Monthly Archives: July 2022

Tropical Storm Estelle Forms South of Mexico

Tropical Storm Estelle formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Friday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was located at latitude 13.2°N and longitude 102.0°W which put it about 290 miles (470 km) south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Estelle was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

An area of low pressure over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico strengthened on Friday night and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Estelle. The circulation around Estelle exhibited more organization. More thunderstorms developed near the center of Tropical Storm Estelle. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Estelle’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Estelle. The wind in the other parts of Estelle’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Estelle will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Estelle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under an upper level ridge near the west coast of Mexico. The upper level winds are weak in the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Estelle will intensify during the next 36 hours and it could strengthen to a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Estelle will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Estelle toward the west-northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Estelle will move away from the west coast of Mexico.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Darby weakened east-southeast of Hawaii. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Darby was located at latitude 17.7°N and longitude 149.4°W which put it about 400 miles (640 km) east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Darby was moving toward the west at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Hurricane Darby Moves over the Central Pacific

Hurricane Darby moved over the Central Pacific Ocean on Thursday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Darby was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 140.9°W which put it about 955 miles (1540 km) east of Hilo, Hawaii. Darby was moving toward the west-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

Hurricane Darby moved west of longitude 140°W west on Thursday morning which meant that it crossed from the Eastern North Pacific basin to the Central Pacific. A small eye persisted at the center of Darby’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The circulation around Hurricane Darby was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Darby. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Darby will move into an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Darby will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26˚C. An upper level trough located to the northwest of Hurricane Darby will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Darby’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. More wind shear will cause Hurricane Darby to weaken. Since the circulation around Hurricane Darby is so small, the vertical wind shear could cause Darby to weaken quickly.

Hurricane Darby will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Central Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Darby toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Darby could be southeast of Hawaii by Saturday. Darby is forecast to be much weaker by that time.

Major Hurricane Darby Churns Toward the Central Pacific

Major Hurricane Darby churned toward the Central Pacific Ocean on Tuesday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Darby was located at latitude 14.7°N and longitude 129.7°W which put it about 1410 miles (2270 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Darby was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Hurricane Darby had a small, but very symmetrical, circulation on Tuesday. A circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Hurricane Darby. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the small core of Hurricane Darby. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of Darby’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of circulation.

Darby continued to exhibit the appearance of a small, annular hurricane. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Darby was 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 5.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 28.8.

Hurricane Darby will move into an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Darby will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Darby will move over cooler water during the next several days as it moves toward the west. Darby is likely to weaken gradually as it moves over the cooler water.

Hurricane Darby will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Darby toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Darby will cross into the Central Pacific Ocean on Wednesday night.

Darby Rapidly Intensifies to a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Darby rapidly intensified to a major hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean between Mexico and Hawaii on Monday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Darby was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 123.4°W which put it about 1050 miles (1690 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Darby was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 965 mb.

Hurricane Darby continued to intensify rapidly on Monday morning. A circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Hurricane Darby. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the small core of Hurricane Darby. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of Darby’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.

The circulation around Hurricane Darby was small but very symmetrical. Darby looked like a small, annular hurricane. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Darby was 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 5.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.0.

Hurricane Darby will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Darby will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Darby could continue to intensify during the 18 hours. The small size of the circulation around Hurricane Darby means that the intensity could continue to change rapidly if the environmental conditions change. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the small core of Darby’s circulation, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Hurricane Darby to weaken.

Hurricane Darby will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Darby toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Darby will move farther away from Baja California. Darby will cross into the Central Pacific Ocean later this week.

Hurricane Darby Rapidly Intensifies to Cat. 2

Hurricane Darby rapidly intensified to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean between Mexico and Hawaii on Sunday night. At 6:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Darby was located at latitude 14.5°N and longitude 122.2°W which put it about 995 miles (1595 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Darby was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

Hurricane Darby rapidly intensified on Sunday night. A circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was evident on infrared and microwave satellite images. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the small core of Darby’s circulation. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of Darby’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.

The circulation around Hurricane Darby was small but very symmetrical. Darby looked like a small, annular hurricane. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Darby was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 4.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 22.3.

Hurricane Darby will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Darby will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Darby is likely to continue to intensify during the 24 hours. Darby could strengthen to a major hurricane. The small size of the circulation around Hurricane Darby means that the intensity could continue to change rapidly if the environmental conditions change. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the small core of Darby’s circulation, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause fluctuations in intensity.

Hurricane Darby will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Darby toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Darby will move farther away from Baja California. Darby could cross into the Central Pacific Ocean later this week.

Darby Strengthens to a Hurricane Southwest of Baja California

Former Tropical Storm Darby strengthened to a hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Sunday evening. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Darby was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 120.6°W which put it about 905 miles (1455 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Darby was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Darby strengthened to a hurricane on Sunday. A very small circular eye appeared intermittently on satellite images of Hurricane Darby. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the small core of Darby’s circulation. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Hurricane Darby. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Darby.

Hurricane Darby will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Darby will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Darby is likely to continue to intensify during the 36 hours. The small size of the circulation around Hurricane Darby means that it could change intensity rapidly if the environmental conditions change. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the small core of Darby’s circulation, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause fluctuations in intensity.

Hurricane Darby will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Darby toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Darby will move farther away from Baja California. Darby could cross into the Central Pacific Ocean later this week.

Tropical Storm Darby Forms South of Baja California

Tropical Storm Darby formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Saturday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Darby was located at latitude 14.3°N and longitude 114.9°W which put it about 680 miles (1090 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Darby was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A well defined low pressure system formed in a tropical wave located south of Baja California on Saturday and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Darby. A small, well defined center of circulation was evident on visible and infrared satellite images. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Darby. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Darby will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Darby will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Darby will intensify during the 48 hours and it could strengthen to a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Darby will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Darby toward the west during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Darby will move farther away from Baja California.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, the National Hurricane Center designated former Tropical Storm Bonnie as a Post Tropical Cyclone. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of former Tropical Storm Bonnie was located at latitude 19.5°N and longitude 129.4°W which put it about 1275 miles (2055 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California. Bonnie was moving toward the west at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

Bonnie Weakens to a Tropical Storm

Former Hurricane Bonnie weakened to a tropical storm as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Friday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was located at latitude 18.6°N and longitude 121.8°W which put it about 825 miles (1325 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Bonnie was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (1305 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

The circulation around former Hurricane Bonnie spun down gradually as it moved over cooler water in the Eastern North Pacific southwest of Baja California. The low level circulation around Tropical Storm Bonnie was still well organized. However, thunderstorms in bands revolving around the center of Bonnie weakened. Many of the bands consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The remaining thunderstorms did not extend as high into the atmosphere and they did not generate much upper level divergence. The inflow of mass at the lower levels caused the surface pressure to increase, because there was not enough upper level divergence to remove the incoming mass. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Bonnie.

Tropical Storm Bonnie will move south of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Bonnie toward the west-northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Bonnie will move farther away from Baja California during the next several days.

Tropical Storm Bonnie will continue to weaken gradually during the next few days. Bonnie will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24˚C. Tropical Storm Bonnie will not be able to extract enough energy from the upper ocean to maintain its circulation. So, the circulation will continue to spin down gradually during the next few days.

Hurricane Bonnie Churns Southwest of Baja California

Hurricane Bonnie churned over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Thursday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located at latitude 18.1°N and longitude 116.9°W which put it about 560 miles (905 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Bonnie was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Hurricane Bonnie appeared to complete an eyewall replacement cycle on Thursday. The previous small eye and eyewall was replaced by a larger eye. A circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) was present at the center of Bonnie on Thursday night. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Bonnie. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Bonnie was still small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Bonnie. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Bonnie was 13.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 6.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 20.7.

Hurricane Bonnie will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Bonnie will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26˚C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bonnie’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Hurricane Bonnie is likely to weaken during the next 36 hours, as it moves over cooler water.

Hurricane Bonnie will move south of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Bonnie toward the west-northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Bonnie will move farther away from Baja California during the next several days.

Hurricane Bonnie Moves South of Baja California

Hurricane Bonnie moved south of Baja California on Wednesday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located at latitude 16.5°N and longitude 110.1°W which put it about 440 miles (710 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California. Bonnie was moving toward the west-northwest at 11 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

Hurricane Bonnie moved toward the west-northwest over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Wednesday afternoon. A small circular eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) was at the center of Bonnie’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the small eye and eyewall at times, and it appeared that there could be concentric eyewalls. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the small core of Hurricane Bonnie. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Bonnie was still small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of Bonnie. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Bonnie was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 5.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 23.2.

Hurricane Bonnie will move through an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Bonnie will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bonnie’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Hurricane Bonnie is likely to weaken slowly during the next 24 hours, when it moves over slightly cooler water. If concentric eyewalls develop and persist, then an eyewall replacement cyclone could cause Bonnie to weaken more quickly. Since the circulation around Hurricane Bonnie is so small, any change in the environment could have a big impact on the intensity of Bonnie.

Hurricane Bonnie will move south of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Bonnie toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Bonnie will southwest of Baja California during the next several days.