Category Archives: Western North Pacific

Western Pacific Typhoons and Tropical Storms

Typhoon Phanfone Intensifying Rapidly

A very favorable environment of warm Sea Surface Temperatures and light upper level winds is allowing Typhoon Phanfone to intensify rapidly.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Phanfone was located at latitude 19.5°N and longitude 139.0°E which put it about 400 miles south-southwest of Iwo To.  Phanfone was moving toward the west-northwest at 17 m.p.h.  It had maximum sustained winds of 120 m.p.h. and gusts to 150 m.p.h.

Phanfone is moving around the western end of the subtropical high pressure system and its track should take a more northward turn.  When Phanfone gets to a higher latitude, it will encounter the upper level westerly flow which will turn it northeastward.  Guidance from numerical models suggest that Phanfone could be south of Japan in about 72 hours.

Phanfone will be in a favorable environment during the next 36 hours and further intensification is possible.  When Phanfone encounters the upper level westerly flow, wind shear will increase and it will start to weaken.  Phanfone will eventually make a transition to an extratropical cyclone as it moves northeastward over the North Pacific.

 

Tropical Storm Phanfone Forms East of Guam

A large area of low pressure east of Guam developed a core of thunderstorms and sufficient organization to prompt its classification as Tropical Storm Phanfone.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Phanfone was located at latitude 15.4°N and longitude 148.3°W which put it about 160 miles east of Saipan.  Phanfone was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 65 m.p.h.

Phanfone is expected to continue to move in a northwesterly direction for the next two or three days as it moves around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system.  Later in the week it is expected to take a more northerly turn and it could be south of Japan by the weekend.

Both the oceanic and atmospheric environment around Phanfone’s projected track appear favorable for intensification.  Phanfone is expected to become a typhoon later this week and a period of more rapid intensification is possible.  Eventually, as Phanfone moves farther north, westerly winds in the upper levels will increase wind shear and begin a weakening trend.

 

Tropical Storm Kammuri Develops North of Guam

A tropical depression north of Guam intensified into Tropical Storm Kammuri on Thursday.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Kammuri was located at latitude 21.7°N and longitude 146.3°E which put it about 375 miles east-southeast of Iwo To.  Kammuri was moving toward the north-northwest at 8 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h.
Kammuri is moving around the western edge of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge should continue to steer Kammuri toward the north until it begins to feel the effects of the upper level westerly winds.  The upper level westerlies should eventually turn Kammuri toward the northeast and the probability is high that it will pass southeast of Japan.
Kammuri is in a region of moderate wind shear and further intensification is possible.  It is also possible that Kammuri could reach typhoon intensity before the upper level westerly winds start to increase the wind shear.

Tropical Storm Fung-Wong Near Taiwan

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Fung-Wong was located at latitude 21.5°N and longitude 120.0°W which put it about 250 miles south-southwest of Taipei Taiwan.  Fung-Wong was moving just slightly east of due north at 8 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 75 m.p.h.

Fung-Wong will likely move near or across Taiwan during the next few hours.  Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, especially in locations where the circulation around Fung-Wong pushes air up the slopes of mountains.  Flooding may be an issue in areas that experience heavy rainfall.  The heaviest rainfall will likely occur on the eastern slopes of mountains as Fung-Wong moves across southern Taiwan and brings easterly winds to those areas.  However, the potential for flooding along the western slopes of mountains, especially in northern Taiwan, may exist as the tropical storm moves north of the island and the wind shifts to a more westerly direction.

Fung-Wong will likely weaken as the circulation in the lower levels is disrupted by the mountains.  It could maintain tropical storm intensity and move toward eastern China once the center emerges back over the water.

 

Tropical Storm Fung-Wong Near Northern Philippines

Tropical Storm Fung-Wong is moving near the northernmost part of the Philippines.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Fung-Wong was located latitude 18.0°N and longitude 122.5°E, which put it about 250 miles north-northeast of Manila.  Fung-Wong was moving toward the northwest at 20 m.p.h.  The maximum wind speed was 45 m.p.h.

The structure around Fung-Wong is not particularly well organized.  Most of the thunderstorm activity is occurring southeast of the the center of circulation.  Wind shear is inhibiting the intensification of the tropical storm.  Slow intensification is possible if the upper level winds slow down.

Fung-Wong is expected to take a turn more toward the north and it could move toward Taiwan during the next 36-48 hours.

 

Typhoon Kalmaegi Approaching Coast of Southeast Asia

Typhoon Kalmaegi continues to move toward the west-northwest and the center is very near the south coast of China.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Kalmaegi was located at latitude 20.0°N and longitude 111.4°E which put it about 230 miles southwest of Hong Kong.  Kalmaegi was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h.  Kalmaegi has the potential to bring strong winds and heavy rain to portions of southern China and northern Vietnam.

Typhoon Kalmaegi Approaching Northern Philippines

At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday Typhoon Kalmaegi was located at latitude 14.1°N and longitude 126.6°E which put it about 360 miles east of Manila, Phillipines.  Kalmaegi was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h.  It had maximum sustained winds of 75 m.p.h.

Kalmaegi is expected to begin to affect the northern Philippines during the next 24 hours.  Further intensification is possible and Kalmaegi could also bring locally heavy rainfall.  The west-northwesterly motion is expected to continue and Kalmaegi could head in the general direction of Hong Kong during the next several days.