Tag Archives: Tropical Cyclone Alfred

Tropical Cyclone Alfred Meanders over the Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Alfred meandered over the Coral Sea on Tuesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located at latitude 15.0°S and longitude 155.0°E which put the center about 850 miles (1370 km) north of Brisbane, Australia.  Alfred was moving toward the south at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred continued to intensify gradually on Tuesday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Alfred’s circulation.  An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the developing eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Alfred’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Alfred generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alfred was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 15 miles (25 km) in the southern side of Alfred’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alfred will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea.  The winds are weak near the middle of the upper level ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.   Tropical Cyclone Alfred is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is over Vanuatu.  The high pressure system will steer Alfred slowly toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move parallel to the east coast of Australia.  Alfred could move closer to the coast of Queensland by the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred Spins over the Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Alfred continued to spin over the Coral Sea on Monday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located at latitude 14.6°S and longitude 154.5°E which put the center about 670 miles (1085 km) north of Brisbane, Australia.  Alfred was moving toward the south at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon as it spun over the Coral Sea on Monday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Alfred’s circulation.  A small circular eye was evident at the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred on visible satellite images.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.  Storms near the center of Alfred generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alfred was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 15 miles (25 km) in the southern side of Alfred’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alfred will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Alfred’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is over Vanuatu.  The high pressure system will steer Alfred slowly toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move parallel to the east coast of Australia.  Alfred could move closer to the coast of Queensland by the end of the week.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred Forms over the Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Alfred formed over the Coral Sea on Sunday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located at latitude 14.3°S and longitude 153.7°E which put the center about 560 miles (900 km) east-northeast of Cairns, Australia.  Alfred was moving toward the east at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

A low pressure system over the Coral Sea strengthened on Sunday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Alfred.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alfred exhibited more organization on Sunday.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Alfred’s circulation.  More thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.  Storms near the center of Alfred generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alfred was fairly large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 180 miles (290 km) from the center of Alfred’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alfred will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is near the Equator.  The high pressure system will steer Alfred toward the east during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move farther away from Australia.  Alfred is like to start to move toward the south early next week.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Bianca formed over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bianca was located at latitude 17.0°S and longitude 106.9°E which put the center about 590 miles (950 km) northwest of Exmouth, Australia.  Bianca was moving toward the west-southwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred Develops Over Southwest Gulf of Carpentaria

More thunderstorms developed around the center of a tropical low on Sunday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Alfred.  At 7:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 137.2°E which put it about 75 miles (120 km) northeast of Borroloola, Australia.  Alfred was moving toward the south-southeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

An area of low pressure organized over the southeastern Gulf of Carpentaria a few days ago.  The Tropical Low moved across the south coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria and then it moved westward over land.  The low turned north about 36 hours ago and it crossed into the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria on Sunday.  More thunderstorms developed closer to the center of circulation after the circulation moved over water.  Downdrafts in those storms transported stronger winds to the surface.  Upper level divergence pumped out mass and the surface pressure decreased.  When the low pressure system strengthened and acquired the necessary characteristics, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology classified it as Tropical Cyclone Alfred.

The low level circulation of Tropical Cyclone Alfred is well organized but the distribution of thunderstorms is very asymmetrical.  There is a well defined center of circulation that is over the extreme southwestern portion of the Gulf of Carpentaria.  However, most of the thunderstorms are developing southwest of the center of circulation.  Those thunderstorms are where the strongest winds are occurring.  There are few thunderstorms in the other portions of the core of the circulation.  There is one band of showers and thunderstorms farther away from the center on the eastern side of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will be moving through an environment that will be marginally favorable intensification.  It will be moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  So, there is plenty of energy to support intensification.  An upper level ridge east of Alfred is producing northerly winds which are blowing over the top of the tropical cyclone.  Those winds are generating moderate wind shear, which is partially responsible for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.  In addition, the center is close to the coast and some of the circulation is passing over land.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred could intensify a little more before it gets to coast, but a weakening trend may be more likely.

A subtropical ridge is steering Tropical Cyclone Alfred toward the south-southeast and that general motion is expected to continue for another 12 to 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Alfred could reach the coast near the border between the Northern Territory and Queensland in 12 to 18 hours.  Although Tropical Cyclone Alfred will bring some gusty winds, the greater hazard will be locally heavy rainfall.