Tag Archives: SH97

Tropical Cyclone Seth Forms over Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Seth formed east of Australia over the Coral Sea on Thursday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Seth was located at latitude 19.7°S and longitude 153.7°E which put it about 305 miles (495 km) east-northeast of Mackay, Australia. Seth was moving toward the southeast at 17 m.p.h. (27 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Seth formed from a tropical low that initially developed northwest of Darwin, Australia almost a week ago. The tropical low made landfall southwest of Darwin and then moved east across northern Australia. The tropical low weakened as it passed over land, but then it regained some organization when it passed over the southern Gulf of Carpentaria. The circulation around the tropical low began to strengthen after it moved over the Coral Sea east of Cairns. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern side of center of circulation on Thursday night and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Seth.

The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in the southern and eastern parts of Tropical Cyclone Seth. Bands in the northern and western parts of Seth’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Seth generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) to the southeast of the center of Tropical Cyclone Seth.

Tropical Cyclone Seth will move through an environment that is somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Seth will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge centered northeast of Australia. The ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Seth’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but it may not be strong enough to keep Seth from getting stronger. Tropical Cyclone Seth could intensify during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Seth will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Coral Sea. The high pressure system will steer Seth toward the southeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Seth will move over the Coral Sea parallel to the east coast of Australia. Seth could be located northeast of Brisbane in 36 hours. The steering currents could weaken during the weekend and Tropical Cyclone Seth could stall.

Tropical Low Drops Rain on Darwin

A Tropical Low dropped rain on the area around Darwin, Australia on Saturday. At 1:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 12.9°S and longitude 130.4°E which put it about 45 miles (75 km) southwest of Darwin, Australia. The Tropical Low was moving toward the east-southeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

A Tropical Low that developed over the Timor Sea late last week made landfall on the coast of Australia near Dundee Beach on Saturday. Bands revolving around the center of the Tropical Low brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the area around Darwin. A weather station at the airport in Darwin reported a sustained wind speed of 27 m.p.h. (44 km/h) and a wind gust of 38 m.p.h. (61 km/h). The weather stationed measured 2.2 inches (56 mm) of rain. A station in Batchelor measured 5.7 inches (144.8 mm) of rain and a station in Dum In Mirrie measured 7.1 inches (180.6 mm) of rain. Flood Watches were in effect for portions of northern Australia.

The Tropical Low is forecast to move toward the east-southeast during the next several days. On its anticipated track the Tropical Low will move across northern Australia. It will continue to drop heavy rain over the northern part of the Northern Territory. The Tropical Low could move over the Gulf of Carpentaria in 48 hours. If the Tropical Low moves back over water, there is a chance it could strengthen to a tropical cyclone.

Tropical Low Forms over Timor Sea

A Tropical Low formed over the Timor Sea north of Darwin, Australia on Thursday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 9.8°S and longitude 129.6°E which put it about 200 miles (325 km) north-northwest of Darwin, Australia. The Tropical Low was moving toward the south-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Point Stuart, Northern Territory to Kalumburu, Western Australia including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.

A low pressure system over the Timor Sea north of Darwin, Australia exhibited more organization on Thursday night and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as a Tropical Low. More thunderstorms formed in bands revolving around the center of the Tropical Low. The strongest rainbands were occurring in the western half of the circulation. Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the Tropical Low.

The Tropical Low will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. It will will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. The Tropical Low will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge centered north of Australia. The ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of the Tropical Low’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. The Tropical Low is likely to strengthen during the next 24 hours.

The Tropical Low will move around the western side of a high pressure system centered north of Australia during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer the Tropical Low toward the south during the next day or so. On its anticipated track the Tropical Low could approach Bathurst Island and Melville Island within 24 hours. The Tropical Low could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to a portion of the coast of the Northern Territory during the weekend.