Based on data collected by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance plane, the National Hurricane Center designated a system previously known as Invest 97L as Tropical Storm Earl.  At 12:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located at latitude 16.3°N and longitude 80.2°W which put it about 535 miles (860 km) east of Belize City, Belize.  Earl was moving toward the west at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (70 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the portion of the coast from Punta Allen, Mexico to the Belize/Guatemala border.  A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the portion of the coast from Cabo Gracias a Dios to the Honduras/Guatemala border.

The recon plane found a small closed low level center of circulation on the western edge of a cluster of thunderstorms.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Earl is very small.  Winds to tropical storm force only extend out about 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.  Most of the thunderstorms are occurring in the eastern half of the tropical storm.  Those thunderstorms are generating upper level divergence which has pumped out enough mass to allow the surface pressure to decrease a few millibars during the past 12 hours.

The environment around Tropical Storm Earl is somewhat favorable for intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level low centered near the western tip of Cuba is producing southwesterly winds which are blowing over the western side of Tropical Storm Earl.  Those westerly winds are producing some vertical wind shear, which is why most of the thunderstorms are in the eastern half of Earl.  The wind shear is inhibiting intensification, but the upper low is forecast to move farther from Earl, which would reduce the shear.  If Earl move north of the coast of Honduras, it should intensify.  However, if the center of circulation moves over Honduras, then Earl could weaken fairly quickly because of its small size.

The subtropical high over the Atlantic Ocean is steering Tropical Storm Earl toward the west at a fairly rapid speed.  The high is expected to continue to steer Earl toward the west during the next several days, but the tropical storm is expected to move a little more slowly on Wednesday.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Earl is expected to pass just north of the coast of Belize.  Earl could be very close to Belize in about 36 hours.

Earl is a small tropical storm and the greatest risks are locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding.