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Tropical Storm Peipah Brings Wind and Rain to Japan

Tropical Storm Peipah brought wind and rain to parts of Japan on Thursday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Peipah was located at latitude 32.8°N and longitude 132.8°E which put the center about 60 miles (95 km) southwest of Kochi, Japan.  Peipah was moving toward the northeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Peipah exhibited more organization on Thursday.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Peipah’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the eastern and northern parts of Tropical Storm Peipah.  Bands in the western and southern parts of Peipah’s circulation still consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Peipah generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm.

In spite of the improved organization the distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Peipah continued to be asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) in the southeastern quadrant of Peipah’s circulation.  The winds in the other parts of Tropical Storm Peipah were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Peipah will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Peipah will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level trough that is northwest of Japan.  The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Peipah’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  The center of Peipah will pass over southern Shikoku during the next few hours.  Tropical Storm Peipah could intensify a little during the next 24 hours when the center of circulation is over water.

The upper level trough that is northwest of Japan will steer Tropical Storm Peipah toward the east-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Peipah’s circulation will move over southern Shikoku during the next few hours.  The center of Peipah will be south of Kyoto in 12 hours.  Tropical Storm Peipah could be near Tokyo in 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Peipah will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Shikoku and Honshu.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Peipah Forms Near Kyushu

Tropical Storm Peipah formed over the Western North Pacific Ocean just to the south of Kyushu on Wednesday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Peipah was located at latitude 30.3°N and longitude 131.4°E which put the center about 110 miles (175 km) south of Miyazaki, Japan.  Peipah was moving toward the north at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A low pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean just to the south of Kyushu strengthened on Wednesday evening and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Peipah.

The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Peipah was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern and eastern parts of Peipah’s circulation.  Bands in the southern and western parts of Tropical Storm Peipah consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Peipah generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Peipah was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) in the eastern side of Peipah’s circulation.  The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Peipah were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Peipah will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Peipah will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge that is south of Japan.  The upper level ridge will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Peipah’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Peipah could intensify a little during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Peipah will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is south of Japan.  The high pressure system will steer Peipah toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Peipah will pass just to the east of Kyushu during the next 12 hours.  Peipah could move near the southern coast of Shikoku later on Thursday.  The center of Tropical Storm Peipah could be south of Osaka in 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Peipah will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Kyushu, Shikoku and Honshu.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Mindulle Brings Wind and Rain to Marianas, Dianmu Hits Vietnam

Tropical Storm Mindulle brought wind and rain to the Marianas on Thursday and Tropical Storm Dianmu hit Vietnam. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Mindulle was located at latitude 14.1°N and longitude 142.3°E which put it about 175 miles (280 km) west-northwest of Guam. Mindulle moving toward the west-northwest at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Tropical Storm Mindulle brought wind and rain to the Marianas including Guam on Thursday. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan. Mindulle was intensifying as it moved across the Marianas. More thunderstorms developed about the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving the center of Tropical Storm Mindulle. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The strongest winds were occurring in the northeastern part of Mindulle. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) in the northeastern quadrant to Mindulle.

Tropical Storm Mindulle will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few days. Mindulle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move into a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Mindulle will continue to intensify during the next 36 hours. Mindulle could strengthen to a typhoon in 24 hours. Mindulle could intensify more rapidly after an inner core becomes more well developed. It could intensify to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Mindulle will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean during the next several days. The high will steer Mindulle toward the northwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Mindulle will move quickly away from the Marianas. Mindulle could approach the Ryukyu Islands in a few days.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Dianmu bought wind and rain to central Vietnam. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Dianmu was located at latitude 15.4°N and longitude 108.3°E which put it about 15 miles (25 km) southeast of Tam Ky, Vietnam. Dianmu was moving toward the northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb. Tropical Storm Dianmu will weaken as it moves inlands over Southeast Asia. Dianmu will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to central Vietnam, southern Laos and northern Cambodia. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Depression 20W Forms Southeast of Guam

Tropical Depression Twenty-W formed southeast of Guam on Wednesday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-W was located at latitude 11.5°N and longitude 148.1°E which put it about 305 miles (490 km) east-southeast of Guam. The tropical depression moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). T he minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Depression Twenty-W developed over the Western North Pacific Ocean southeast of Guam on Wednesday. The circulation around the tropical depression was organizing quickly. Thunderstorms formed near the center of the tropical depression. Other thunderstorms developed in bands revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the depression.

Tropical Depression Twenty-W will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few days. The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move into a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Depression Twenty-W could strengthen to a tropical storm during the next 12 hours. It could intensify more rapidly after an inner core becomes more well developed. It could intensify to a typhoon within 36 hours.

Tropical Depression Twenty-W will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean during the next several days. The high will steer the tropical depression toward the northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track the tropical depression could reach the Marianas in less than 24 hours. Tropical Depression Twenty-W could intensify to a tropical storm before it reaches the Marianas. It will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Marianas including Guam.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression Twentyone-W formed over the South China Sea east of Vietnam. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Twentyone-W was located at latitude 12.9°N and longitude 112.8°E which put it about 400 miles (605 km) east-southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam. The tropical depression moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). T he minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb. Tropical Depression Twentyone-W is forecast to move toward the west-northwest and to strengthen to a tropical storm. It could reach the coast of Vietnam south of Da Nang in about 24 hours.

Typhoon Molave Makes Landfall in Vietnam

Typhoon Molave made landfall on the central coast of Vietnam on Tuesday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Molave was located at latitude 15.1°N and longitude 109.1°E which put it about 10 miles (15 km) east of Quang Ngai, Vietnam. Molave was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 957 mb.

Typhoon Molave made landfall on the coast of Vietnam near Quang Ngai on Tuesday night. Winds to typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Molave. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Molave was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 17.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 35.0. Molave was capable of causing regional serious damage.

Typhoon Molave will cause winds to typhoon force along the central coast of Vietnam. Molave will cause a significant storm surge near and to the north of where the center made landfall. Typhoon Molave will weaken steadily while it moves inland. Molave will drop locally heavy rain over parts of central Vietnam, southern Laos, northern Cambodia and northeastern Thailand. The surface in those areas is already saturated by rain dropped be previous tropical cyclones and other weather systems. Molave will almost certainly cause floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific, a new tropical depression formed east of the Philippines. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression 22W was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 139.6°E which put it about 1200 miles (1965 km) east of the Philippines. The depression was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb. The tropical depression is forecast to move toward the Philippines and to strengthen into a typhoon.

Typhoon Molave Brings Wind and Rain to the Philippines

Typhoon Molave brought wind and rain to parts of the Philippines on Sunday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Molave was located at latitude 13.5°N and longitude 122.2°E which put it about 75 miles (120 km) east of Calapan, Philippines. Molave was moving toward the west at 22 m.p.h. (350 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Molave intensified rapidly to a typhoon as it approached Luzon. A circular eye developed at the center of Typhoon Molave. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Winds to typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center.

The center of Typhoon Molave moved across southeastern Luzon near Tabaco. It was located near Marinduque Island. Molave was dropping heavy rain over parts of southern Luzon, Mariduque Island and Mindoro. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Typhoon Molave will move south of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Molave toward the west. On its anticipated track Typhoon Molave will move across Mindoro and over the South China Sea. Molave could approach the coast of central Vietnam in about 60 hours.

Typhoon Molave will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 48 hours. Molave will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will slow the rate of intensification but there will not be enough vertical wind shear to keep Typhoon Molave from intensifying when it moves over the South China Sea.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Saudel was approaching the coast of central Vietnam. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Saudel was located at latitude 17.5°N and longitude 107.4°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) east of Xuan Duc, Vietnam. Saudel was moving toward the west at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Saudel Weakens to a Tropical Storm

Former Typhoon Saudel weakened back to a tropical storm over the South China Sea on Friday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Saudel was located at latitude 17.7°N and longitude 113.1°E which put it about 170 miles (280 km) east-southeast of Hainan. Saudel was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Tropical Storm Saudel weakened over the South China Sea on Friday. An upper level ridge over eastern Asia produced easterly winds which blew toward the top of Saudel. Those winds cause moderate vertical wind shear and they were the primary cause of the weakening of the former typhoon. Breaks developed in the ring of strong thunderstorms surrounding the eye. The distribution of thunderstorms became more asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Tropical Storm Saudel. Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center.

Tropical Storm Saudel will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next several days.  Saudel will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  However, the upper level ridge over eastern Asia will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear, will cause Tropical Storm Saudel to continue to weaken during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Saudel will move south of a ridge of high pressure over eastern Asia.  The ridge will steer Saudel toward the west during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Saudel will pass south of Hainan Island in about 24 hours. Saudel could approach the coast of Vietnam in about 36 hours. Saudel could still be a tropical storm when it approaches makes landfall on the central coast of Vietnam between Hue and Vinh. Even if Saudel weakens to a tropical depression, it will still drop locally heavy rain over parts of Vietnam and southern Laos. The heavy rain will cause floods in some locations where the ground is already saturated.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression Twentyone-W developed east of Luzon. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Twentyone-W was located at latitude 12.7°N and longitude 130.7°E which put it about 315 miles (510 km) east of Luzon. The depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (505 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb. The depression is forecast to move toward the Philippines and to strengthen into a tropical storm.

Typhoon Bualoi Strengthens to Equivalent of Major Hurricane over Marianas

Typhoon Bualoi strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the Marianas on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Bualoi was located at latitude 16.7°N and longitude 145.5°E which put it about 660 miles (1060 km) south-southeast of Iwo To.  Bualoi was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

Typhoon Bualoi continued to intensify quickly on Monday.  There was a small eye at the center of Bualoi.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Bualoi.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon in all directions.

The circulation around Typhoon Bualoi was small.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Bualoi was 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.0 and the Hurricane Wind intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 35.1.  Typhoon Bualoi was capable of causing localized major damage.  The core of Bualoi where the strongest winds were occurring passed north of Saipan.

Typhoon Bualoi will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong typhoon for another 24 to 36 hours.  Bualoi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Bualoi could strengthen during the next 24 hours.  If an inner rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause the typhoon to start to weaken.

Typhoon Bualoi will move around the western end of high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Bualoi toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  The typhoon will move more toward the north when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Bualoi will move away from the Northern Marianas.  Conditions should improve when Bualoi gets farther away.  Typhoon Bualoi could be near Iwo To in about 60 hours.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Neoguri was moving south of Honshu.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Neoguri was located at latitude 32.4°N and longitude 137.6°E which put it about 285 miles (460 km) southwest of Tokyo, Japan.  Neoguri was moving toward the east-northeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.  The center of Tropical Storm Neoguri is likely to pass south of Tokyo during in about 12 hours.

Typhoon Bualoi Strengthens as it Approaches the Marianas

Typhoon Bualoi strengthened as it approached the Marianas on Sunday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Bualoi was located at latitude 14.5°N and longitude 147.8°E which put it about 175 miles (285 km) east-southeast of Saipan.  Bualoi was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

Typhoon Warnings were in effect for Tinian and Saipan.  A Typhoon Watch was in effect for Rota.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Alamagan, Pagan and Agrihan.

Typhoon Bualoi strengthened quickly on Sunday.  A small circular eye developed at the center of Bualoi.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the typhoon.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from Bualoi in all directions.

The circulation around Typhoon Bualoi was relatively small.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (215 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Bualoi was 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 26.3.  Bualoi was capable of causing localized serious damage.

Typhoon Bualoi will move through an environment favorable for intensification for another 36 to 48 hours.  Bualoi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Bualoi will continue to intensify and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 12 to 24 hours.

Typhoon Bualoi will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific.  The high will steer Bualoi toward the northwest during the next 48 hours.  The typhoon will move more toward the north when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Bualoi could pass near Saipan in about 12 hours.  If the center passes near or over Saipan, then there will be winds of typhoon force.  However, since the circulation around Bualoi is fairly small, if the typhoon passes north of Saipan, it will receive much weaker winds.  Typhoon Bualoi could be near Iwo To in less than three days.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Neoguri was moving toward Honshu.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Neoguri was located at latitude 29.5°N and longitude 133.6°E which put it about 600 miles (965 km) southwest of Tokyo, Japan.  Neoguri was moving toward the north-northeast at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.  Tropical Storm Neoguri could pass close to the coast of Honshu near Tokyo in about 24 hours.

Neoguri Strengthens to Typhoon South of Okinawa, Bualoi Prompts Watches for Marianas

Former Tropical Storm Neoguri strengthened into a typhoon south of Okinawa on Saturday and Tropical Storm Bualoi prompted watches for the Marianas.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Neoguri was located at latitude 23.9°N and longitude 128.1°E which put it about 200 miles (320 km) south of Okinawa.  Neoguri was moving toward the north-northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 965 mb.

Typhoon Neoguri strengthened rapidly on Saturday.  An eye formed at the center of circulation and a ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye.  The strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Neoguri.  There were more bands of thunderstorms in the northern half of the typhoon.  The circulation around Typhoon Neoguri was small.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center.

Typhoon Neoguri will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next several days.  Neoguri will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  So, there will be enough energy in the ocean to support intensification.  However, an upper level trough over China will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Typhoon Neoguri.  Those winds will produce moderate vertical wind shear and the shear will be strong enough to cause Neoguri to weaken.  Since the circulation around the typhoon is small, it could weaken more rapidly if the upper level winds get stronger.

The upper level trough over China will steer Typhoon Neoguri toward the northeast during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Neoguri will pass east of the Ryukyu Islands including Okinawa during the next 36 hours.  It could approach Honshu in about 48 hours.  Typhoon Neoguri will likely be a tropical storm by the time it approaches Honshu.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, former Tropical Depression 22W rapidly strengthened into Tropical Storm Bualoi.  Bualoi had almost strengthened into a typhoon by Saturday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Bualoi was located at latitude 11.8°N and longitude 150.8°E which put it about 455 miles (730 km) east of Guam.  Bualoi was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Typhoon Watches were in effect for Rota, Tinian and Saipan.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Guam.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Bualoi organized quickly on Saturday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of circulation.  Microwave satellite images indicated that an eye could be forming.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Bualoi.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Bualoi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Bualoi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Bualoi will strengthen into a typhoon on Sunday and it could eventually intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Storm Bualoi will move south of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Bualoi toward the west-northwest during the next day or two.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Bualoi could reach the Marianas in 36 hours.  Bualoi will very likely be a typhoon when it reaches the Marianas.  The center of Bualoi could pass near Tinian and Saipan.  It could be near Iwo To in about four days.