Tag Archives: SH31

Tropical Cyclone Maila Weakens

Tropical Cyclone Maila weakened over the Solomon Sea on Thursday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila was located at latitude 8.3°S and longitude 154.3°E which put the center about 460 miles (740 km) east of Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea.  Maila was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Maila was continuing to weaken as it moved toward the southeastern part of Papua New Guinea on Thursday.  Maila continued to move slowly back over cooler water that it had mixed to the surface of the Solomon Sea earlier this week.  The remnant of a circular eye was still present at the center of Maila’s circulation.  The remnant eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila.  Storms near the center of Maila generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass of mass in the upper levels of the atmosphere was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels.  So, the surface pressure was increasing.

The size of Tropical Cyclone Maila did not change much during the past 24 hours.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Maila’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Maila is 16.4.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 16.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 33.0. Tropical Cyclone Maila is similar in intensity to Hurricane Idalia when Idalia hit Florida in 2023.  Maila is bigger than Idalia was.

Tropical Cyclone Maila will continue to be in an environment that will be slightly unfavorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Maila will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures were originally near 30°C.  It will be under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Solomon Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Since Tropical Cyclone Maila has been moving slowly over the Solomon Sea, the strong winds near the surface of the ocean continue to mix cooler water to the surface.  Maila will continue to move back over cooler water that has already mixed to the surface of the ocean earlier this week.  The cooler water is likely to prevent further intensification of Tropical Cyclone Maila.  Maila is likely to continue to weaken slowly during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Maila will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is developing over the Coral Sea.  The high pressure system will steer Maila toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Maila will continue to move toward the southeastern part of Papua New Guinea.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Maila will approach Woodlark Island in 24 hours.  Maila will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the Kiriwina Islands, the D’Entrecasteaux Islands, and the Louisiade Archipelago.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Maila will be capable of causing serious damage.  Maila could also produce a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coasts of some of the islands.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Vaianu was finishing a transition to a powerful extratropical storm as it moved toward New Zealand.  The New Zealand Met Service issued a Strong Wind Watch and a Heavy Rain Watch for the North Island.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vaianu was located at latitude 27.1°S and longitude 179.0°E which put the center about 625 miles (1000 km) north of Auckland New Zealand.  Vaianu was moving toward the south-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Maila Intensifies to Equivalent of Cat. 4 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Maila intensified to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Tuesday.  At 5:00pa.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila was located at latitude 9.5°S and longitude 155.9°E which put the center about 565 miles (910 km) east of Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea.  Maila was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (285 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 930 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Maila intensified to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane as it continued to meander over the Solomon Sea on Tuesday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 28 miles (45 km) was present at the center of Maila’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila.  Storms near the center of Maila generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Cyclone Maila was fairly symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Maila’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Maila is 29.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 16.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 46.4.  Tropical Cyclone Maila is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Ida when Ida hit Louisiana in 2021.

Tropical Cyclone Maila will continue to be in an environment that will be slightly unfavorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Maila will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures were originally near 30°C.  It will be under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Solomon Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Since Tropical Cyclone Maila has been moving slowly over the Solomon Sea, the strong winds near the surface of the ocean are mixing cooler water to the surface.  Maila will move back over cooler water that has already mixed to the surface of the ocean.  The cooler water is likely to prevent further intensification of Tropical Cyclone Maila.  Maila is likely to weaken slowly during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Maila will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is developing over the Coral Sea.  The high pressure system will steer Maila toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Maila will move toward the southeastern part of Papua New Guinea.

Tropical Cyclone Maila could approach Woodlark Island in less than 48 hours.  Maila will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the Kiriwina Islands, the D’Entrecasteaux Islands, and the Louisiade Archipelago.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Maila will be capable of causing major damage.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Vaianu started to weaken as it moved away from Fiji.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vaianu was located at latitude 21.6°S and longitude 177.3°E which put the center about 255 miles (410 km) south of Nadi, Fiji.  Vaianu was moving toward the southeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Maila Strengthens to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Maila strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane as it moved slowly over the Solomon Sea on Monday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila was located at latitude 9.9°S and longitude 156.5°E which put the center about 605 miles (970 km) east of Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea.  Maila was moving toward the east at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 953 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Maila intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Monday night.  A circular eye was present at the center of Maila’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila. Storms near the center of Maila generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Cyclone Maila was fairly symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Maila’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Maila is 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 16.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 37.1.  Tropical Cyclone Maila is similar in intensity to Hurricane Rita when Rita hit Southwest Louisiana in 2005.  Maila is smaller than Rita was.

Tropical Cyclone Maila will continue to be in an environment that will be mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Maila will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will be under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Solomon Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Since Tropical Cyclone Maila has been moving slowly over the Solomon Sea, the strong winds near the surface of the ocean are mixing cooler water to the surface.  If enough cooler water mixes to the surface of the ocean, then the cooler water could stop the intensification of Maila.  Tropical Cyclone Maila could intensify slowly during the next 24 hours, unless too much cooler water mixes to the surface of the ocean.

Tropical Cyclone Maila will continue to be in a region where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours. Tropical Cyclone Maila is forecast to meander over the Solomon Sea because the steering winds are weak.  A high pressure system is forecast to develop over the Coral Sea later this week.  The high pressure system will steer Maila toward the west after it develops.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Vaianu passed southwest of Fiji.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vaianu was located at latitude 19.7°S and longitude 175.6°E which put the center about 175 miles (285 km) southwest of Nadi, Fiji.  Vaianu was moving toward the south-southeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Maila Meanders over the Solomon Sea

Tropical Cyclone Maila continued to strengthen on Monday as it meandered over the Solomon Sea.   At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila was located at latitude 9.7°S and longitude 155.6°E which put the center about 555 miles (895 km) east of Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea.  Maila was moving toward the east at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 958 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Maila continued to strengthen on Monday as it meandered over the Solomon Sea.  A small circular eye was at the center of Maila’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila.  Storms near the center of Maila generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Cyclone Maila was fairly symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Maila’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 155 miles (250 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Maila is 19.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 17.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 36.2.  Tropical Cyclone Maila is similar in intensity to Hurricane Sally when Sally hit South Alabama in 2020.  Maila is bigger than Sally was.

Tropical Cyclone Maila will continue to be in an environment that will be mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Maila will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will be under the northern part of an upper level ridge that is over the Solomons.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Maila’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Since Tropical Cyclone Maila has been moving slowly over the Solomon Sea, the strong winds near the surface of the ocean are mixing cooler water to the surface.  If enough cooler water mixes to the surface of the ocean, then the cooler water could stop the intensification of Maila. Tropical Cyclone Maila could intensify slowly during the next 24 hours, unless too much cooler water mixes to the surface of the ocean.  If Maila intensifies it will strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Maila will continue to be in a region where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Maila is forecast to meander over the Solomon Sea because the steering winds are weak.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Vaianu continued to intensify west of Fiji.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vaianu was located at latitude 16.8°S and longitude 174.1°E which put the center about 230 miles (375 km) west of Nadi, Fiji.  Vaianu was moving toward the southeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Maila Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Maila strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon as it meandered over the Solomon Sea on Sunday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila was located at latitude 9.3°S and longitude 154.7°E which put the center about 500 miles (805 km) east of Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea.  Maila was moving toward the east-southeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Maila strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Sunday.  A small circular eye formed at the center of Maila’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila.  Storms near the center of Maila generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Maila increased as Maila intensified on Sunday.  Wind to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Maila’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (285 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila.

Tropical Cyclone Maila will continue to be in an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Maila will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will be under the northwestern part of an upper level ridge that is over the Solomons.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Maila’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Maila will intensify during the next 24 hours. Maila is could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Maila will continue to be in a region where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Maila is forecast to meander over the Solomon Sea because the steering winds are weak.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Vaianu was intensifying northwest of Fiji.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vaianu was located at latitude 15.1°S and longitude 172.6°E which put the center about 405 miles (655 km) west-northwest of Nadi, Fiji.  Vaianu was moving toward the south-southeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Tropical Low Spins Over Gulf of Carpentaria

A Tropical Low was spinning over the Gulf of Carpentaria on Sunday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 12.1°S and longitude 138.1°E which put the center about 100 miles (160 km) east of Nhulunbuy, Australia.   The Tropical Low was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A low pressure system was spinning over the Gulf of Carpentaria on Sunday.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology was designating the low pressure system as a Tropical Low.  The U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center was designating the low pressure system as Tropical Cyclone 31P.

The Tropical Low exhibited better organization on Sunday night.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of circulation.  More thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of the Tropical Low.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the Tropical Low.

The Tropical Low will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The Tropical Low will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over northern Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the tip of the Tropical Low.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be strong enough to prevent some intensification.  The Tropical Low could intensify during the next 24 hours.

The Tropical Low will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer the Tropical Low toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, The Tropical Low will pass near Nhulunbuy and Cape Wessel.  The Tropical Low will move over the Arafura Sea on Tuesday.

The Tropical Low will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the far northeastern part of the Northern Territory of Australia.  Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations.