Tropical Cyclone Gombe formed near Madagascar on Monday afternoon. At 1:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gombe was located at latitude 15.6°S and longitude 51.2°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) east of Ambohitralanana, Madagascar. Gombe was moving toward the west-southwest at 6 m.p.h (9 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system near the northeast coast of Madagascar strengthened on Monday afternoon and Meteo France la Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Gombe. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Gombe’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Gombe. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles in the southwestern quadrant of Tropical Cyclone Gombe. The winds were blowing at less than tropical storm force in the rest of Gombe’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Gombe will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Tropical Cyclone Gombe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Gombe could intensify during the next few hours. Gombe will weaken after it moves over northern Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Gombe will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Gombe toward the west. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Gombe will make landfall on the northeast coast of Madagascar south of Ambohitralanana during Monday night. The center could pass near Maroantsetra on Tuesday.

Tropical Cyclone Gombe will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to northern Madagascar. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Gombe could intensify again later this week when it moves over the Mozambique Channel.