Tag Archives: 97S

Tropical Depression Forms over Mozambique Channel

A tropical depression formed over the Mozambique Channel on Friday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of the tropical depression was located at latitude 13.5°S and longitude 42.7°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) east-northeast of Nacala, Mozambique. The tropical depression was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A tropical depression, also designated as Invest 97S, formed over the Mozambique Channel on Friday morning. More thunderstorms developed near the center of the depression’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of the tropical depression. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the depression.

The tropical depression will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the center of an upper level ridge over the Mozambique Channel. The winds are weak near the center of the upper level ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. The tropical depression will intensify during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen to a named tropical cyclone.

The tropical depression will move around the northwestern side of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression toward the southwest. On its anticipated track the tropical depression could approach the coast of Mozambique south of Nacala in 24 hours. The tropical depression will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Mozambique during the weekend. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Gombe Forms near Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Gombe formed near Madagascar on Monday afternoon. At 1:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gombe was located at latitude 15.6°S and longitude 51.2°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) east of Ambohitralanana, Madagascar. Gombe was moving toward the west-southwest at 6 m.p.h (9 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system near the northeast coast of Madagascar strengthened on Monday afternoon and Meteo France la Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Gombe. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Gombe’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Gombe. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles in the southwestern quadrant of Tropical Cyclone Gombe. The winds were blowing at less than tropical storm force in the rest of Gombe’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Gombe will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Tropical Cyclone Gombe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Gombe could intensify during the next few hours. Gombe will weaken after it moves over northern Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Gombe will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Gombe toward the west. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Gombe will make landfall on the northeast coast of Madagascar south of Ambohitralanana during Monday night. The center could pass near Maroantsetra on Tuesday.

Tropical Cyclone Gombe will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to northern Madagascar. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Gombe could intensify again later this week when it moves over the Mozambique Channel.

Tropical Cyclone Seth Forms over Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Seth formed east of Australia over the Coral Sea on Thursday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Seth was located at latitude 19.7°S and longitude 153.7°E which put it about 305 miles (495 km) east-northeast of Mackay, Australia. Seth was moving toward the southeast at 17 m.p.h. (27 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Seth formed from a tropical low that initially developed northwest of Darwin, Australia almost a week ago. The tropical low made landfall southwest of Darwin and then moved east across northern Australia. The tropical low weakened as it passed over land, but then it regained some organization when it passed over the southern Gulf of Carpentaria. The circulation around the tropical low began to strengthen after it moved over the Coral Sea east of Cairns. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern side of center of circulation on Thursday night and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Seth.

The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in the southern and eastern parts of Tropical Cyclone Seth. Bands in the northern and western parts of Seth’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Seth generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) to the southeast of the center of Tropical Cyclone Seth.

Tropical Cyclone Seth will move through an environment that is somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Seth will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge centered northeast of Australia. The ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Seth’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but it may not be strong enough to keep Seth from getting stronger. Tropical Cyclone Seth could intensify during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Seth will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Coral Sea. The high pressure system will steer Seth toward the southeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Seth will move over the Coral Sea parallel to the east coast of Australia. Seth could be located northeast of Brisbane in 36 hours. The steering currents could weaken during the weekend and Tropical Cyclone Seth could stall.