Tag Archives: 18E

Tropical Storm Norbert Develops Southwest of Mexico

Tropical Storm Norbert developed southwest of Mexico on Tuesday morning.  At 5: 00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was located at latitude 13.7°N and longitude 106.2°W which put it about 385 miles (625 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Norbert was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

The wind speed increased around a low pressure system southwest of Mexico on Tuesday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Norbert.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Norbert.  Storms near the center of circulation started to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing outside the center of Norbert.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Norbert was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 25 miles from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Norbert will be in an environment that is somewhat favorable for intensification.  Norbert will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  A large upper level trough extends from northern Mexico over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The trough will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Norbert.  Those winds will cause vertical wind shear and the shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Storm Norbert could strengthen if the shear is not too strong.

Tropical Storm Norbert will be in a region where the steering currents are weak..  Norbert is not likely to move very much during the next several days.  If Tropical Storm Norbert remains in the same location for more than a day, its winds will mix cooler water to the surface.  That would limit the energy Norbert could extract from the ocean, and the tropical storm could weaken.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific, Tropical Storm Marie continued to churn west away from Baja California.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Marie was located at latitude 21.7°W and longitude 134.3°W which put it about 1560 miles (2510 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  Marie was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Hurricane Marie Weakens West of Baja California

Hurricane Marie weakened west of Baja California on Saturday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Marie was located at latitude 19.5°N and longitude 127.9°W which put it about 1180 miles (1900 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  Marie was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (220 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

Hurricane Marie began to move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature was cooler than 26°C on Saturday evening.  Marie was unable to extract enough energy from the ocean to maintain its intensity.  The circulation around Hurricane Marie pulled cooler, more stable air around its southern side.  The rainbands in the southern half of Marie started to weaken.  The southern side of the eyewall weakened too.  Strong thunderstorms were still occurring in rainbands in the northern half of Hurricane Marie.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center.

Hurricane Marie will move around the western side of a ridge of high pressure over the southwestern U.S.  The high will steer Marie toward the north-northwest during the next few days.  Hurricane Marie will move over even cooler water during the next several days, which will cause it to weaken more quickly.  Marie could weaken to a tropical depression by the middle of next week.  Eventually, some of the moisture in Hurricane Marie could be transported over California by the end of next week.

Marie Strengthens into a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Marie strengthened into a major hurricane on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Marie was located at latitude 15.6°N and longitude 122.1°W which put it about 940 miles (1515 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Marie was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 957 mb.

The circulation around Hurricane Marie was very well organized on Thursday night.  There was a small circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) at the center of Marie.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Marie.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane in all directions.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Marie.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center.

Hurricane Marie will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Marie will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Marie is likely to strengthen on Friday.  If a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could begin which would cause Marie to weaken.  Hurricane Marie will move over cooler water during the weekend.  Marie will extract less energy from the ocean which will cause the wind speed to decrease.

Hurricane Marie will move south of a ridge of high pressure over the southwestern U.S. and Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Marie toward the west-northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Marie will move farther away from Baja California.

Marie Rapidly Strengthens Into a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Marie rapidly strengthened into a hurricane on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Marie was located at latitude 14.3°N and longitude 115.1°W which put it about 685 miles (1100 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Marie was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

The circulation around Hurricane Marie exhibited much greater organization on Wednesday afternoon.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped entirely around the center of Marie.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Marie.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the west of the hurricane.  The circulation around Marie was small.  Winds to hurricane force only extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 60 miles from the center.

Hurricane Marie will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours.  Marie will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level wind are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Marie will continue to strengthen and it could intensify rapidly at time.  Marie could intensify into a major hurricane within 36 hours.

Hurricane Marie will move south of a ridge of high pressure over the southwestern U.S.  The high will steer Marie toward the west-northwest during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Marie will move farther away Baja California.

Tropical Storm Marie Forms South of Baja California

Tropical Storm Marie formed south of Baja California on Tuesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Marie was located at latitude 13.6°N and longitude 109.5°W which put it about 645 miles (1035 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Marie was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of a small low pressure system south of Baja California on Tuesday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Marie.  The circulation around Marie was still organizing.  More thunderstorms were forming around the center of Tropical Storm Marie.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were also developing and the bands were revolving around the center of the tropical storm.  Storms near the center of Marie started to generate upper level divergence which began to pump mass away to the west of the tropical storm.  The circulation around the Tropical Storm Marie was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Marie will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next two to three days.  Marie will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Marie could intensify into a hurricane within 36 hours.  Marie could strengthen more rapidly once an inner core with an eye and an eyewall forms.  Tropical Storm Marie could intensify into a major hurricane later this week.

Tropical Storm Marie will move south of a ridge of high pressure over the southwestern U.S.  The high will steer Marie toward the west-northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Marie will move farther away from Baja California.

Tropical Storm Octave Forms over Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Storm Octave formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Thursday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Octave was located at latitude 9.8°N and longitude 127.2°W which put it about 1455 miles (2345 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Octave was moving toward the west at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of a small low pressure system between Mexico and Hawaii and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Octave.  The circulation around Octave exhibited more organization and tropical characteristics on Thursday evening.  There was a distinct low level center of circulation with thunderstorms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Octave was small.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Octave will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification.  Octave will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is 28°C.  It will be in a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, there appears to be drier air north of Tropical Storm Octave.  If the circulation pulls drier air into the core of Octave, then thunderstorms around the center would weaken which would make intensification unlikely.  Tropical Storm Octave could strengthen a little during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Octave will be in a region where the winds at the steering level are weak.  Octave is forecast to move little during the next few days.  Because Tropical Storm Octave will not move much, it will remain well away from any land area.

Hurricane Olivia Churns Toward Hawaii

Hurricane Olivia churned toward Hawaii on Saturday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Olivia was located at latitude 21.4°N and longitude 138.0°W which put it about 1110 miles (1790 km) east of Hilo, Hawaii.  Olivia was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

Hurricane Olivia weakened slowly on Saturday, but it still had a well organized circulation.  There was a circular eye at the center of circulation.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Olivia.  The rainbands in the eastern half of the circulation were stronger than the bands in the western half of the circulation.  Storms near the core of Olivia were generating upper level divergence.

Hurricane Olivia will move through an environment that could allow it to remain a hurricane for several more days.  Olivia is currently over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 25°C, but it will move over slightly warmer water during the next several days.  An upper level trough north of Hawaii will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and they could cause Hurricane Olivia to weaken to a tropical storm early next week.

Hurricane Olivia will move south of a subtropical high over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Olivia toward the west during the next day or two.  The ridge is forecast to strengthen early next week and it will steer Olivia more toward the west-southwest.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Olivia could approach Hawaii on Tuesday night.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Norman moved north of Hawaii and weakened, while Tropical Depression Eighteen-E developed southwest of Baja California.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Norman was located at latitude 26.0°N and longitude 154.4°W which put it about 395 miles (630 km) northeast of Honolulu, Hawaii. Norman was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen-E was located at latitude 16.1°N and longitude 115.9°W which put it about 610 miles (980 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  It was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Pilar Forms Near Mexico

Tropical Storm Pilar formed just west of Mexico on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was located at latitude 18.7°N and longitude 105.3°W which put it about 120 miles (195 km) south-southeast of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  Pilar was moving toward the north at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was issued for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to El Roblito including the Islas Marias.

A distinct center of circulation developed within a larger area of low pressure near the west coast of Mexico on Saturday and the system was classified as Tropical Storm Pilar.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms began to form around the center.  Storms near the center started to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the west of Tropical Storm Pilar.

Tropical Storm Pilar will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification on Sunday.  Pilar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.   An upper level high over Mexico is producing easterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds are producing some vertical wind shear, but the shear was not strong enough to prevent the formation of Tropical Storm Pilar.  The eastern part of the circulation will be moving over western Mexico and increased friction will be the primary factor inhibiting strengthening.  Tropical Storm Pilar is likely to intensify on Sunday.

A ridge in the middle levels of the atmosphere over Mexico is steering Tropical Storm Pilar slowly toward the north.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Pilar will be very near Cabo Corrientes on Sunday night.  The center could move inland or it could remain just west of the coast.  Tropical Storm Pilar will drop very heavy rain over parts of the states of Colima and Jalisco.  The heavy rain could cause flash flooding in some locations.

Tropical Storm Nora Moves Into the Central Pacific

Tropical Storm Nora moved west of longitude 140°W on Sunday which meant that it officially crossed from the Eastern North Pacific into the Central North Pacific Ocean.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Nora was located at latitude 13.5°N and longitude 143.8°W which put it about 860 miles (1385 km) east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.  Nora was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 m.p.h.).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Nora is a small tropical storm.  Wind to tropical storm force only extend out about 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.  Most of the stronger thunderstorms are located northwest of the center of circulation and there is not much deep convection in the other parts of Nora.  Although Nora is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C, southerly winds in the upper levels appear to be causing vertical wind shear.  The wind shear is likely to increase as an upper level trough north of Hawaii gets closer to Nora.

Tropical Storm Nora is nearing the western end of a subtropical ridge which has been steering it toward the west.  If the vertical structure of Nora remains intact, the tropical storm should turn toward the north during the next day or two.  After that time the upper level trough north of Hawaii could sweep Nora toward the northeast.  An alternate and possibly more likely scenario, given the small size of Tropical Storm Nora, is that the vertical wind shear blows the upper portion of the circulation north of the surface circulation.  If that happens, then the surface circulation will be steered westward until it dissipates by the winds in the lower atmosphere.

Tropical Storm Nora Form Far East of Hawaii

Another Tropical Cyclone has formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean well east of Hawaii and the National Hurricane Center has upgraded Tropical Depression 18-E to Tropical Storm Nora.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Nora was located at latitude 11.3°N and longitude 135.1°W which put it about 1470 miles (2365 km) east-southeast of South Point Hawaii.  Nora was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

The circulation inside Tropical Storm Nora is still in the process of organizing.  There is one primary rainband that wraps around the western and southern side of the tropical storm.  More thunderstorms are forming near the center, but a clearly defined core of convection has not yet developed.  The storms close to the center of circulation are producing more upper level divergence which is pumping out mass.

Tropical Storm Nora is in an environment that favors intensification,   The Sea Surface Temperature is warmer than 29°C,  The upper level winds are light and there is not much upper level divergence.  Nora is expected to intensify gradually into a hurricane.  Once a tight, well organized inner core develops, it could intensify more quickly.

A subtropical ridge north of Nora is steering the tropical storm westward.  That general steering pattern is expected to continue for another day or two.  When Nora reaches the western end of the subtropical ridge, it is expected to turn toward the north.