Tropical Cyclone Carlos strengthened on Saturday as it moved north of Mauritius and La Reunion.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Carlos was located at latitude 17.5°S and longitude 56.7°E which put it about 190 miles (310 km) north-northwest of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Carlos was moving toward the south at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Carlos was asymmetrical for much of Saturday, but more thunderstorms formed close to the center of circulation during the past few hours.  There is a small circular clear area at the center of circulation which could indicate the formation of an eye.  Strong thunderstorms are building in a circular ring around the clear area.  The strongest winds are occurring in those thunderstorms.  There are additional showers and thunderstorms developing in bands in the eastern half of the circulation.  Few thunderstorms are forming in the western half of the circulation.  The thunderstorms around core of the circulation are generating upper level divergence which is pumping out mass.

Tropical Cyclone Carlos is moving through an environment that is favorable for intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28.5°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Carlos is likely to strengthen and there could be a period of rapid intensification if the inner core consolidates around and eye.  Tropical Cyclone Carlos is likely to intensify into the equivalent of a hurricane during the next several days.

Carlos is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering the tropical cyclone slowly southward.  A general southward motion is expected to continue for another day or two.  After that time the subtropical ridge is expected to strengthen and steer Tropical Cyclone Carlos more toward the southwest.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Carlos could be approaching Mauritius and La Reunion in 36 to 48 hours.  Even if the center passes northwest of those locations, Tropical Cyclone Carlos could come close enough to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.