A tropical cyclone is forming over the Solomon Islands. The system is currently designated as Invest 92P by the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center. At 1:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Invest 92P was located at latitude 8.7°S and longitude 158.3°E which put it about 130 miles (210 km) west-northwest of Honiara, Guadacanal. Invest 92P was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.
A low pressure system over the Solomon Islands was gradually becoming better organized on Monday morning. The U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center was designating the system as Invest 92P. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology classified the system as a tropical low. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of the low pressure system. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the low pressure system. The removal of mass was causing the surface pressure to decrease.
The low pressure system will move through an environment favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone during the next 36 hours. The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of the low pressure system. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Invest 92P is very likely to develop into a tropical cyclone during the next 36 hours.
The low pressure system will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Invest 92P toward the southwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, the low pressure system will move away from the Solomon Islands and over the Coral Sea. Invest 92P will continue to produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain in the Solomon Islands until it moves away. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.