Typhoon Soudelor Making Landfall in Taiwan

Powerful Typhoon Soudelor is making landfall on the east coast of Taiwan.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Soudelor was located at latitude 23.8°N and longitude 122.1°E which put it about 125 miles (200 km) southeast of Taipei, Taiwan.  Soudelor was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 944 mb.

Soudelor is a large and powerful typhoon.  Winds to hurricane force extend out to 45 miles (70 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend out up to 250 miles (400 km) from the center.  Chiang Kai Shek airport reported winds to 53 m.p.h. (85 km/h) with gusts to 87 m.p.h. (140 km/h) when the center was still 125 miles away.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Soudelor is 22.1, the Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 17.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 39.8, which means that Soudelor is capable of causing regional major damage.  The HWISI for Soudelor is most similar to that for Hurricane Dennis when it hit the northwest Florida in 2005.  Soudelor is not quite as strong as Dennis was, but it is larger.  In addition to strong winds, heavy rain and the mountainous terrain of Taiwan create the potential for serious flooding.

Soudelor will weaken as it moves across Taiwan, but it could still be a typhoon when it emerges over the Taiwan Strait.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Soudelor could make a second landfall near Fuzhou, China in 12 to 18 hours.  It could also bring strong winds and heavy rains to part of eastern China.

Tiny Hilda Intensifies Into a Hurricane

After not changing much during the overnight hours, Hilda intensified rapidly into a hurricane on Friday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Hilda was located at latitude 12.8°N and longitude 138.3°W which put it about 1215 miles (1950 km) east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.  Hilda was moving toward the wet at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Hurricane has a very small circulation.  Hurricane force winds extend out less than 15 miles (25 km) from the center of circulation and tropical storm force winds extend out about 70 miles (110 km) from the center.  In spite of its small size, the circulation is well organized.  A clear eye is visible on satellite images and there is a well formed eyewall around the eye.  There are not  many spiral bands because of the small size of the circulation.

Hilda is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 29°C.  It is in an area where the upper level winds are light and there is not much vertical wind shear.  Further intensification is likely and rapid intensification is possible during the next 24 hours.  Eventually, when Hilda moves farther west it will move over cooler SSTs and encounter more vertical wind shear.  Given the small size of Hilda, it could also weaken very quickly when it moves into a more hostile environment.

A subtropical ridge is steering Hilda toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  When Hilda gets closer to Hawaii, southwesterly winds in the upper levels are expected to turn it more toward the northwest.

Strong Typhoon Soudelor Approaching Taiwan

Typhoon Soudelor continued to move steadily toward Taiwan on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Soudelor was located at latitude 22.1°N and longitude 125.2°E which put it about 340 miles (550 km) south-southwest of Okinawa and about 420 miles (670 km) east-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan.  Soudelor was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 944 mb.

Soudelor is a large symmetrical typhoon with multiple rainbands.  It has well-developed upper level divergence.  Soudelor completed an eyewall replacement cycle and it is now intensifying again.  The typhoon is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C and there is little vertical wind shear.  It is in a favorable environment and further intensification is possible before it makes landfall in Taiwan.  Soudelor will weaken while it moves across Taiwan.

A subtropical ridge is steering Soudelor toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for another day or two.  On its anticipated track Soudelor will make landfall in Taiwan within 24 hours.  It will bring strong winds and heavy rainfall to Taiwan.  Soudelor has the potential to be a destructive typhoon.

Small Tropical Storm Hilda Intensifying Rapidly

Small Tropical Storm Hilda intensified rapidly on Thursday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Hilda was located at latitude 12.7°N and longitude 133.4°W which put it about 1590 miles (2550 km) east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.  Hilda was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 70 m.p.h. (115 km).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

Hilda is a very small tropical storm.  The area of tropical storm force winds only extends outward about 40 miles (65 km) from the center.  Even though the circulation is small, it is well organized and there are hints of a tiny eye trying to form in the center of Hilda.  Hilda is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28.5°C.  The upper level winds are very light and there is little vertical wind shear.  The thunderstorms in the core of Hilda are generating upper level divergence which is pumping out mass.  Hilda is likely to strengthen more during the next day or two because of the favorable environment.  However, small tropical cyclones can weaken just as fast as they intensify.  When Hilda moves farther west it will encounter some of the same wind shear that is affecting Tropical Storm Guillermo.  As a result, Hilda is likely to weaken when it gets closer to Hawaii.

A subtropical ridge is steering HIlda toward the west and a generally west-northwestward track is expected during the next several days.  As Hilda moves farther west it could turn more toward the northwest, much like Guillermo did when it neared Hawaii.

Typhoon Soudelor Heading for Taiwan

Typhoon Soudelor moved steadily closer to Taiwan on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Soudelor was located at latitude 20.6°N and longitude 129.7°E which put it about 450 miles (725 km) south-southeast of Okinawa and about 730 miles (1170 km) east-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan.  Soudelor was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (23 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

Typhoon Soudelor went through an eyewall replacement cycle that resulted in temporary weakening while the inner eye dissipated and the outer eyewall contracted.  Soudelor appears to have completed the cycle and the convection in the new eyewall is growing.  The typhoon is in a very favorable environment.  The Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  Upper level winds are very light and there is almost no vertical wind shear.  The circulation is very symmetrical with multiple rainbands.  Upper level divergence is pumping out mass in all directions.  Soudelor is likely to re-intensify during the next two days.

A subtropical ridge is steering Soudelor toward the west-northwest and that general steering pattern is expected to continue for another two or three days.  On its anticipated track Soudelor would reach Taiwan in less than 48 hours.  It could be a large and powerful typhoon when it gets there.  It is likely to bring strong winds and heavy rain.  Soudelor will weaken as it crosses Taiwan and then it will make a second landfall in China.

Guillermo Weakening, Tropical Storm Watch Discontinued

Tropical Storm Guillermo weakened further and the Tropical Storm Watch for portions of Hawaii was discontinued.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Guillermo was located at latitude 21.4°N and longitude 151.7°W which put it about 250 miles (400 km) east-northeast of Hilo, Hawaii and about 400 miles (640 km) east of Honolulu.  Guillermo was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.  The Tropical Storm Watch for Hawaii County and Maui County including the islands of Maui, Molokai, Lanai and Kahoolawe has been discontinued.

Strong southwesterly winds in the upper levels are creating significant vertical wind shear over Tropical Storm Guillermo.  The wind shear has distorted the circulation and the only thunderstorms are in outer rainbands well northeast of the center of the tropical storm.  The wind shear is expected to continue and Guillermo will continue to weaken during the next several days.

Since Guillermo is no longer producing tall thunderstorms near the center of circulation, it is being steered by winds in the lower troposphere.  Those winds are expected to carry the weakening tropical storm north of the Hawaiian Islands.  Since Guillermo or its remnants is expected to move north of Hawaii, the Tropical Storm Watch was discontinued.

Guillermo Weakens, Tropical Storm Watch Issued for Hawaii

Guillermo weakened below hurricane intensity on Monday and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center issued a Tropical Storm Watch for some of the Hawaiian Islands.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Guillermo was located at latitude 18.1°N and longitude 147.4°W which put it about 515 miles (830 km) east of Hilo, Hawaii.  Guillermo was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (100 km/h) and there were gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.  A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Hawaii County and Maui County including the islands of Maui, Molokai, Lanai and Kahoolawe.

An upper level trough north of Guillermo is causing strong southwesterly winds over the top of the circulation.  Significant vertical wind shear is affecting the tropical storm and is weakening it.  The southwesterly winds are also inhibiting upper level divergence on the western side of the storm.  Most of the thunderstorms are occurring in rainbands east of the center of circulation.  The vertical wind shear is expected to increase later this week and Guillermo will be moving over cooler Sea Surface Temperatures.  The weakening trend is expected to continue.

A subtropical ridge is pushing Guillermo toward the west-northwest and the southwesterly winds in the upper levels are turning it more toward the northwest.  That general motion is expected to continue for the next day or two.  On its anticipated track Guillermo is expected to pass north of Hawaii.  However, if it weakens a little faster than expected and the circulation is not as tall, then it could be steered by winds lower in the atmosphere.  Those winds could steer it more toward the west which would bring it nearer to Hawaii.  That possibility prompted the issuance of a Tropical Storm Watch for some of the Hawaiian Islands.

Typhoon Soudelor Becomes Equivalent of a Category 5 Hurricane

Typhoon Soudelor continued to intensify rapidly on Monday and it reached the equivalent of a Category 5 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Soudelor was located at latitude 18.0°N and longitude 140.1°E which put it about 1020 miles (1640 km) east-southeast of Okinawa.  Soudelor was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 215 m.p.h. (350 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 907 mb.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Soudelor was 40.4, the Hurricane Size Index was 13.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index was 54.0.  These indices mean that Soudelor is capable of producing regional catastrophic damage.

The upper level winds around Soudelor are very light and there is almost no vertical wind shear.  The typhoon has strong upper level divergence in all directions which is pumping out mass and causing the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.  It is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C and the circulation is extracting plenty of energy from the upper ocean.  The environment would support further intensification, but Soudelor is already a very powerful typhoon.  Soudelor rapidly completed an eyewall replacement cycle earlier today and future cycles could produce fluctuations in intensity.  Soudelor could remain a very intense typhoon for several more days.

A strong subtropical ridge is steering Typhoon Soudelor toward the west-northwest and that general steering pattern is expected to continue for the next few days.  On its anticipated track Soudelor could be near the southernmost islands of Japan in three days, near northern Taiwan in four days and near the coast of China in less than five days.  Although it is likely to weaken before it reaches any of those locations, it could still be a powerful typhoon at that time.

Hurricane Guillermo Weakening As It Moves Toward Hawaii

A reconnaissance aircraft confirmed a weakening trend in Hurricane Guillermo that had been suggested by satellite imagery.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Guillermo was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 145.0°W which put it about 725 miles (1165 km) east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.  Guillermo was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

An upper level trough north of Guillermo is producing southwesterly winds over the top of the circulation.  Those winds are causing vertical wind shear and are inhibiting the upper level divergence on the western side of the circulation.  In addition Guillermo is gradually moving over cooler Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs).  A combination of wind shear and cooler SSTs will continue to weaken the hurricane.

A subtropical ridge is steering Guillermo toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue.  On its anticipated track Guillermo would approach the Big Island of Hawaii in about 72 hours.  It will likely be a tropical storm at that time.

Typhoon Soudelor Intensifies Rapidly and Moves Over Saipan

Typhoon Soudelor intensified rapidly during the 12 hours before it moved directly over Saipan.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Soudelor was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 145.3°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) west-northwest of Saipan.  It was moving toward the west-northwest at 11 m.p.h. (18 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.  The airport on Saipan measured sustained wind to 54 m.p.h. (87 km/h) and wind gusts to 91 m.p.h. (147 km/h).  However, there were several observations when no wind speed was reported.  The minimum surface pressure reported was 958 mb.

Typhoon Soudelor organized quickly after the primary band wrapped completely around the center of circulation.  A tiny (4 mile wide) pinhole eye developed at the center of circulation and there are multiple bands of thunderstorms rotating around the center.   Soudelor is over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and there is little vertical wind shear.  Further intensification is likely and Soudelor could reach Super Typhoon status.

A subtropical ridge is steering Soudelor toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for the next few days.  On its anticipated track Soudelor could approach the southernmost islands of Japan or Taiwan in four or five days.