Hurricane Dorian moved parallel to the east coast of Florida on Tuesday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Dorian was at latitude 28.4°N and longitude 79.0°W which put it about 95 miles (155 km/h) east of Cape Canaveral, Florida. Dorian was moving toward the north-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (9 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.
Hurricane Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Sebastian Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida and from Savannah River, Georgia to Surf City, North Carolina. Hurricane Watches were in effect for the portion of the coast from Ponte Vedra Beach to Savannah River, Georgia and from Surf City, North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portion of the coast from Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet, Florida and from Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida to Savannah, River, Georgia. Tropical Storm Watches were also in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos and Grand Bahama Island. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the portion of the coast from the North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague, Virginia and for Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point.
Although Hurricane Dorian was moving again, it exhibited the structure of a hurricane that had been stationary for a day and had undergone an eyewall replacement cycle. There was a large ragged eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) at the center of circulation. The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Multiple bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the large core of Hurricane Dorian. Storm near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.
An eyewall replacement cycle caused the size of the circulation around Hurricane Dorian to increase. Winds to hurricane force extended out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation. Wind to tropical storm force extended out about 175 miles (285 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Dorian was 19.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 19.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 39.1.
Hurricane Dorian will move through an environment favorable for intensification on Wednesday. Dorian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, the large size of Hurricane Dorian will limit potential intensification. Hurricane Dorian could intensify a little on Wednesday. An upper level trough over the U.S. will approach Dorian on Wednesday night. The trough will produce southwesterly winds which will cause more vertical wind shear on Thursday.
Hurricane Dorian will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday. The high will steer Dorian toward the north-northwest. The upper level trough will turn Dorian toward the northeast on Wednesday night. On its anticipated track Hurricane Dorian will move nearly parallel to the east coast of Florida on Wednesday. Dorian could approach the coast of South Carolina by Wednesday night.
Elsewhere Tropical Storm Fernand was over the western Gulf of Mexico and Tropical Depression was west of the Cabo Verde Islands. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was located at latitude 23.2°N and longitude 96.4°W which put it about 100 miles (155 km) east-southeast of La Pesca, Mexico. Fernand was moving toward the west at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Altimira, Mexico to the Mouth of the Rio Grande, River.
At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located at latitude 19.1°N and longitude 32.8°W which put it about 615 miles (995 km) west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. It was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.