Tropical Cyclone Maila intensified to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Tuesday. At 5:00pa.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila was located at latitude 9.5°S and longitude 155.9°E which put the center about 565 miles (910 km) east of Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea. Maila was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (285 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 930 mb.
Tropical Cyclone Maila intensified to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane as it continued to meander over the Solomon Sea on Tuesday. A circular eye with a diameter of 28 miles (45 km) was present at the center of Maila’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila. Storms near the center of Maila generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.
The distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Cyclone Maila was fairly symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Maila’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila.
The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Maila is 29.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 16.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 46.4. Tropical Cyclone Maila is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Ida when Ida hit Louisiana in 2021.
Tropical Cyclone Maila will continue to be in an environment that will be slightly unfavorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Maila will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures were originally near 30°C. It will be under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Solomon Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Since Tropical Cyclone Maila has been moving slowly over the Solomon Sea, the strong winds near the surface of the ocean are mixing cooler water to the surface. Maila will move back over cooler water that has already mixed to the surface of the ocean. The cooler water is likely to prevent further intensification of Tropical Cyclone Maila. Maila is likely to weaken slowly during the next 24 hours.
Tropical Cyclone Maila will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is developing over the Coral Sea. The high pressure system will steer Maila toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Maila will move toward the southeastern part of Papua New Guinea.
Tropical Cyclone Maila could approach Woodlark Island in less than 48 hours. Maila will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the Kiriwina Islands, the D’Entrecasteaux Islands, and the Louisiade Archipelago. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Maila will be capable of causing major damage.
Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Vaianu started to weaken as it moved away from Fiji. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vaianu was located at latitude 21.6°S and longitude 177.3°E which put the center about 255 miles (410 km) south of Nadi, Fiji. Vaianu was moving toward the southeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.