A surface low pressure system formed over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of the low pressure system was located at latitude 20.8°N and longitude 95.4°W which put it about 70 miles (110 km) east-southeast of Nautla, Mexico. The low was moving toward the north at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.
The northern end of a trough of low pressure moved over the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday and a surface low formed when the trough moved over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. More thunderstorms developed near the center of the low pressure system. Divergence from a surface high pressure system over the U.S. was converging with the northern periphery of the circulation around the surface low and a band of showers and thunderstorms was occurring over the west central Gulf of Mexico. Storms near the center of the low were starting to generate some upper level divergence.
The low pressure system will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours. The low will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move under an upper level ridge where the winds are weak and divergent. The low could intensify slowly if it gets better organized on Thursday. The National Hurricane Center is indicating that there is a 60% probability of formation of either a tropical or subtropical storm. A reconnaissance plane has been tentatively tasked to investigate the low pressure system on Thursday afternoon.
The upper level ridge over the surface low pressure system will steer the low toward the northeast during the next several days. On its anticipated track the low could approach the northeastern coast of the Gulf of Mexico on Friday. The low will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain. The winds will generate higher waves and there could be a storm surge of 3 to 6 feet (1 to 2 meters).