Monthly Archives: March 2023

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Stalls West of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Freddy stalled west of Madagascar on Monday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 23.8°S and longitude 42.6°E which put it about 110 miles (185 km) west-southwest of Toliara, Madagascar. Freddy was moving toward the west at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy gradually strengthened on Monday while it was stalled west of Madagascar. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Freddy’s circulation and an eye appeared to be forming. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (300 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will be in an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Freddy will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will be in an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will intensify during the next 24 hours. Freddy is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon within 36 hours.

A high pressure system south of Madagascar will start to steer Tropical Cyclone Freddy toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Freddy will gradually move farther away from Madagascar on Tuesday. Freddy could approach the coast of Mozambique by the end of the week. Tropical Cyclone Freddy is likely to be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it approaches Mozambique.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Brings Wind and Rain to Southwest Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Freddy brought wind and rain to southwest Madagascar on Sunday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 23.8°S and longitude 43.0°E which put it about 60 miles (95 km) west-southwest of Toliara, Madagascar. Freddy was moving toward the south-southwest at 4 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy brought wind and rain to southwest Madagascar on Sunday night, when the center of Freddy stalled just off the coast. An upper level trough over southern Africa was producing northwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear was affecting both the vertical and the horizontal structure of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. The wind shear was causing the vertical structure of Freddy to tilt to the southeast with height. So, the center of circulation in the middle troposphere was southeast of the center near the surface. The wind shear was also causing the distribution of thunderstorms to be asymmetric. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Bands in the western side of Freddy’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will be in an area where the steering currents are weak during the next 24 hours. The center of Freddy’s circulation is likely to meander just west of the coast of southwest Madagascar on Monday. Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Freddy will continue to drop heavy rain over southwest Madagascar. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. A high pressure system south of Madagascar will start to push Freddy back toward the northwest in a day or so. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Freddy could approach Mozambique by the end of the week.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will be in an environment only marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Freddy will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. However, the upper level trough over southern Africa will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification during the next 24 hours. The upper level winds will be weaker when Freddy moves northwest later this week. Tropical Cyclone Freddy is forecast to intensify when the wind shear decreases. Freddy could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the middle of the week.

Tropical Cyclone Kevin Passes South of Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Kevin passed south of Fiji on Saturday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kevin was located at latitude 25.1°S and longitude 178.6°E which put it about 450 miles (720 km) south of Suva, Fiji. Kevin was moving toward the east-southeast at 26 m.p.h. (43 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 951 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Kevin started to weaken as it passed south of Fiji on Saturday. An upper level trough east of Australia was producing northwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Kevin’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear was causing Kevin to weaken. A large circular eye with a diameter of 50 miles (80 km) was at the center of Tropical Cyclone Kevin. The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. The vertical wind shear also caused the distribution of thunderstorms in Kevin to become asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Kevin. Bands in the northern half of Kevin consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The size of Tropical Cyclone Kevin’s circulation increased on Saturday. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (325 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Kevin was 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 20.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 42.5.

Tropical Cyclone Kevin will move through an environment that is unfavorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Kevin will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26˚C. An upper level trough east of Australia will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Kevin’s circulation. Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear during the next 48 hours. The strong vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Levin to weaken. Kevin will move over colder water during the next few days. A combination of strong vertical wind shear and colder water will cause Tropical Cyclone Kevin to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough east of Australia will steer Tropical Cyclone Kevin toward the east-southeast during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Kevin will pass South of Tonga on Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Redevelops over Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone Freddy redeveloped over the Mozambique Channel on Saturday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 22.6°S and longitude 39.8°E which put it about 300 miles (485 km) east of Vilankulo, Mozambique. Freddy was moving toward the east-southeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

After meandering over Mozambique for a week, the circulation of Tropical Cyclone Freddy emerged over the Mozambique Channel. More thunderstorms began to form once Freddy’s circulation moved back over the warm water in the Mozambique Channel. Tropical Cyclone Freddy strengthened back to the equivalent of a tropical storm on Saturday morning. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Freddy. The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Freddy was asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were forming in bands in the eastern and southern parts of Freddy’s circulation. Bands in the northern and western parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move over the southern part of an upper level ridge over southern Africa. The ridge will produce westerly winds that will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent Freddy from getting stronger. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will intensify during the next 36 hours. Freddy could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon by the end of the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the southwest Indian Ocean during the next 36 hours. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the southeast. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move closer to southern Madagascar during the weekend. A second high pressure system south of Madagascar will block Freddy before the center gets to Madagascar. The second high pressure system will push Tropical Cyclone Freddy back toward Mozambique during the early part of next week.

Tropical Cyclone Kevin Brings Wind and Rain to Southern Vanuatu

Tropical Cyclone Kevin brought wind and rain to southern Vanuatu on Friday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kevin was located at latitude 19.0°S and longitude 169.2°E which put it about 60 miles (95 km) south-southeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu. Kevin was moving toward the southeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Kevin brought strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern Vanuatu on Friday morning. Kevin was affecting the same area that was hit by Tropical Cyclone Judy earlier this week. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Kevin’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (300 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Kevin was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 31.1. Tropical Cyclone Kevin was similar in size and intensity to Tropical Cyclone Judy.

Tropical Cyclone Kevin strengthened as it moved over southern Vanuatu on Friday morning. A circular eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) was at the center of Kevin’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Kevin. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Kevin will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Kevin will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. An upper level trough east of Australia will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Kevin’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification during the rest of today. Tropical Cyclone Kevin is likely to continue to intensify during the next 24 hours. Kevin could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane. The vertical wind shear will increase and Kevin will move over cooler water during the weekend. Tropical Cyclone Kevin will start to weaken when the wind shear increases.

The upper level trough east of Australia will steer Tropical Cyclone Kevin toward the southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Kevin will move away from Port Vila and Efate during the next few hours. Kevin will continue to bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Port Vila and Efate until it moves farther away. Port Vila and Efate were just hit by Tropical Cyclone Judy. Tropical Cyclone Kevin will hinder efforts to recover from Tropical Cyclone Judy. Tropical Cyclone Kevin will also bring wind and rain to Erromango, Tanna and Aneityum during the next 24 hours. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Judy was making a transition to an extratropical cyclone southwest of Tonga. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Judy was located at latitude 26.5°S and longitude 178.7°W which put it about 460 miles (740 km) southwest of Tonga. Judy was moving toward the east-southeast at 30 m.p.h. (48 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Kevin Strengthens to Equivalent of a Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Kevin strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Coral Sea west of Vanuatu on Thursday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kevin was located at latitude 16.7°S and longitude 166.1°E which put it about 195 miles (310 km) west-northwest of Port Vila, Vanuatu. Kevin was moving toward the southeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Kevin strengthened west of Vanuatu on Thursday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Kevin’s circulation. A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) formed at the center of circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Kevin. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the the northern side of Kevin’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 190 miles (305 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Kevin will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Kevin will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the eastern Coral Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Kevin will intensify the next 24 hours. Kevin could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

An upper level trough east of Australia will steer Tropical Cyclone Kevin toward the southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Kevin will pass west of Espiritu Santo and Malekula during the next few hours. Kevin will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Espiritu Santo and Malekula. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. The center of Tropical Cyclone Kevin will pass near Port Vila, Vanuatu in 12 hours. Kevin will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Port Vila and Efate. Port Vila and Efate were just hit by Tropical Cyclone Judy. Tropical Cyclone Kevin will hinder efforts to recover from Tropical Cyclone Judy. Tropical Cyclone Kevin will bring wind and rain to Erromango, Tanna and Aneityum on Friday.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Judy was passing south-southwest of Fiji. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Judy was located at latitude 25.4°S and longitude 177.3°E which put it about 495 miles (795 km) south-southwest of Suva, Fiji. Judy was moving toward the east-southeast at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Kevin Forms West of Vanuatu

Tropical Cyclone Kevin formed over the Coral Sea west of Vanuatu on Wednesday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kevin was located at latitude 14.8°S and longitude 163.2°E which put it about 430 miles (695 km) west-northwest of Port Vila, Vanuatu. Kevin was moving toward the east-southeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

A low pressure system over the Coral Sea west of Vanuatu strengthened on Wednesday and the Fiji Meteorological Service designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Kevin. The circulation Tropical Cyclone Kevin organized quickly. The inner end or a rainband wrapped around the northern and eastern sides of the center of Kevin’s circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Kevin. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center of Kevin.

Tropical Cyclone Kevin will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Kevin will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Kevin will rapidly intensify to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 hours. Kevin could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane within 36 hours.

An upper level trough east of Australia will steer Tropical Cyclone Kevin toward the east-southeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Kevin will pass west of Espiritu Santo and Malekula during the next 24 hours. Kevin will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Espiritu Santo and Malekula. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. The center of Tropical Cyclone Kevin could pass near Port Vila, Vanuatu within 36 hours. Kevin could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it passes near Port Vila. Tropical Cyclone Kevin could bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Port Vila and Efate. Port Vila and Efate were just hit by Tropical Cyclone Judy. Tropical Cyclone Kevin will hinder efforts to recover from Tropical Cyclone Judy.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Judy moved quickly away from Vanuatu. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Judy was located at latitude 22.9°S and longitude 172.9°E which put it about 450 miles (650km) east of Noumea, New Caledonia. Judy was moving toward the southeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 964 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Judy Brings Strong Winds, Heavy Rain to Port Vila

Tropical Cyclone Judy brought strong winds and heavy rain to Port Vila, Vanuatu on Tuesday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Judy was located at latitude 18.7°S and longitude 168.9°E which put it about 40 miles (65 km) south-southeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu. Judy was moving toward the southeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Judy brought strong winds and heavy rain to Port Vila, Vanuatu on Tuesday night when the core of Judy’s circulation passed just east of Efate. A weather station at Bauer Field airport near Port Vila reported a sustained wind speed of 57 m.p.h. (92 km/h) and a wind gust of 91 m.p.h. (146 km/h). A weather station also reported a pressure of 961 mb.

A small circular eye with a diameter of 8 miles (13 km) was at the center of Tropical Cyclone Judy. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Judy’s circulation. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Judy’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 145 miles (230 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 19.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 31.2. Tropical Cyclone Judy was very similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Sally when Sally hit South Alabama in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Judy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Judy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough east of Australia. The trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Judy’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the northwest and there will not be enough vertical wind shear to cause Tropical Cyclone Judy to weaken. Judy is likely to intensify during the next 12 hours. Tropical Cyclone Judy will move into a more unfavorable environment later on Wednesday. Judy will start to move over cooler water. The upper level trough east of Australia will move closer to Judy and the upper level winds will get stronger. Tropical Cyclone Judy will start to weaken when it moves over cooler water and the vertical wind shear increases.

The upper level trough east of Australia will steer Tropical Cyclone Judy toward the southeast during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Judy will move away from Efate on Wednesday. Tropical Cyclone Judy will continue to cause strong winds and heavy rain in Port Vila and Efate during the next few hours. The weather conditions on Efate will improve when Tropical Cyclone Judy moves farther away. Judy will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Erromango, Tanna and Aneityum during the next 12 to 24 hours. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.