Tropical Storm Madeline passed south of the southern tip of Baja California on Monday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Madeline was located at latitude 20.9°N and longitude 109.8°W which put it about 140 miles (220 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California. Madeline was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Storm Madeline strengthened on Monday before it move south of the southern tip of Baja California. Even though Tropical Storm Madeline was stronger on Monday, the distribution of thunderstorms was still asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands south and west of the center of circulation. Bands in the northern and eastern parts of Madeline’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms southwest of the center of Madeline generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southwest of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Tropical Storm Madeline.

Tropical Storm Madeline will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next several days. Madeline will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25˚C. It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge centered over Mexico. The ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Madeline’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The combination of cooler water and moderate vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Madeline to gradually weaken during the next few days.

Tropical Storm Madeline will move around the southern end of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Madeline toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Madeline will move farther away from Baja California.

Tropical Storm Madeline formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico on Saturday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Madeline was located at latitude 15.9°N and longitude 106.9°W which put it about 520 miles (840 km) south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California. Madeline was moving toward the north at 1 m.p.h. (2 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico strengthened on Saturday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Madeline. The circulation around Tropical Storm Madeline was still organizing on Saturday afternoon. A distinct low level center of circulation was evident on visible satellite images. However, the bands close to the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern and western edges of Madeline’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) in the southern side of Tropical Storm Madeline. The winds in the northern side of Madeline were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Madeline will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Madeline will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over Mexico. The ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Madeline’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be strong enough to prevent it. Tropical Storm Madeline could intensify gradually during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Madeline will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Madeline toward the north-northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Madeline could be south of Baja California on Monday morning.