Tag Archives: Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E

Tropical Storm Lidia Threatens Baja California

Tropical Storm Lidia became an increased threat to Baja California as it moved closer on Wednesday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was located at latitude 20.7°N and longitude 109.2°W which put it about 160 miles (255 km) south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California.  Lidia was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Cortes to La Paz, Mexico including Cabo San Lucas.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Cortes to San Evaristo including Cabo San Lucas and from Tempehuaya to Huatabampito, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from San Evaristo to Loreto, Mexico and from Puerto Cortes to Puerto Andresito.

A distinct center of circulation began consolidating in a large area of low pressure previously designated Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E on Wednesday.  Numerous bands of showers and thunderstorms started developing around the consolidating center.  There were more showers and thunderstorms in the southern half of the circulation than there were in the northern half of the circulation.  Thunderstorms southwest of the center of circulation were beginning to generate some upper level divergence, but it was not well developed.  Tropical Storm Lidia formed out of a large low pressure system and it still has a large circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 120 miles (195 km) from the center on the eastern side of Lidia.

Tropical Storm Lidia was in an environment that was marginally favorable for intensification on Wednesday.  Lidia was moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature was near 30°C.  An upper level ridge to the east of Lidia was producing westerly winds which were causing moderate vertical wind shear, especially over the northern half of the circulation.  The environment around Tropical Storm Lidia is forecast to become a little more favorable for intensification on Thursday.  The upper level winds are forecast to become weaker, which would reduce the wind shear.  Lidia will still be moving over very warm water and it should intensify on Thursday.  The rate of intensification could increase as the core of the tropical storm becomes more organized.  There is a chance that Lidia could strengthen into a hurricane which is why there is a Hurricane Watch for part of Baja California.

Lidia is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge, which is steering the tropical storm toward the north-northwest.  A general north-northwesterly motion is expected to continue for another day or two.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Lidia could reach the southern tip of Baja California by Thursday evening.  In addition to gusty winds Tropical Storm Lidia will produce very heavy rain.  Heavy rain falling on the steep terrain of Baja California creates the risk of flash floods.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E Prompts Hurricane Watch for Baja California

The National Hurricane Center is forecasting that a weather system currently designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E will become a tropical storm and affect Baja California.  The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning for the portion of the coast from Todos Santo to Los Barriles including Cabo San Lucas.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E was located at latitude 17.2°N and longitude 107.2°W which put it about 430 miles (695 km) south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California.  It was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

The circulation of Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E is in the early stages of organization.  There is a large counterclockwise circulation over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Mexico.  Numerous showers and thunderstorms are forming within the circulation, but there is no well defined center of circulation.  There are fewer showers and thunderstorms in the eastern portion of the circulation.  An upper level ridge centered over Mexico is generating brisk easterly winds which are blowing over the top of the circulation.  Those winds are causing moderate vertical wind shear and the system has not yet begun to generate much upper level divergence.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  So, there is plenty of energy in the upper ocean to support intensification.  The strength of the upper level winds is forecast to diminish and the wind shear is likely to decrease.  If the wind shear decreases, then the environment will become more favorable for intensification.  Intensification is likely to be slow while the circulation becomes more organized and develops a distinct low level center.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E could become a tropical storm on Wednesday.  It has a chance to intensify to a hurricane on Thursday.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge is steering the system toward the northwest and a general northwesterly motion is expected to continue for another day or two.  On its anticipated track the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E could approach the southern part of Baja California by late on Thursday.  It could be a strong tropical storm or a hurricane at that time.  Locally heavy rain falling on the steep terrain of Baja California always creates a risk for flash floods.