Tropical Cyclone Maila weakened over the Solomon Sea on Thursday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila was located at latitude 8.3°S and longitude 154.3°E which put the center about 460 miles (740 km) east of Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea. Maila was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.
Tropical Cyclone Maila was continuing to weaken as it moved toward the southeastern part of Papua New Guinea on Thursday. Maila continued to move slowly back over cooler water that it had mixed to the surface of the Solomon Sea earlier this week. The remnant of a circular eye was still present at the center of Maila’s circulation. The remnant eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila. Storms near the center of Maila generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass of mass in the upper levels of the atmosphere was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels. So, the surface pressure was increasing.
The size of Tropical Cyclone Maila did not change much during the past 24 hours. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Maila’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila.
The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Maila is 16.4. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 16.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 33.0. Tropical Cyclone Maila is similar in intensity to Hurricane Idalia when Idalia hit Florida in 2023. Maila is bigger than Idalia was.
Tropical Cyclone Maila will continue to be in an environment that will be slightly unfavorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Maila will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures were originally near 30°C. It will be under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Solomon Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Since Tropical Cyclone Maila has been moving slowly over the Solomon Sea, the strong winds near the surface of the ocean continue to mix cooler water to the surface. Maila will continue to move back over cooler water that has already mixed to the surface of the ocean earlier this week. The cooler water is likely to prevent further intensification of Tropical Cyclone Maila. Maila is likely to continue to weaken slowly during the next 24 hours.
Tropical Cyclone Maila will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is developing over the Coral Sea. The high pressure system will steer Maila toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Maila will continue to move toward the southeastern part of Papua New Guinea.
The center of Tropical Cyclone Maila will approach Woodlark Island in 24 hours. Maila will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the Kiriwina Islands, the D’Entrecasteaux Islands, and the Louisiade Archipelago. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Maila will be capable of causing serious damage. Maila could also produce a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coasts of some of the islands.
Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Vaianu was finishing a transition to a powerful extratropical storm as it moved toward New Zealand. The New Zealand Met Service issued a Strong Wind Watch and a Heavy Rain Watch for the North Island. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vaianu was located at latitude 27.1°S and longitude 179.0°E which put the center about 625 miles (1000 km) north of Auckland New Zealand. Vaianu was moving toward the south-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.