Tag Archives: Okinawa

Typhoon Goni Turning North, May Threaten Okinawa

Typhoon Goni is slowly turning toward the north and moving away from northern Luzon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Goni was located at latitude 19.8°N and longitude 122.5°E which put it about 330 miles (530 km) south-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan and about 615 miles (990 km) southwest of Okinawa.  Goni was moving toward the north at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Typhoon Goni will still be moving over warm Sea Surface Temperatures for the next several days and it has a chance to intensify.  The upper level winds are relatively light over the typhoon and there is not much vertical wind shear along its immediate path.  There appears to be an upper level outflow channel to the northeast.  Given the favorable environment Goni could intensify on Saturday.

Goni is moving around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system and it should begin to move toward the northeast a little more quickly.  On its anticipated track Goni could be near Ishigaki Jima in about 36 hours and near Okinawa in about 48 hours.  It could still be a strong typhoon at that time.  Goni could still by a typhoon when it approaches southwestern Kyushu in about three days.

Typhoon Goni Moving Closer to Northern Luzon and Taiwan

Typhoon Goni moved steadily westward on Wednesday and it got closer to northern Luzon and Taiwan.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Goni was located at latitude 18.9°N and longitude 125.3°E which put it about 350 miles (565 km) southeast of Taipei, Taiwan.  Goni was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 937 mb.

Typhoon Goni intensified on Wednesday and it is a very well organized tropical cyclone.  It has a large well formed eye.  The circulation is symmetrical although there are more thunderstorms in the south half of the typhoon.  Upper level divergence is well developed and it is pumping out mass in all directions.  Goni remains over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and the upper level winds are relatively light.  Some further intensification is possible during the next day or so.  Goni could run into stronger upper level winds in two or three days which would create more vertical wind shear and start to weaken the typhoon.

A subtropical ridge has been steering Goni toward the west and it is expected to do so again on Thursday.  However, Goni is nearing the western end of the ridge and it is forecast to turn to the north on Friday.  Goni appears to have moved more slowly during the past few hours, which may be an indication that it is reaching the western end of the ridge.  An upper level trough northwest of Goni is expected to turn Goni toward the northeast during the weekend and then accelerate it toward western Japan.

On its anticipated track, the center of Goni is expected to pass northeast of Luzon.  However, the circulation is large enough that some of northern Luzon could experience strong winds and heavy rain.  The center of Goni is forecast to pass east of Taiwan, but it could also bring strong winds heavy rain to some locations there as well.  The core of Goni could pass very near Ishigaki Jima and bring very strong winds and heavy rain to the islands in that area.

Typhoon Goni Heading West

Typhoon Goni moved steadily westward away from the Mariana Islands on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Goni was located at latitude 18.3°N and longitude 135.3°E which put it about 780 miles (1260 km) southeast of Okinawa.  Goni was moving toward the west at 19 m.p.h. (31 km/).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 944 mb.

Goni appeared to go through an eyewall replacement cycle on Monday which resulted in a reduction in the maximum wind speed.  As the tiny pinhole inner eye weakened, the stronger winds were located in the larger outer eyewall.  The reduction in wind speed could be temporary, if the outer eye begins to contract.  Goni remains in a favorable environment.  It is moving over warm Sea Surface Temperature and the vertical wind shear is very modest.  The circulation is producing upper level divergence in all directions.  Goni will remain in a favorable environment for another two or three days and it should remain strong during that time period.

A subtropical ridge is steering Goni toward the west-northwest and that steering pattern is expect to continue for another 48 to 72 hours.  Later this week an upper level trough could approach the typhoon from the northwest.  Southwesterly winds on the eastern side of the trough could turn Goni toward the north later this week. On its anticipated track Goni could be near Taiwan, the northern Philippines or Okinawa when it makes that turn.

Typhoon Soudelor Heading for Taiwan

Typhoon Soudelor moved steadily closer to Taiwan on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Soudelor was located at latitude 20.6°N and longitude 129.7°E which put it about 450 miles (725 km) south-southeast of Okinawa and about 730 miles (1170 km) east-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan.  Soudelor was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (23 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

Typhoon Soudelor went through an eyewall replacement cycle that resulted in temporary weakening while the inner eye dissipated and the outer eyewall contracted.  Soudelor appears to have completed the cycle and the convection in the new eyewall is growing.  The typhoon is in a very favorable environment.  The Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  Upper level winds are very light and there is almost no vertical wind shear.  The circulation is very symmetrical with multiple rainbands.  Upper level divergence is pumping out mass in all directions.  Soudelor is likely to re-intensify during the next two days.

A subtropical ridge is steering Soudelor toward the west-northwest and that general steering pattern is expected to continue for another two or three days.  On its anticipated track Soudelor would reach Taiwan in less than 48 hours.  It could be a large and powerful typhoon when it gets there.  It is likely to bring strong winds and heavy rain.  Soudelor will weaken as it crosses Taiwan and then it will make a second landfall in China.

Typhoon Soudelor Becomes Equivalent of a Category 5 Hurricane

Typhoon Soudelor continued to intensify rapidly on Monday and it reached the equivalent of a Category 5 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Soudelor was located at latitude 18.0°N and longitude 140.1°E which put it about 1020 miles (1640 km) east-southeast of Okinawa.  Soudelor was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 215 m.p.h. (350 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 907 mb.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Soudelor was 40.4, the Hurricane Size Index was 13.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index was 54.0.  These indices mean that Soudelor is capable of producing regional catastrophic damage.

The upper level winds around Soudelor are very light and there is almost no vertical wind shear.  The typhoon has strong upper level divergence in all directions which is pumping out mass and causing the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.  It is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C and the circulation is extracting plenty of energy from the upper ocean.  The environment would support further intensification, but Soudelor is already a very powerful typhoon.  Soudelor rapidly completed an eyewall replacement cycle earlier today and future cycles could produce fluctuations in intensity.  Soudelor could remain a very intense typhoon for several more days.

A strong subtropical ridge is steering Typhoon Soudelor toward the west-northwest and that general steering pattern is expected to continue for the next few days.  On its anticipated track Soudelor could be near the southernmost islands of Japan in three days, near northern Taiwan in four days and near the coast of China in less than five days.  Although it is likely to weaken before it reaches any of those locations, it could still be a powerful typhoon at that time.

Typhoon Halola Nearing Ryukyu Islands

Typhoon Halola turned northwestward on Friday and it is nearing the Ryukyu Islands.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Halola was located at latitude 25.8°N and longitude 130.2°E which put it about 185 miles (300 km) east-southeast of Okinawa and about 50 miles (80 km) west-southwest of Minamidiato Island.  Halola was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. 145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

Halala weakened on Friday, but it was still a typhoon at the time of this post.  It has a well defined low level circulation, but there are fewer thunderstorms in northwestern portion of Halola.  It appears as if some drier air is moving into the northwestern side of the typhoon.  Upper level winds from the northeast are creating some vertical wind shear, but Halola has well developed upper level divergence to the south of the center.  Halola will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 28°C as it passes just north of Okinawa and it could stay at typhoon intensity for another 12 to 24 hours.  After that time it will move over cooler SSTs and the upper level winds will increase.  Halola is likely to weaken to a tropical storm over the weekend.

Typhoon Halola is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge, which is why it has turned toward the northwest.  It will turn northward on Saturday and then turn northeastward in about 36 hours as strong upper level winds from the southwest begin to push it in that direction.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Halola could pass between Okinawa and Amami in to 18 hours.  It is likely to bring wind and heavy rain to some of the Ryukyu Islands.  The center of Halola could be near or just west of Kyushu in about 36 hours.

Typhoon Halola Heading Toward Okinawa

Typhoon Halola moved steadily toward the west-northwest on Wednesday and it moved to within 550 miles of Okinawa.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Halola was located at latitude 24.4°N and longitude 135.4°E which put it about 525 miles (850 km) east-southeast of Okinawa.  Halola was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

The organization of Typhoon Halola improved on Wednesday.  There is an inner eye and a primary rainband may be wrapping around the center as well.  The circulation is more symmetrical and more thunderstorms formed on the western side of the typhoon.  There is well developed upper level divergence over the southeastern half of Halola.  Upper level winds from the northeast are inhibiting some of the upper level divergence over the northwestern part of Halola.  Since the typhoon is still over warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs), it has the potential to intensify further during the next several days.  If the primary rainband wraps entirely around the circulation and creates concentric eyewalls, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause fluctuations in intensity.

A subtropical ridge is steering Halola toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for another two days.  After about 48 hours Halola will reach the western end of the ridge and turn toward the north.  Halola could threaten southwestern Japan or South Korea over the weekend.  On its anticipated track Halola will approach Okinawa in about 48 hours.  It could be a significant typhoon at that time and bring strong winds and heavy rain to the islands around Okinawa.

Halola Becomes a Typhoon South of Japan

A tropical cyclone named Halola intensified a few hundred miles south of Japan on Tuesday and it reached typhoon intensity.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Halola was located at latitude 23.1°N and longitude 140.2°E which put it about 840 miles (1360 km) east-southeast of Okinawa.  Halola was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (170 km).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

Typhoon Halola is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 28°C.  The circulation is relatively well organized and an eye has been visible intermittently on satellite imagery.  There are many more thunderstorms in the eastern half of the circulation and there have been breaks in the western side of the eyewall at times.  It could be that there is some drier air to the northwest of the center.  Halola is currently moving through a region where the upper level winds are relatively light and there has not been much vertical wind shear today.  The lack of wind shear has allowed upper level outflow to become well developed to the east and south of the center of circulation.  Halola has the potential to intensify further during the next 48 hours while it is a region of modest vertical wind shear.

A subtropical ridge is steering Halola toward the west and a general west-northwestward movement is expected to continue during the next several days.  In two or three days Halola will reach the western end of the subtropical ridge and it will turn toward the north.  Guidance from numerical models varies on the strength of the subtropical ridge and the timing of the northward turn.  It is possible that Halola could threaten southwestern Japan later this week.

Large Typhoon Chan-hom South-Southeast of Okinawa

Large Typhoon Chan-hom is approaching the far southern islands of Japan.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Chan-hom was located at latitude 22.8°N and longitude 129.2°E which put it about 300 miles (480 km) south-southeast of Okinawa.  Chan-hom was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Typhoon Chan-hom has a very large circulation.  It has a 32 mile (50 km) wide eye and hurricane force winds extend out 40 miles (65 km) in all directions from the center.  The circulation is very symmetrical and upper level divergence is well developed in all directions.  Chan-hom is still over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and there is little wind shear.  Further intensification is possible, although the size of the circulation could limit the rate of intensification.

A subtropical ridge is steering Chan-hom toward the northwest and that steering pattern is expected to continue during the next several days.  On its anticipated track the center of Chan-hom could pass south of Okinawa on Thursday.  Given the large circulation it could bring winds and rain to that island.  The center could come close to Miyako-Jima and that location and other nearby islands could experience typhoon force winds and heavy rain.

Chan-hom Intensifies Into a Typhoon

The circulation around Chan-hom organized rapidly on Monday and it intensified into a typhoon.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Chan-hom was located at latitude 18.1°N and longitude 136.8°E which put it about 850 miles (1370 km) southeast of Okinawa.  Chan-hom was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (18 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (140 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

A primary rainband wrapped completely around the center of circulation of Typhoon Chan-hom and a large eye is apparent on satellite images.  Strong thunderstorms around the eye are generating upper level divergence which is pumping out mass and allowing the surface pressure to decrease.  The typhoon is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is around 28°C and there is plenty of energy in the upper ocean.  Upper level winds are relatively light and there is not much vertical wind shear.  The environment is very favorable for further intensification and rapid intensification is possible.  Chan-hom is expected to continue to intensify and it could become the equivalent of a major hurricane later this week.

A subtropical ridge north of Chan-hom is steering the typhoon toward the west.  The ridge is expected to steer Chan-hom toward the northwest during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Chan-hom could approach the southern islands of Japan in about three days.  It could be a large and powerful typhoon at that time.