Tropical Cyclone Alvaro started to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone over the Southwest Indian Ocean south of La Reunion on Wednesday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alvaro was located at latitude 26.8°S and longitude 54.9°E which put it about 405 miles (655 km) south of St. Denis, La Reunion. Alvaro was moving toward the southeast at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Alvaro began a transition to an extratropical cyclone on Wednesday. Alvaro moved over cooler water. In addition, an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean produced strong westerly winds that blew toward the top of Alvaro’s circulation. Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear. The combination of cooler water and strong vertical wind shear caused the structure of Tropical Cyclone Alvaro to change. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southeastern part of Alvaro’s circulation. Bands in the other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Alvaro.

Tropical Cyclone Alvaro will move through an environment unfavorable for a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Alvaro will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are colder than 26°C. It will continue to move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The upper level ridge will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The colder water and strong vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Alvaro to continue its transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean will steer Tropical Cyclone Alvaro toward the southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Alvaro will pass south of Mauritius on Thursday.