Tag Archives: Pakistan

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy Continues to Move Slowly North

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy continued to move slowly toward the north over the Arabian Sea on Saturday night. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy was located at latitude 18.1°N and longitude 67.5°E which put it about 475 miles (765 km) south of Karachi, Pakistan. Biparjoy was moving toward the north at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy appeared to be pulling drier air from India into the northern part of the circulation. Bands in the northern half of Biparjoy consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy. Storms near the center of Biparyjoy generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) in the southeastern quadrant of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of Biparjoy’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Biparjoy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 31˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Arabian Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, drier air in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will continue to inhibit formation of thunderstorms in the that part of the circulation. In addition, Biparjoy has been moving slowly and the wind could mix cooler water to the surface of the Arabian Sea. Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy could weaken during the next 24 hours if the drier air in the northern part of the circulation and the mixing of cooler water to the surface inhibit the formation of thunderstorms near the core of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will move around the northwestern side of a high pressure system over India during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Biparjoy slowly toward the north. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy could approach the coast near the border between India and Pakistan in four days.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy Moves Slowly North over Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy moved slowly toward the north over the Arabian Sea on Friday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 66.9°E which put it about 640 miles (1035 km) south of Karachi, Pakistan. Biparjoy was moving toward the north-northeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy was asymmetrical on Friday morning. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring near the center of Biparjoy and in bands in the southern half of the tropical cyclone. bands in the northern half of Biparjoy’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. There appeared to be some drier air in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy. The drier air was inhibiting the formation of thunderstorms in that part of Biparjoy. Storms near the center of Biparjoy’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Biparjoy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 31˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Arabian Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, drier air in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will continue to inhibit formation of thunderstorms in the that part of the circulation. In addition, Biparjoy has been moving slowly and the wind could mix cooler water to the surface of the Arabian Sea. Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy could strengthen during the next 24 hours unless the mixing of cooler water to the surface lowers the Sea Surface Temperature under the core of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will move around the northwestern side of a high pressure system over India during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Biparjoy slowly toward the north. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will remain over the Arabian Sea during the next few days.

Tropical Cyclone Mandous Strengthens over Arabian Sea

Former Tropical Cyclone Mandous strengthened over the Arabian Sea on Wednesday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mandous was located at latitude 13.6°N and longitude 68.2°E which put it about 780 miles (1260 km) south of Karachi, Pakistan . Mandous was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The circulation around former Tropical Cyclone Mandous strengthened back to tropical storm force over the Arabian Sea on Wednesday. More thunderstorms formed at the center of Mandous’ circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Mandous. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Mandous’ circulation. The winds in the other parts of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Mandous will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Mandous will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over southern Asia and the Arabian Sea. The ridge will produce southerly winds will blow toward the top of Mandous’ circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. Northeasterly winds in the lower levels will transport drier air from Asia over the western Arabian Sea. The western side of Mandous’ will begin to interact with the drier air during the next 24 hours. A combination of moderate vertical wind shear and drier air in the lower levels of the atmosphere is likely to cause Tropical Cyclone Mandous to start to weaken on Thursday.

Tropical Cyclone Mandous will move south of a high pressure system over southern Asia and the northern Arabian Sea. The high pressure system will steer Mandous toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Mandous will remain far to the south of Pakistan.

Tropical Cyclone 03A Forms South of Pakistan

Tropical Cyclone 03A formed over the Arabian Sea south of Pakistan on Thursday night. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone 03A was located at latitude 21.8°N and longitude 56.6°E which put it about 225 miles (370 km) south-southwest of Karachi, Pakistan. The tropical cyclone was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the Arabian Sea south of Pakistan strengthened on Thursday night and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center designated the system as Tropical Cyclone 03A. The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone 03A was asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of the tropical cyclone. Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. An upper level ridge over Southwest Asia was producing easterly winds that were blowing toward the top of the tropical cyclone’s circulation. Those winds were causing vertical wind shear and the shear was contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone 03A will move through an environment that is somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. The upper level ridge over Southwest Asia will continue to cause vertical wind shear. There is also drier air over Southwestern Asia. Tropical Cyclone 03A could strengthen during the next 24 hours if the wind shear does not increase.

Tropical Cyclone 03A will move south of a high pressure system over Southwest Asia. The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 03A will move a little closer to Pakistan.

Tropical Cyclone Gulab Redevelops over the Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone Gulab redeveloped over the Arabian Sea on Thursday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gulab was located at latitude 22.8°N and longitude 65.1°E which put it about 175 miles (280 km) south-southwest of Karachi, Pakistan. Gulab was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Gulab redeveloped over the Arabian Sea south of Pakistan on Thursday. Gulab originally formed over the northern Bay of Bengal a few days ago. Gulab made landfall on the coast of India near Tekkali and then it moved westward across India. Even though Tropical Cyclone Gulab weakened after it made landfall, the circulation remained relatively intact because of a favorable upper level environment. There was not a lot of vertical wind shear. In fact, upper level divergence continued to pump away mass and allow the surface low pressure system to persist. The circulation began to intensify as Gulab approached the Arabian Sea and it strengthened once the low level center was back over water.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Gulab exhibited more organization on Thursday. More thunderstorms developed in bands revolving around the center of Gulab. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Gulab. Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The northern half of Gulab appeared to be pulling drier air from Asia into its circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) on the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Gulab. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) on the southern side of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Gulab will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Gulab will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over Southwest Asia and the northern Arabian Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Dry air from Asia could continue to limit the development of thunderstorms in the northern half of Gulab. Tropical Cyclone Gulab will intensify during the next 36 hours and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Gulab will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over Southwest Asia. The high will steer Gulab toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Gulab could approach the coast of Oman near Muscat in 60 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Forms Southwest of Mumbai

A tropical cyclone formed southwest of Mumbai, India on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone 04A was located at latitude 15.7°N and longitude 71.3°E which put it about 200 miles (320 km) southwest of Mumbai, India.  It was moving toward the north at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation formed within a broad area of low pressure over the Arabian Sea west of India.  Thunderstorms were developing near the low level center.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were forming and the bands began to revolve around the center of circulation.  Storms near the center started to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone 04A will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 to 72 hours.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The tropical cyclone will move through a region where the upper level wind are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone 04A will continue to intensify and it is likely to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon within 24 to 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 04A will move south of a high pressure system that extends from India across the northern Arabian Sea.  The high will steer the tropical cyclone in a west-northwesterly direction.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 04A should start to move away from India during the next 24 hours.  The tropical cyclone could approach Oman in about five days

Tropical Cyclone Vayu Weakens South of Pakistan

Tropical Cyclone Vayu weakened over the Arabian Sea south of Pakistan on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vayu was located at latitude 24.2°N and longitude 65.3°E which put it about 275 miles (445 km) south-southwest of Karachi, Pakistan.  Vayu was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

The low level circulation around Tropical Cyclone Vayu remained well organized on Saturday, but the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical.  The stronger thunderstorms were occurring in the southern half of the former eyewall and in several rainbands in the southern half of the circulation.  The strongest winds were occurring in the remaining portion of the eyewall.  Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Vayu continued to draw drier air into the northern half of the tropical cyclone on Saturday.  An upper level ridge north of Vayu was producing strong northeasterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The drier air and wind shear were the primary factors causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Cyclone Vayu will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Even though Vayu will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C, the combined effects of the drier air and the wind shear are likely to cause the tropical cyclone to continue to weaken on Sunday.  If the upper level winds get stronger, they could blow the upper half of the circulation southwest of the lower part of Tropical Cyclone Vayu.  In that case Vayu will weaken more quickly.

The future track of Tropical Cyclone Vayu will also depend on the vertical wind shear.  If the wind shear is not too strong and the circulation remains vertically intact, then the ridge north of Vayu will steer the tropical cyclone slowly toward the northwest on Sunday.  If the upper level winds blow the upper half of the circulation away from the lower portion of Tropical Cyclone Vayu, then southwesterly winds in the lower atmosphere will blow the shallower system toward the northeast.  Guidance from numerical models suggest this second scenario is more likely and the anticipated track takes Tropical Cyclone Vayu toward the northeast.

Tropical Cyclone Vayu Stalls, Weakens Southwest of Gujarat

Tropical Storm Vayu stalled and weakened southwest of Gujarat on Friday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vayu was located at latitude 20.6°N and longitude 67.4°E which put it about 170 miles (275 km) southwest of Dwarka, India.  Vayu was moving toward the west at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (150 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

The structure of the inner core of Tropical Cyclone Vayu changed significantly on Friday.  The previous small eye disappeared and a large new eye with a diameter of 50 miles (80 km) developed at the center of Vayu.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  The strongest rainbands were located in the southern half of the circulation.  Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm extended out about 150 miles (240 km) from the center.

The environment around Tropical Cyclone Vayu will become less favorable for a tropical cyclone on Saturday.  An upper level ridge north of Vayu will strengthen.  The ridge will produce stronger northeasterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Vayu will also continue to pull drier air into the northern half of the circulation.  Vayu will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  Even though Tropical Cyclone Vayu will be over very warm water, the combined effects of stronger wind shear and drier air are likely to cause it to weaken on Saturday.

The ridge north of Vayu will block the tropical cyclone from moving toward the north on Saturday.  The ridge is likely to continue to steer Tropical Cyclone Vayu slowly toward the west over the northeastern Arabian Sea during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Vayu will move farther away from Gujarat and Pakistan on Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Vayu Turns West Over Northeast Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone Vayu turned west over the northeastern Arabian Sea on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vayu was located at latitude 20.9°N and longitude 68.4°E which put it about 80 miles (130 km) southwest of Porbandar, India.  Vayu was moving toward the west-northwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Vayu maintained its intensity on Thursday, but the circulation exhibited slightly less organization.  A small eye continued to mark the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye, but there was a break in the northeastern portion of the ring.  The circulation continued to pull drier air into the northern part of the tropical cyclone.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of the circulation.  Rainbands in the northern half of the circulation were weaker.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 40 miles (65 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 125 miles (200 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Vayu will continue to move through an environment capable of sustaining a tropical cyclone on Friday.  Vayu will move under the axis of an upper level ridge where the winds are weaker and there will be little vertical wind shear.  The Sea Surface Temperature in the northeastern Arabian Sea is near 30°C.  However, Tropical Cyclone Vayu moved slowly on Thursday and it may have stirred some cooler water to the surface.  In addition, the circulation around Vayu will continue to draw in drier air from over south Asia.  Tropical Cyclone Vayu could start to weaken slowly on Friday, although it could maintain its intensity if it moves away from the upwelled cooler water.

Tropical Cyclone Vayu will be south of a strengthening ridge of high pressure over south Asia.  The ridge will block Vayu and prevent it from moving farther toward the north.  The ridge will steer Vayu slowly toward the west during the next 24 to 48 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Vayu will remain southwest of Gujarat and south of Pakistan during the next two days.

Tropical Cyclone Vayu Slows Near Gujarat Coast

Tropical Cyclone Vayu slowed near the coast of Gujarat on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vayu was located at latitude 20.4°N and longitude 69.1°E which put it about 85 miles (135 km) south-southwest of Porbandar, India.  Vayu was moving toward the north-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Vayu weakened slightly on Wednesday, although the inner core appeared to remain mostly intact.  The circulation seemed to pull some drier air over India into the eastern and northern portions of Vayu.  Outer rainbands weakened in those parts of the tropical cyclone.  The drier air did not appear to have penetrated the inner core of the circulation.  A tiny eye remained at the center of circulation.  A ring of showers and thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of strong thunderstorms in the southern half of the circulation were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Vayu.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 120 miles (195 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Vayu will move through an environment that will be mainly favorable for a tropical cyclone during the next 24 to 48 hours.  Vayu will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move near the axis of an upper level ridge where winds are weaker and there will be less vertical wind shear.  The drier air being pulled into the circulation from over India will be a factor that could inhibit any additional strengthening of Tropical Cyclone Vayu.  Vayu could strengthen during the next 24 hours, but it is more likely to maintain its intensity or weaken slightly.  If drier air mixes into the inner core of the circulation, then Tropical Cyclone Vayu could weaken more quickly.

Tropical Cyclone Vayu will move around the western end of a ridge over India during the next 12 to 24 hours.  The ridge will steer Vayu toward the north-northwest on Thursday.  A second ridge will develop north of Tropical Cyclone Vayu.  The second ridge will block the northward movement of Vayu and force the tropical cyclone to move more toward the west.  On its anticipated track the core of Tropical Cyclone Vayu will remain west of the coast of Gujarat.  Bands on the eastern side of the circulation could drop rain over Gujarat but the strongest part of the circulation is likely to remain offshore.