Tag Archives: Luzon

Strong Typhoon Melor Along Coast of Samar Heading for SE Luzon

Typhoon Melor reached the Philippines on Sunday and it was moving along the north coast of Samar toward southeastern Luzon.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Typhoon Melor was located at latitude 12.6°N and longitude 125.3°E which put it about 20 miles (32 km) north of Laoang, Philippines and about 100 miles (160 km) east-southeast of Legaspi in southeastern Luzon.  Melor was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

Typhoon Melor has been moving through an environment favorable for intensification.  The Sea Surface Temperatures were near 28°C and there has been little vertical wind shear.  However, the circulation is starting to interact with the Philippines.  The southwestern quarter of the circulation is over Samar.  However, since the core of the circulation is north of the coast of Samar, Melor has remained a strong typhoon.  The circulation of Typhoon Melor is likely to retain much of its integrity until the center makes landfall in southeastern Luzon near Sorsogon.  Melor could remain at typhoon intensity for another 24 hours.  However, eventually the increased friction will slow the portions of the circulation that move over land and Melor will weaken to a tropical storm.

A subtropical ridge is steering Typhoon Melor slightly north of due west and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track the core of Typhoon Melor will pass north of Samar.  It will make landfall on extreme southeastern Luzon near Sorsogon in a few hours.  The center of Melor should pass south of Legaspi before moving over the Sibuyan Sea.  It could move south of Manila in about 36 hours as a tropical storm.

Melor is a strong typhoon and it could bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Samar, southeastern Luzon, the islands around the Sibuyan Sea and Mindoro.  Heavy rain could cause flooding and trigger mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.

Melor Intensifies into a Typhoon and Threatens the Philippines

Tropical Storm Melor continued to intensify on Saturday and it reached typhoon status.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Typhoon Melor was located at latitude 12.0°N and longitude 129.7°E which put it about 320 miles (520 km) east of Laoang, Philippines.  Melor was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

The structure of Typhoon Melor is well organized and an eye has appeared intermittently on satellite imagery.  Melor has a small, well developed inner core surrounded by multiple spiral rainbands.  Thunderstorms near the core are generating upper level divergence, especially to the northeast of the center of circulation.  The upper level divergence is pumping out mass and causing the surface pressure to decrease.

Typhoon Melor is in an environment that is favorable for further intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is around 28°C.  An upper level ridge east of Melor is producing light southerly winds over the top of the typhoon, but the vertical wind shear is modest.  Melor is likely to continue to intensify on Sunday and it could become the equivalent of a major hurricane.

A subtropical ridge is steering Typhoon Melor toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for another two or three days.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Melor could be near the northeast coast of Samar in about 24 hours.  The center of Melor could make landfall over southeast Luzon in about 36 hours.  Melor could bring strong winds and heavy rain.  The heavy rain could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.

Typhoon Koppu Still Affecting Northern Luzon

The center of Typhoon Koppu moved across northern Luzon on Sunday and it is still affecting that region.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Koppu was located at latitude 17.5°N and longitude 120.3°E which put it about 200 miles (320 km) north-northwest of Manila, Philippines and just west of the coast of northwestern Luzon.  Koppu was moving toward the north-northeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

Passage over northern Luzon weakened Typhoon Koppu and its structure is asymmetrical.  Most of the stronger thunderstorms are located in the western half of the circulation.  Much of the eastern half of the circulation is still over Luzon and there are few thunderstorms there.  The center of circulation is just west of Luzon.  Since it is back over water, the core of the typhoon could start to reorganize.  Intensification will be limited because of the large proportion of the circulation which is over land.

Koppu is near the western end of a subtropical ridge, which is causing the typhoon to move slowly northward.  That motion could continue for another 24 to 36 hours.  Eventually the ridge is expected to strengthen and push Typhoon Koppu northward at a faster speed.  Typhoon Koppu will continue to bring heavy rain to parts of northern Luzon for another day or two.

Dangerous Typhoon Koppu Making Landfall in Northern Luzon

Typhoon Koppu intensified rapidly during the past 12 hours and it is making landfall near Baler in northern Luzon as the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Koppu was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 122.9°E which put it about 170 miles (275 km) east-northeast of Manila, Philippines.  Koppu was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 918 mb.  Typhoon Koppu has a Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) of 31.6, a Hurricane Size Index (HSI) of 17.5 and a Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) of 49.1, which means it is capable of producing regional significant wind damage.  In addition the slow movement of Koppu means it will produce very heavy rainfall which will create the potential for serious flooding and landslides.

Koppu will continue to move toward the west-northwest for another 12 to 24 hours.  Then it will reach the western end of the subtropical ridge that has been steering it and start to move toward the north.  Although Typhoon Koppu will weaken as it moves across northern Luzon, it will be over that area for 36 to 48 hours.  Koppu has the potential to cause widespread damage due to winds, floods and landslides.

Typhoon Koppu Continues to Intensify and Threaten Luzon

Typhoon Koppu continued to intensify on Friday and it maintained its steady course toward northern Luzon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Koppu was located at latitude 15.8°N and longitude 124.5°E which put it about 270 miles (435 km) east-northeast of Manila, Philippines.  Koppu was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

Typhoon Koppu is evolving into a large well organized typhoon.  An eye has formed at the center of the circulation and multiple rain bands spiral around the core of the typhoon.  Upper level divergence is pumping mass away from the center of circulation.  Koppu is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are light and there is not much vertical wind shear.  Koppu is likely to continue to intensify until it begins to interact with northern Luzon.

A subtropical ridge is steering Koppu toward the west and that steering pattern is expected to continue for another 24 to 36 hours.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Koppu will be very near the northeastern coast of Luzon in about 24 hours.  Koppu will bring strong winds, heavy rain and a storm surge to northern Luzon.  The large size of Koppu and its relatively slow movement means that it could produce very heavy rainfall.  Serious flooding and numerous mudslides are possible across northern Luzon.

Intensifying Typhoon Koppu Moving Toward Northern Luzon

Typhoon Koppu intensified on Thursday as it continued to move steadily toward Northern Luzon.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT the center of Typhoon Koppu was located at latitude 15.6°N and longitude 126.9°E which put it about 425 miles (685 km) east of Manila, Philippines.  Koppu was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

Typhoon Koppu is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds lessened on Thursday which decreased the vertical wind shear and allowed Koppu to intensify more quickly.  The core of the circulation consolidated and there are suggestions that an eyewall may be forming.  Koppu is expected to move through a favorable environment until it reaches northern Luzon and further intensification is very likely.

A subtropical ridge is steering Koppu toward the west and that general steering pattern is expected to continue for another 36 to 48 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Koppu will approach northern Luzon in 36 to 42 hours.  It could bring strong winds, heavy rain and a storm surge when it reaches that area.  The heavy rain could produce floods and mudslides as Koppu moves over northern Luzon.

Tropical Storm Koppu Forms North of Yap

In spite of significant vertical wind shear a surface circulation has been consolidating inside an area of thunderstorms north of Yap.  The system has been designated Tropical Storm Koppu.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Koppu was located at latitude 15.7°N and longitude 137.1°E which put it about 430 miles (690 km) north of Yap.  Koppu was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (23 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Significant vertical wind shear is inhibiting the organization of Tropical Storm Koppu.  An upper level ridge north of Koppu is generating strong northeasterly winds over the top of the tropical storm.  The vertical wind shear is causing most of the strong thunderstorms to be located southwest of the center of circulation.  The only other deep convection is occurring in a band that is west of the core of the circulation.

Koppu is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C and so there is plenty of energy in the upper ocean.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification for another 24 to 48 hours before it starts to subside.  Koppu could intensify much more quickly later this week when it moves into an area where the upper level winds are lighter.  Koppu could become a typhoon withing 36 to 48 hours and it could be a strong typhoon by the end of the week.

A subtropical ridge is steering Tropical Storm Koppu quickly to the west.  That general motion is expected to continue for the rest of the week.  On its anticipated track Koppu could be approaching northern Luzon in about three or four days.  It could be a significant typhoon by that time.

Typhoon Noul Equivalent of Category 5 Hurricane

Typhoon Noul moved into an area with very little vertical wind shear and intensified into the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday Typhoon Noul was located at latitude 17.4°N and longitude 123.1°E which put it about 130 miles east of Tuguegarao and about 85 miles southeast of Escarpada Point on the northeastern tip of Luzon.  Noul was moving toward the north-northwest at 12 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 195 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 918 mb.

Noul is at the western end of the subtropical ridge that has been steering it toward the northwest.  It should gradually turn more toward the north on Sunday.  The anticipated track will take the center of Noul very close to the northeastern tip of Luzon in a few hours.  As it moves northward, it will start to be affected by westerly winds in a day or so.  Those winds will turn it more toward the northeast and it could affect some of the southern islands of Japan early next week.

As Noul moves toward the north it will move over cooler Sea Surface Temperatures  (SSTs).  In addition the upper level westerly winds will create more vertical wind shear over Noul.  The combination of cooler SSTs and more vertical wind shear will cause Noul to weaken throughout the next few days.  However, if could still be a typhoon when it passes by Okinawa in about 48 hours.

Noul could bring strong winds and heavy rain to the northeastern tip of Luzon on Sunday.  Mudslides could be a possibility in locations that receive heavy rain.