Tag Archives: Tinian

Typhoon Mawar Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Major Hurricane

Typhoon Mawar rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the Western North Pacific Ocean south-southeast of Guam on Monday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Mawar was located at latitude 10.8°N and longitude 146.7°E which put it about 255 miles (410 km) south-southeast of Guam. Mawar was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

Typhoon Warnings were in effect for Guam and Rota. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Tinian and Saipan. Typhoon Watches were also in effect for Tinian and Saipan.

Typhoon Mawar rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Monday. A small circular eye was present at the center of Mawar’s circulation. A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Mawar. Storms near the core of Mawar’s circulation generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm in all directions. The removal of mass continue to cause the surface pressure to decrease quickly.

The circulation around Typhoon Mawar was small. Winds to typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Mawar’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Typhoon Mawar. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Mawar was 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 33.4. Mawar was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Dennis when Dennis hit Northwest Florida in 2005.

Typhoon Mawar will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Mawar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western part of the axis of an upper level ridge over the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Mawar is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then concentric eyewalls could form. If concentric eyewalls form, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Typhoon Mawar to weaken temporarily.

Typhoon Mawar will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Mawar toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Typhoon Mawar will approach Guam in than 24 hours. Mawar is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches the Marianas. Typhoon Mawar will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan. Mawar will be capable of causing regional severe damage when it reaches Guam. Typhoon Mawar will start to move south of a subtropical high pressure system when it approaches the Marianas. The subtropical high will steer Mawar more toward the west-northwest later this week.

Typhoon Mawar Prompts Warning for Guam

Typhoon Mawar prompted the issuance of a Typhoon Warning for Guam on Monday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Mawar was located at latitude 10.3°N and longitude 146.8°E which put it about 290 miles (465 km) south-southeast of Guam. Mawar was moving toward the north-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 964 mb.

Typhoon Warning were in effect for Guam and Rota. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Tinian and Saipan. Typhoon Watches were also in effect for Tinian and Saipan.

Typhoon Mawar continued to intensify on Monday morning. A small circular eye formed at the center of Mawar’s circulation. A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Mawar. Storms near the core of Mawar’s circulation generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm in all directions. The removal of mass was causing the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Typhoon Mawar was small. Winds to typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Mawar’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (190 km) from the center of Typhoon Mawar. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Mawar was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 27.0. Mawar was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Typhoon Mawar will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Mawar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western part of the axis of an upper level ridge over the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Mawar will intensify during the next 36 hours. Mawar could intensify more rapidly at times. Typhoon Mawar is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane within 36 hours.

Typhoon Mawar will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Mawar toward the north-northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Typhoon Mawar will approach Guam in 36 hours. Mawar could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches the Marianas. Typhoon Mawar will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan. Mawar will move south of a subtropical high pressure system when it approaches the Marianas. The subtropical high will steer Mawar more toward the west-northwest later this week.

Mawar Strengthens to a Typhoon

Former Tropical Storm Mawar strengthened to a typhoon over the Western North Pacific Ocean south-southeast of Guam on Sunday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Mawar was located at latitude 8.3°N and longitude 148.1°E which put it about 455 miles (735 km) south-southeast of Guam. Mawar was moving toward the north-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

Typhoon Watches were in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan.

The circulation around Typhoon Mawar exhibited better organization on Sunday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern, western and southern sides of the center of Mawar’s circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center. Storms near the center of circulation generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm in all directions. The removal of mass was causing the surface pressure to decrease. Winds to typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) in the southern half of Mawar’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center of Typhoon Mawar.

Typhoon Mawar will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Mawar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western end of the axis of an upper level ridge over the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Mawar will intensify during the next 48 hours. Mawar could intensify rapidly after an inner core with an eye and an eyewall form. Typhoon Mawar could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane within 48 hours.

Typhoon Mawar will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Mawar toward the north-northwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track, Typhoon Mawar will approach the Marianas in 48 hours. Mawar could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches the Marianas. Typhoon Mawar will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan.

Tropical Storm Mawar Develops South-southeast of Guam

Tropical Storm Mawar developed over the Western North Pacific Ocean south-southeast of Guam on Saturday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Mawar was located at latitude 6.4°N and longitude 149.1°E which put it about 595 miles (960 km) south-southeast of Guam. Mawar was moving toward the north-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Typhoon Watches were in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan.

Former Tropical Depression 02W strengthened on Saturday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Mawar. The circulation around Tropical Storm Mawar was organizing quickly. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western and southern sides of the center of Mawar’s circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Tropical Storm Mawar.

Tropical Storm Mawar will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Mawar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western end of the axis of an upper level ridge over the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Mawar will intensify during the next 48 hours. Mawar could intensify rapidly after an inner core with an eye and an eyewall form. Tropical Storm Mawar is likely to strengthen to a typhoon within 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Mawar will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Mawar toward the north-northwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Mawar will affect Pulawat during the next 24 hours. Mawar will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Pulawat. Tropical Storm Mawar will approach the Marianas in 72 hours. Mawar will be a typhoon when it approaches the Marianas, which is why Typhoon Watches were issued for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan.

Tropical Storm Mindulle Brings Wind and Rain to Marianas, Dianmu Hits Vietnam

Tropical Storm Mindulle brought wind and rain to the Marianas on Thursday and Tropical Storm Dianmu hit Vietnam. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Mindulle was located at latitude 14.1°N and longitude 142.3°E which put it about 175 miles (280 km) west-northwest of Guam. Mindulle moving toward the west-northwest at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Tropical Storm Mindulle brought wind and rain to the Marianas including Guam on Thursday. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan. Mindulle was intensifying as it moved across the Marianas. More thunderstorms developed about the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving the center of Tropical Storm Mindulle. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The strongest winds were occurring in the northeastern part of Mindulle. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) in the northeastern quadrant to Mindulle.

Tropical Storm Mindulle will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few days. Mindulle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move into a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Mindulle will continue to intensify during the next 36 hours. Mindulle could strengthen to a typhoon in 24 hours. Mindulle could intensify more rapidly after an inner core becomes more well developed. It could intensify to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Mindulle will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean during the next several days. The high will steer Mindulle toward the northwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Mindulle will move quickly away from the Marianas. Mindulle could approach the Ryukyu Islands in a few days.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Dianmu bought wind and rain to central Vietnam. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Dianmu was located at latitude 15.4°N and longitude 108.3°E which put it about 15 miles (25 km) southeast of Tam Ky, Vietnam. Dianmu was moving toward the northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb. Tropical Storm Dianmu will weaken as it moves inlands over Southeast Asia. Dianmu will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to central Vietnam, southern Laos and northern Cambodia. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Kammuri Passes South of Guam

Tropical Storm Kammuri passed south of Guam on Tuesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Kammuri was located at latitude 11.8°N and longitude 141.8°E which put it about 225 miles (365 km) southwest of Guam.  Kammuri was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.  The Tropical Storm Warnings for Guam, Rota, Saipan and Tinian were discontinued.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Kammuri exhibited greater organization on Tuesday.  Rainbands around the center of circulation were more circular.  Storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the north and west of the tropical storm.  There were also more thunderstorms in bands north and west of the center of Kammuri.  Bands southeast of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The wind field around Tropical Storm Kammuri was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out farther in the northern half of the circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 240 miles (340 km) to the northeast of the center of Kammuri.  In contrast, tropical storm force winds only extended out 75 miles (120 km) to the southeast of the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Kammuri will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few days.  Kammuri will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The shear will slow the rate of intensification, but it will not be strong enough to prevent Tropical Storm Kammuri from getting stronger.  Kammuri is likely to intensify into a typhoon during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane later this week.

Tropical Storm Kammuri will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western Pacific Ocean during the next 48 to 72 hours.  The ridge will steer Kammuri toward the northwest.  A second high pressure system will move eastward from Asia in about three days.  The second high will block Tropical Storm Kammuri from moving any farther toward the north and the high will steer Kammuri toward the west during the weekend.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Kammuri will gradually move closer to the Philippines.

Elsewhere, over the South Pacific Ocean near Vanuatu vertical wind shear weakened Tropical Cyclone Rita.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Rita was located at latitude 15.3°S and longitude 169.0°E which put it about 180 miles (290 km) north of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  Rita was moving toward the south at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Storm Kammuri Forms, Warnings Issued for Marianas

Tropical Storm Kammuri formed on Monday and warnings were issued for the Marianas.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Kammuri was located at latitude 10.2°N and longitude 149.0°E which put it about 415 miles (665 km) southeast of Guam.  Kammuri was moving toward the west-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of a large low pressure system southeast of Guam on Monday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Kammuri.  The circulation around Kammuri was still organizing on Monday night.  Multiple bands of showers and thunderstorms were forming and the bands were starting to revolve around the center of circulation.  Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm in all directions.

Tropical Storm Kammuri will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few days.  Kammuri will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Kammuri will continue to intensify and it could strengthen into a typhoon within 36 hours.  Kammuri could eventually intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Storm Kammuri will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean during the next two days.  The high will steer Kammuri toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Kammuri will pass south of Guam in about 18 to 24 hours.  Kammuri could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain.  An upper level trough will approach Tropical Storm Kammuri from the northwest in about 48 hours.  The trough will weaken the upper level ridge and the steering currents will weaken.  Kammuri could meander after the steering currents weaken.

Elsewhere, over the South Pacific Ocean Tropical Cyclone Rita was weakening northeast of Vanuatu.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Rita was located at latitude 14.3°S and longitude 170.0°E which put it about 265 miles (430 km) north-northeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  Rita was moving toward the south-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Typhoon Bualoi Strengthens as it Approaches the Marianas

Typhoon Bualoi strengthened as it approached the Marianas on Sunday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Bualoi was located at latitude 14.5°N and longitude 147.8°E which put it about 175 miles (285 km) east-southeast of Saipan.  Bualoi was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

Typhoon Warnings were in effect for Tinian and Saipan.  A Typhoon Watch was in effect for Rota.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Alamagan, Pagan and Agrihan.

Typhoon Bualoi strengthened quickly on Sunday.  A small circular eye developed at the center of Bualoi.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the typhoon.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from Bualoi in all directions.

The circulation around Typhoon Bualoi was relatively small.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (215 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Bualoi was 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 26.3.  Bualoi was capable of causing localized serious damage.

Typhoon Bualoi will move through an environment favorable for intensification for another 36 to 48 hours.  Bualoi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Bualoi will continue to intensify and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 12 to 24 hours.

Typhoon Bualoi will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific.  The high will steer Bualoi toward the northwest during the next 48 hours.  The typhoon will move more toward the north when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Bualoi could pass near Saipan in about 12 hours.  If the center passes near or over Saipan, then there will be winds of typhoon force.  However, since the circulation around Bualoi is fairly small, if the typhoon passes north of Saipan, it will receive much weaker winds.  Typhoon Bualoi could be near Iwo To in less than three days.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Neoguri was moving toward Honshu.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Neoguri was located at latitude 29.5°N and longitude 133.6°E which put it about 600 miles (965 km) southwest of Tokyo, Japan.  Neoguri was moving toward the north-northeast at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.  Tropical Storm Neoguri could pass close to the coast of Honshu near Tokyo in about 24 hours.

Neoguri Strengthens to Typhoon South of Okinawa, Bualoi Prompts Watches for Marianas

Former Tropical Storm Neoguri strengthened into a typhoon south of Okinawa on Saturday and Tropical Storm Bualoi prompted watches for the Marianas.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Neoguri was located at latitude 23.9°N and longitude 128.1°E which put it about 200 miles (320 km) south of Okinawa.  Neoguri was moving toward the north-northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 965 mb.

Typhoon Neoguri strengthened rapidly on Saturday.  An eye formed at the center of circulation and a ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye.  The strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Neoguri.  There were more bands of thunderstorms in the northern half of the typhoon.  The circulation around Typhoon Neoguri was small.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center.

Typhoon Neoguri will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next several days.  Neoguri will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  So, there will be enough energy in the ocean to support intensification.  However, an upper level trough over China will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Typhoon Neoguri.  Those winds will produce moderate vertical wind shear and the shear will be strong enough to cause Neoguri to weaken.  Since the circulation around the typhoon is small, it could weaken more rapidly if the upper level winds get stronger.

The upper level trough over China will steer Typhoon Neoguri toward the northeast during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Neoguri will pass east of the Ryukyu Islands including Okinawa during the next 36 hours.  It could approach Honshu in about 48 hours.  Typhoon Neoguri will likely be a tropical storm by the time it approaches Honshu.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, former Tropical Depression 22W rapidly strengthened into Tropical Storm Bualoi.  Bualoi had almost strengthened into a typhoon by Saturday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Bualoi was located at latitude 11.8°N and longitude 150.8°E which put it about 455 miles (730 km) east of Guam.  Bualoi was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Typhoon Watches were in effect for Rota, Tinian and Saipan.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Guam.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Bualoi organized quickly on Saturday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of circulation.  Microwave satellite images indicated that an eye could be forming.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Bualoi.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Bualoi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Bualoi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Bualoi will strengthen into a typhoon on Sunday and it could eventually intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Storm Bualoi will move south of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Bualoi toward the west-northwest during the next day or two.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Bualoi could reach the Marianas in 36 hours.  Bualoi will very likely be a typhoon when it reaches the Marianas.  The center of Bualoi could pass near Tinian and Saipan.  It could be near Iwo To in about four days.

Typhoon Hagibis Strengthens to Equivalent of Cat. 5 Hurricane over Northern Marianas

Typhoon Hagibis strengthened to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the Northern Marianas on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon was located at latitude 16.8°N and longitude 144.8°E which put it about 195 miles (305 km) north-northwest of Guam.  Hagibis was moving toward the west-northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 915 mb.

Typhoon Hagibis rapidly intensified into the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on Monday.  A small, pinhole eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  The strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  A rainband appeared to be wrapping around the original eye and eyewall and an eyewall replacement cycle could be underway.  The start of an eyewall replacement cycle may have ended the period of rapid intensification.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Hagibis.  Storms around the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon.

The apparent beginning of an eyewall replacement cycle produced an increase in the size of the circulation around Typhoon Hagibis.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 250 miles (400 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Hagibis was 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 27.8 and the Hurricane Wind intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 62.8.  Hagibis was capable of causing catastrophic damage.

The center of Typhoon Hagibis passed north of Tinian and Saipan.  Hagibis would have produced very strong winds on some of the Northern Marianas.  The strongest winds would have occurred between Saipan and Alamagan.  Typhoon Hagibis also dropped heavy rain over Saipan, Tinian, Rota and Guam.

Typhoon Hagibis will remain in an environment very favorable for strong typhoons during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Hagibis will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Hagibis is likely to weaken, while the inner eyewall dissipates and the outer eyewall becomes the part of the typhoon with the strongest winds.  Hagibis could strengthen again if the outer eyewall begins to contract.  An eyewall replacement cycle would increase the size of the circulation.

Typhoon Hagibis will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Hagibis toward the northwest during the next several days.  Typhoon Hagibis will move toward the northeast after it moves around the western of the high pressure system.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Hagibis could approach the coast of Honshu near Tokyo by the end of this week.