Tropical Cyclone Maila continued to strengthen on Monday as it meandered over the Solomon Sea. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila was located at latitude 9.7°S and longitude 155.6°E which put the center about 555 miles (895 km) east of Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea. Maila was moving toward the east at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 958 mb.
Tropical Cyclone Maila continued to strengthen on Monday as it meandered over the Solomon Sea. A small circular eye was at the center of Maila’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila. Storms near the center of Maila generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.
The distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Cyclone Maila was fairly symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Maila’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 155 miles (250 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila.
The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Maila is 19.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 17.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 36.2. Tropical Cyclone Maila is similar in intensity to Hurricane Sally when Sally hit South Alabama in 2020. Maila is bigger than Sally was.
Tropical Cyclone Maila will continue to be in an environment that will be mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Maila will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will be under the northern part of an upper level ridge that is over the Solomons. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Maila’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Since Tropical Cyclone Maila has been moving slowly over the Solomon Sea, the strong winds near the surface of the ocean are mixing cooler water to the surface. If enough cooler water mixes to the surface of the ocean, then the cooler water could stop the intensification of Maila. Tropical Cyclone Maila could intensify slowly during the next 24 hours, unless too much cooler water mixes to the surface of the ocean. If Maila intensifies it will strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.
Tropical Cyclone Maila will continue to be in a region where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours. Tropical Cyclone Maila is forecast to meander over the Solomon Sea because the steering winds are weak.
Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Vaianu continued to intensify west of Fiji. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vaianu was located at latitude 16.8°S and longitude 174.1°E which put the center about 230 miles (375 km) west of Nadi, Fiji. Vaianu was moving toward the southeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.