Former Tropical Depression Nine strengthened to Tropical Storm Isaias over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico early on Wednesday. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located at latitude 22.0°N and longitude 94.1°W which put the center about 285 miles (460 km) west of Progreso, Mexico. Isaias was moving toward the east-northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.
Former Tropical Depression Nine strengthened to Tropical Storm Isaias early on Wednesday.
More thunderstorms were developing near the center of Tropical Storm Isaias. More thunderstorms were also occurring in bands that were revolving around the center of Isaias’ circulation. Storms near the center of Isaias generated more upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.
The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Tropical Storm Isaias. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles in the northern half of Isaias’ circulation. The winds in the southern half of Tropical Storm Isaias were blowing at less than tropical storm force.
Tropical Storm Isaias will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Isaias will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Gulf of Mexico. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Isaias will intensify during the next 24 hours. Isaias could intensify rapidly. Tropical Storm Isaias could strengthen to a hurricane by Wednesday night.
An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. and the Gulf of Mexico will steer Tropical Storm Isaias toward the east-northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Isaias will move closer to the northwestern part of the Yucatan Peninsula. A different upper level trough approaching from the Southern Plains west will start to steer Isaias toward the north on Wednesday night. Tropical Storm Isaias could reach the northern Gulf Coast by Friday night.
Tropical Storm Isaias is likely to be a hurricane when it reaches the northern Gulf Coast. Isaias could be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast.
A Hurricane Watch will likely be issued for a portion of the northern Gulf Coast later today.