Tropical Cyclone Maila started to move slowly toward the southeastern part of Papua New Guinea on Wednesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila was located at latitude 8.6°S and longitude 155.6°E which put the center about 550 miles (890 km) east of Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea.  Maila was moving toward the west at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 951 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Maila was weakening slowly as it started to move toward the southeastern part of Papua New Guinea on Wednesday.  Maila was moving over cooler water that it had mixed to the surface of the Solomon Sea earlier this week.  A circular eye was still present at the center of Maila’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila.  Storms near the center of Maila generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass of mass in the upper levels of the atmosphere was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels.  So, the surface pressure was increasing.

The area of the strongest winds in Tropical Cyclone Maila was a little smaller on Wednesday.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Maila’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 145 miles (235 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Maila.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Maila is 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 11.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 33.8. Tropical Cyclone Maila is similar in intensity to Hurricane Milton when Milton hit Florida in 2024.  Maila is not as big as Milton was.

Tropical Cyclone Maila will continue to be in an environment that will be slightly unfavorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Maila will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures were originally near 30°C.  It will be under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Solomon Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Since Tropical Cyclone Maila has been moving slowly over the Solomon Sea, the strong winds near the surface of the ocean continue to mix cooler water to the surface.  Maila will continue to move back over cooler water that has already mixed to the surface of the ocean earlier this week.  The cooler water is likely to prevent further intensification of Tropical Cyclone Maila.  Maila is likely to continue to weaken slowly during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Maila will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is developing over the Coral Sea.  The high pressure system will steer Maila toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Maila will move toward the southeastern part of Papua New Guinea.

Tropical Cyclone Maila will approach Woodlark Island in 36 hours.  Maila will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the Kiriwina Islands, the D’Entrecasteaux Islands, and the Louisiade Archipelago.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Maila will be capable of causing serious damage.  Maila could also produce a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coasts of some of the islands.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Vaianu was making a transition to a powerful extratropical storm as it moved toward New Zealand.  The New Zealand Met Service issued a Strong Wind Watch and a Heavy Rain Watch for the North Island.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vaianu was located at latitude 23.9°S and longitude 177.9°E which put the center about 840 miles (1355 km) south of Auckland New Zealand.  Vaianu was moving toward the south-southeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.