Tag Archives: Okinawa

Typhoon Halola Nearing Ryukyu Islands

Typhoon Halola turned northwestward on Friday and it is nearing the Ryukyu Islands.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Halola was located at latitude 25.8°N and longitude 130.2°E which put it about 185 miles (300 km) east-southeast of Okinawa and about 50 miles (80 km) west-southwest of Minamidiato Island.  Halola was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. 145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

Halala weakened on Friday, but it was still a typhoon at the time of this post.  It has a well defined low level circulation, but there are fewer thunderstorms in northwestern portion of Halola.  It appears as if some drier air is moving into the northwestern side of the typhoon.  Upper level winds from the northeast are creating some vertical wind shear, but Halola has well developed upper level divergence to the south of the center.  Halola will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 28°C as it passes just north of Okinawa and it could stay at typhoon intensity for another 12 to 24 hours.  After that time it will move over cooler SSTs and the upper level winds will increase.  Halola is likely to weaken to a tropical storm over the weekend.

Typhoon Halola is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge, which is why it has turned toward the northwest.  It will turn northward on Saturday and then turn northeastward in about 36 hours as strong upper level winds from the southwest begin to push it in that direction.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Halola could pass between Okinawa and Amami in to 18 hours.  It is likely to bring wind and heavy rain to some of the Ryukyu Islands.  The center of Halola could be near or just west of Kyushu in about 36 hours.

Typhoon Halola Heading Toward Okinawa

Typhoon Halola moved steadily toward the west-northwest on Wednesday and it moved to within 550 miles of Okinawa.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Halola was located at latitude 24.4°N and longitude 135.4°E which put it about 525 miles (850 km) east-southeast of Okinawa.  Halola was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

The organization of Typhoon Halola improved on Wednesday.  There is an inner eye and a primary rainband may be wrapping around the center as well.  The circulation is more symmetrical and more thunderstorms formed on the western side of the typhoon.  There is well developed upper level divergence over the southeastern half of Halola.  Upper level winds from the northeast are inhibiting some of the upper level divergence over the northwestern part of Halola.  Since the typhoon is still over warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs), it has the potential to intensify further during the next several days.  If the primary rainband wraps entirely around the circulation and creates concentric eyewalls, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause fluctuations in intensity.

A subtropical ridge is steering Halola toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for another two days.  After about 48 hours Halola will reach the western end of the ridge and turn toward the north.  Halola could threaten southwestern Japan or South Korea over the weekend.  On its anticipated track Halola will approach Okinawa in about 48 hours.  It could be a significant typhoon at that time and bring strong winds and heavy rain to the islands around Okinawa.

Halola Becomes a Typhoon South of Japan

A tropical cyclone named Halola intensified a few hundred miles south of Japan on Tuesday and it reached typhoon intensity.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Halola was located at latitude 23.1°N and longitude 140.2°E which put it about 840 miles (1360 km) east-southeast of Okinawa.  Halola was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (170 km).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

Typhoon Halola is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 28°C.  The circulation is relatively well organized and an eye has been visible intermittently on satellite imagery.  There are many more thunderstorms in the eastern half of the circulation and there have been breaks in the western side of the eyewall at times.  It could be that there is some drier air to the northwest of the center.  Halola is currently moving through a region where the upper level winds are relatively light and there has not been much vertical wind shear today.  The lack of wind shear has allowed upper level outflow to become well developed to the east and south of the center of circulation.  Halola has the potential to intensify further during the next 48 hours while it is a region of modest vertical wind shear.

A subtropical ridge is steering Halola toward the west and a general west-northwestward movement is expected to continue during the next several days.  In two or three days Halola will reach the western end of the subtropical ridge and it will turn toward the north.  Guidance from numerical models varies on the strength of the subtropical ridge and the timing of the northward turn.  It is possible that Halola could threaten southwestern Japan later this week.

Large Typhoon Chan-hom South-Southeast of Okinawa

Large Typhoon Chan-hom is approaching the far southern islands of Japan.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Chan-hom was located at latitude 22.8°N and longitude 129.2°E which put it about 300 miles (480 km) south-southeast of Okinawa.  Chan-hom was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Typhoon Chan-hom has a very large circulation.  It has a 32 mile (50 km) wide eye and hurricane force winds extend out 40 miles (65 km) in all directions from the center.  The circulation is very symmetrical and upper level divergence is well developed in all directions.  Chan-hom is still over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and there is little wind shear.  Further intensification is possible, although the size of the circulation could limit the rate of intensification.

A subtropical ridge is steering Chan-hom toward the northwest and that steering pattern is expected to continue during the next several days.  On its anticipated track the center of Chan-hom could pass south of Okinawa on Thursday.  Given the large circulation it could bring winds and rain to that island.  The center could come close to Miyako-Jima and that location and other nearby islands could experience typhoon force winds and heavy rain.

Chan-hom Intensifies Into a Typhoon

The circulation around Chan-hom organized rapidly on Monday and it intensified into a typhoon.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Chan-hom was located at latitude 18.1°N and longitude 136.8°E which put it about 850 miles (1370 km) southeast of Okinawa.  Chan-hom was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (18 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (140 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

A primary rainband wrapped completely around the center of circulation of Typhoon Chan-hom and a large eye is apparent on satellite images.  Strong thunderstorms around the eye are generating upper level divergence which is pumping out mass and allowing the surface pressure to decrease.  The typhoon is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is around 28°C and there is plenty of energy in the upper ocean.  Upper level winds are relatively light and there is not much vertical wind shear.  The environment is very favorable for further intensification and rapid intensification is possible.  Chan-hom is expected to continue to intensify and it could become the equivalent of a major hurricane later this week.

A subtropical ridge north of Chan-hom is steering the typhoon toward the west.  The ridge is expected to steer Chan-hom toward the northwest during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Chan-hom could approach the southern islands of Japan in about three days.  It could be a large and powerful typhoon at that time.

Tropical Storm Chan-hom Moving Away From the Marianas

Tropical Storm Chan-hom continued to move farther west of the Mariana Islands on Sunday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Chan-hom was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 142.0°E which put it about 1170 miles (1890 km) southeast of Okinawa.  Chan-hom was moving toward the north-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Chan-hom became a little better organized on Sunday.  A primary band of thunderstorms wrapped around the southern half of the circulation.  There also appears to be some drier air wrapping into the circulation as well.  The upper level winds have decreased and some upper level divergence appears to be developing.  Chan-hom is over water there the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  With the exception of the drier air the environment is favorable for intensification Chan-hom is expected to become a typhoon.

A subtropical ridge is steering Chan-hom in a generally northwesterly direction and that steering pattern is expected to continue for the next few days.  On its anticipated track Chan-hom could approach Okinawa in three or four days.

Typhoon Noul Expected to Head Toward Okinawa

Typhoon Noul is expected to pass east of Taiwan and move toward Okinawa on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Noul was located at latitude 21.2°N and longitude 122.4°E which put it about 260 miles south-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan, about 240 miles south-southwest of Ishigaki and about 550 miles southwest of Naha, Okinawa.  Noul was moving toward the north at 11 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 150 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 944 mb.

Noul will be moving over increasingly cooler Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) as it moves northeastward on Monday.  In addition, it will move into an area where stronger westerly winds are blowing in the upper levels of the atmosphere.  Cooler SSTs and increasing vertical wind shear will cause Noul to weaken steadily.  However, it could still be a typhoon when it passes near Okinawa.

Noul is moving around the western end of the subtropical ridge that has been steering it.  As it moves farther to the north, it will be steered by the mid-latitude westerly winds and Noul will accelerate toward the northeast.  Noul is like to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone when it passes south of Japan.

Typhoon Noul Equivalent of Category 5 Hurricane

Typhoon Noul moved into an area with very little vertical wind shear and intensified into the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday Typhoon Noul was located at latitude 17.4°N and longitude 123.1°E which put it about 130 miles east of Tuguegarao and about 85 miles southeast of Escarpada Point on the northeastern tip of Luzon.  Noul was moving toward the north-northwest at 12 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 195 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 918 mb.

Noul is at the western end of the subtropical ridge that has been steering it toward the northwest.  It should gradually turn more toward the north on Sunday.  The anticipated track will take the center of Noul very close to the northeastern tip of Luzon in a few hours.  As it moves northward, it will start to be affected by westerly winds in a day or so.  Those winds will turn it more toward the northeast and it could affect some of the southern islands of Japan early next week.

As Noul moves toward the north it will move over cooler Sea Surface Temperatures  (SSTs).  In addition the upper level westerly winds will create more vertical wind shear over Noul.  The combination of cooler SSTs and more vertical wind shear will cause Noul to weaken throughout the next few days.  However, if could still be a typhoon when it passes by Okinawa in about 48 hours.

Noul could bring strong winds and heavy rain to the northeastern tip of Luzon on Sunday.  Mudslides could be a possibility in locations that receive heavy rain.

 

Vongfong Intensifies Rapidly, Now a Super Typhoon

Typhoon Vongfong has been in an environment of warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and light upper level winds, which is almost ideal for intensification of a tropical cyclone.  As  result it has intensified very rapidly and it has reached the intensity necessary to be classified as a Super Typhoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT the center of Typhoon Vongfong was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 133.2°E which put it about 700 miles southeast of Okinawa.  Vongfong was moving toward the west-northwest at 11 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 175 m.p.h., which made it the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, and there were gusts to 215 m.p.h.  Vongfong is both stronger and larger than Typhoon Phanfone was.

Vongfong is being steered west-northwest by a subtropical high pressure system.  An upper level trough in the westerly flow at higher latitudes will approach Vongfong from the west.  Southerly winds on the east side of the trough will cause Vongfong to make a sharp turn toward the north during the next 24-36 hours.  It appears that Vongfong will continue to move northward during the rest of the week and it could approach southwestern Japan in five or six days.

Vongfong will remain in a very favorable environment for the next 24-48 hours and some further intensification is possible.  Eventually, the winds in the upper level trough will increase the wind shear over Vongfong.  At the same time Vongfong will be moving over cooler SSTs as it gets farther north.  So, a weakening trend could begin in about 48 hours.  However, Vongfong could still be a large typhoon as it approaches Japan.