Hurricane Gonzalo completed an eyewall replacement cycle on Wednesday and it is now stronger than it was.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Gonzalo was located at latitude 25.5°N and longitude 68.7°W which put it about 525 miles south-southwest of Bermuda.  Gonzalo was moving toward the north at 9 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. which made Gonzalo a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  It had a Hurricane Intensity Index of 28.3, a Hurricane Size Index of 13.9 and a HI of 42.2, which means it was capable of producing regional serious damage.  The minimum surface pressure was 940 mb.  A Hurricane Warning has been issued for Bermuda.

Gonzalo is moving around the western end of a high pressure system located toward its east.  Southwesterly winds on the leading edge of an upper level trough over the eastern U.S. are expected to turn Gonzalo toward the north-northeast.  The stronger winds in the upper level trough will also make Gonzalo start to move faster.  Gonzalo is likely to approach Bermuda on Friday afternoon.

Gonzalo is still in a environment that can support a major hurricane.  It is over warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and the upper level winds are relatively light.  When the upper level trough begins to affect Gonzalo, stronger winds will generate more wind shear and the hurricane should begin to weaken.  However, Gonzalo could still be a Major Hurricane when it reaches Bermuda.  After Gonzalo moves north of Bermuda, the weakening trend will continue as cooler SSTs and drier air affect the hurricane.  Gonzalo will make a transition to a strong extratropical cyclone as it moves across the North Atlantic.

Gonzalo is forecast to take a track very similar to the one taken by Hurricane Fabian in 2003.  Fabian was a Major Hurricane that hit Bermuda.  Fabian did much damage to roofs and vegetation and it did an estimated 300 million dollars of property damage.  Winds speeds were greater at higher elevations.  Fabian also generated large waves and a storm surge of ten feet on the south shore of Bermuda.

Hurricane Gonzalo intensified more rapidly on Tuesday and it reached Major Hurricane intensity on Tuesday afternoon.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT the center of Hurricane Gonzalo was located at latitude 22.2°N and longitude 66.6°W which put it about 705 miles south of Bermuda.  Gonzalo was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h., which made Gonzalo a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.  Gonzalo is now the strongest Atlantic hurricane so far in 2014.  A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Bermuda.

Gonzalo is still being steered by the subtropical high pressure system.  As it reaches the western end of the high, it will turn more toward the north.  Numerical models continue to indicate that southwesterly winds on the eastern side of a large upper trough moving over the eastern U.S. will turn Gonzalo toward the northeast later this week.  Gonzalo could be approaching Bermuda by Friday.

A smaller upper low located west of Gonzalo is creating some wind shear over the hurricane, but clearly the shear did not inhibit rapid intensification on Tuesday.  Gonzalo will be moving over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and so some further intensification is possible.  There could be some fluctuations in intensity if an eyewall replacement cycle starts to develop.  Eventually, the same upper level trough that should turn Gonzalo toward the northeast will generate stronger upper level winds and more wind shear.  Current guidance indicates that Gonzalo will still be a hurricane when it approaches Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo is moving through an environment favorable for intensification and it has become a hurricane.  At. 5:00 p.m. EDT the center of Hurricane Gonzalo was located at latitude 17.9°N and longitude 62.9°W which put it about 20 miles southeast of St. Martin and about 140 miles east-southeast of St. Thomas.  Gonzalo was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed has increased to 75 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure decreased to 984 mb.

Gonzalo is moving over Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) that are warmer than 29°C.  An eye has formed and there appears to be well developed upper level outflow to pump out mass.  Conditions favor further intensification and Gonzalo could reach Major Hurricane intensity.  There is an upper level low to the northeast of Gonzalo, but it does not appear to be generating significant wind shear.  In fact, the upper level outflow from Gonzalo appears to flowing over the top of the upper low.

Gonzalo is moving northwest as it curves around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the central Atlantic.  It is likely to gradually turn more toward the north as it gets to the western end of the high.  Numerical models are indicating that a large upper level trough that is contributing to severe weather over parts of the eastern U.S. will move eastward and turn Gonzalo to the northeast later in the week.

Hurricane Warnings have been issued for the British Virgin Islands and St. Martin.  Hurricane Watches and Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, the U.S. Virgin Islands, St. Maartin and Anguilla.  Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for St. Barthelemy, Saba, St. Eustatius, Barbuda, Antigua, St. Kitts, Nevis and Monteserrat.

Thunderstorms developed near the center of Fay and an inner core of convection formed.  The thunderstorms released enough latent energy in the middle and upper troposphere to create a warm core.  As a result the structure of Fay changed from a subtropical storm into a tropical storm.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located at latitude 27.9°N and longitude 65.3°W which put it about 305 miles south of Bermuda.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

The upper level outflow around Fay is well developed on the west side of the circulation.  It is over warmer Sea Surface Temperatures and some further intensification is possible.  When Fay gets farther north it will run into stronger upper level winds from the west.  Those winds will generate wind shear and start to weaken the storm.

Fay is moving around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system and it should continue to move northward today.  Eventually the upper level westerly winds will force Fay to turn toward the northeast.

The Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

A large upper level low pressure system interacting with  the northern end of a tropical wave has produced a subtropical cyclone.  A reconnaissance plane investigated the system this afternoon and found that it had enough organization to be classified as a subtropical storm.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT the center of Subtropical Storm Fay was located at latitude 24.7°N and longitude 64.0°W, which put it about 525 miles south of Bermuda.  Fay was moving toward the north-northwest at 12 m.p.h. The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Fay is moving around the western end of a high pressure system located to its east.  It should turn more toward the northeast when it gets farther north and start to feel the influence of the midlatitude westerlies.

Fay currently has the typical hybrid structure of a subtropical cyclone the consists of one long band that coils about half to three quarters of the way around the system.  More thunderstorms are developing closer to the center of circulation.  If an inner core of thunderstorms develops and they release enough energy into the middle and upper levels of the storm to create a warm core, then Fay could make a transition to a tropical storm.

Fay is over warm Sea Surface Temperatures which create a potential for intensification, but it is also experiencing some wind shear from the nearby upper level low.  It could intensify some, especially if it develops an inner core.  Wind shear will increase as Fay moves farther north and it gets closer to upper level westerly winds.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Bermuda.

The maximum sustained wind speed in Hurricane Edouard is now 115 m.p.h. which makes it a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale and a Major Hurricane.  Edouard is the first Major Hurricane of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.  It is the first hurricane to reach Major Hurricane intensity over the Atlantic basin since Hurricane Sandy briefly was a Major Hurricane south of Cuba in 2012.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Edouard was located at latitude 31.1°N and longitude 57.8°N which put it about 420 miles east of Bermuda, about 1060 miles east-southeast of Cape Hatteras and about 1720 miles west of Fayal Island in the Azores.  Edouard was moving toward the north-northwest at 13 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

Edouard is moving around the western portion of the subtropical high pressure system.  It should gradually turn more to the right until it reaches the upper level westerlies which should accelerate it eastward.  Some model guidance suggest that Edouard could approach the Azores during the weekend, while other models forecast a track north of the Azores.

Edouard could intensify a little more today, but cooler Sea Surface Temperatures and stronger westerly winds will begin to weaken the hurricane when it turns eastward.

A small surface low pressure system formed just north of the Bahamas on Thursday and the National Hurricane Center has designated this system Invest 92L.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the low was centered at latitude 27.2°N and longitude 79.1°W which put it about 70 miles east-northeast of Ft. Lauderdale, Florida.  The low was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure was 1012 mb.

An east-west upper level ridge over the southeastern U.S. and an upper low east of the Carolinas were combining to produce strong northerly winds over the surface low.  Those winds were creating considerable wind shear and were blowing much of the thunderstorm activity to the south of the low.   The shear is likely to continue for the next day or two and it is likely to inhibit significant intensification of the low.  The northerly winds were diverging on the south side of the low and the upper level divergence did cause the surface pressure to decrease by several millibars on Thursday.

The low is likely to move across south Florida during the weekend and it could enhance the rainfall in that area.  If the surface low remains intact and moves out over the Gulf of Mexico, it could move into an area where the wind shear is less.  Some models are suggesting that the low could become a tropical cyclone over the Gulf of Mexico, but that is contingent on its circulation retaining its integrity and the shear decreasing.  If a tropical cyclone does form, it could move toward the western or northwestern Gulf Coast during the early part of next week.

This low bears watching because of its proximity to the U.S., but it’s future is highly uncertain.  The wind shear could cause the system to dissipate as it crosses over Florida.  On the other hand, the low could move just far enough south to get away from the strongest upper level winds and then the low could emerge over the Gulf of Mexico in a couple of days.  There is time to watch the evolution of this system.

A core region of convection developed in the center of a large low pressure system associated with the northern portion of a tropical wave and the system was classified as Tropical Storm Edouard.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT the center of Edouard was located at latitude 17.3°N and longitude 39.4°W which put it about 1020 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands and about 2700 miles east-southeast of Miami, Florida.  Edouard was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Edouard is likely to move in a general west-northwest to northwest track during the next several days before taking a more northward turn early next week.  This track would keep Edouard out in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean during the next five days where it will pose no immediate threat to any land areas.

The Sea Surface Temperatures in the subtropical Atlantic Ocean are several degrees above normal and Edouard should be able to extract plenty of energy from the ocean.  As long as the upper level winds are not too strong Edouard should be able to intensify and it is likely to become a hurricane.