Tropical Cyclone Maila formed over the Solomon Sea on Saturday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila was located at latitude 8.9°S and longitude 155.0°E which put the center about 515 miles (830 km) east of Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea.  Maila was moving toward the north-northeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

A low pressure system over the Solomon Sea strengthened on Saturday and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone Maila.

Tropical Cyclone Maila was intensifying on Saturday.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Maila’s circulation.  More thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila.  Storms near the center of Maila generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Cyclone Maila was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) in the northern side of Maila’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Maila.

Tropical Cyclone Maila will be in an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Maila will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will be under the northwestern part of an upper level ridge that is over the Solomons.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Maila’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Maila will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Maila is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Maila will be in a region where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Maila is forecast to meander over the Solomon Sea because the steering winds are weak.