Tag Archives: Baja California

Tropical Storm Julio Develops South of Mexico

Tropical Storm Julio developed south of Mexico on Saturday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Julio was located at latitude 16.1°N and longitude 102.7°W which put it about 180 miles (290 km) south-southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.  Julio was moving toward the west-northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

The middle and upper portion of the circulation around former Hurricane Nana moved westward from Guatemala over the Gulf of Tehuantepec south of Mexico.  A surface circulation redeveloped over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of the surface circulation and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Julio on Saturday afternoon.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Julio was small.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 35 miles from the center of Julio.  The stronger winds were occurring north of the center of circulation.  Thunderstorms continued to form near the center.  Short, narrow bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Julio will move through an environment only marginally favorable for intensification.  Julio will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  So, there is sufficient energy in the upper ocean to support intensification.  However, an upper level ridge over Mexico will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of Julio.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear which will inhibit intensification.  In addition, visible satellite images suggest that there is another small low pressure system about 250 miles (400 km) west of Tropical Storm Julio.  Interaction with the small low pressure system could also disrupt the circulation around Julio.

The ridge over Mexico will steer Tropical Storm Julio toward the west-northwest.  However, interaction with the small low pressure system west of Julio could also affect the track.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Julio will move toward a position south of Baja California on Sunday night.

Tropical Storms Hernan and Iselle Form West of Mexico

Tropical Storms Hernan and Iselle formed west of Mexico.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Hernan was located at latitude 19.1°N and longitude 106.2°W which put it about 95 miles (155 km) south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  Hernan was moving toward the north-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Hernan was not well organized.  An upper level ridge over the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico was producing northeasterly winds which were blowing toward the top of Hernan.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.  As a result of the shear, the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern part of the circulation.  Bands in the other parts of Tropical Storm Hernan consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles in the southern half of Hernan.  Winds in the northern half of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Hernan will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next several days.  Hernan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  So, there will be plenty of energy in the upper ocean to support intensification.  However, the upper level ridge will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear, which will inhibit potential intensification.  Tropical Storm Hernan is likely to weaken on Friday when it moves over colder water.  Hernan could approach the southern end of Baja California on Friday.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Iselle was located at latitude 17.0°N and longitude 115.8°W which put it about 560 miles (900 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Iselles was moving toward the northeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Iselle was also not well organized.  It was being sheared by the same upper level ridge that was causing strong vertical wind shear over Tropical Storm Hernan.  Most of the thunderstorms in Iselle were also occurring in the southern half of the circulation.  Tropical storm force winds extended out 100 miles from the center in the southern half of Tropical Storm Iselle.  Iselle will also move through an environment unfavorable for intensification.

Hurricane Genevieve Brings Wind and Rain to Baja California

Hurricane Genevieve brought wind and rain to southern Baja California on Thursday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Genevieve was located at latitude 23.3°N and longitude 111.4°W which put it about 120 miles (195 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.  Genevieve was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to La Paz, Mexico.

The center of Hurricane Genevieve passed just southwest of the southern tip of Baja California on Thursday morning.  A weather station at the Cabo San Lucas Marina reported a wind gust of 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  Bands of thunderstorms were dropping heavy rain on parts of southern Baja California.  There were reports of flash floods in some locations.

Hurricane Genevieve will weaken during the next several days as it moves over cooler water.  Genevieve will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are cooler than 26°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Genevieve will weaken gradually as it moves over cooler water.

Hurricane Genevieve will move around the southwestern part of a ridge of high pressure over the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico.  The ridge will steer Genevieve toward the northwest.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Genevieve will move parallel to the west coast of Baja California.  Genevieve will continue to bring gusty winds to the southern part of Baja California.  It will also drop move heavy rain and additional flash floods are likely.

Genevieve Prompts Hurricane Warning for Baja California

A potential close approach of Hurricane Genevieve prompted the issuance of a Hurricane Warning for the southern tip of Baja California.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Genevieve was located at latitude 20.9°N and longitude 109.7°W which put it about 140 miles (225 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Genevieve was moving toward the north-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (220 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to Todos Santos, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Todos Santos to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to La Paz, Mexico.

Hurricane Genevieve continued to exhibit a well organized circulation.  A circular eye was present at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Genevieve.  Storms near the core of the circulation were generating strong upper level divergence was pumping mass away from the hurricane.

Hurricane force winds extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Genevieve.  Tropical Storm force winds extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of circulation.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Genevieve was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 34.0.

Hurricane Genevieve will move through an environment less favorable for a major hurricane during the next few days.  Genevieve will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are cooler than 27°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Genevieve is likely to weaken when the core starts to move over cooler water.

Hurricane Genevieve will move around the southwestern part of an ridge of high pressure over the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico.  The ridge will Genevieve toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track the core of Hurricane Genevieve could be near the southern tip of Baja California in about 18 hours.  Genevieve will cause gusty winds over the southern part of Baja California.  It will also drop locally heavy rain which could cause flash floods.

Hurricane Genevieve Rapidly Intensifies to Cat. 4

Hurricane Genevieve rapidly intensified to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Genevieve was located at latitude 17.7°N and longitude 107.6°W which put it about 390 miles (630 km) south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California.  Genevieve was moving toward the northwest a 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 950 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to Todos Santos, Mexico.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to La Paz and from Todos Santos to Sante Fe, Mexico.

Hurricane Genevieve continued to intensify rapidly during the past 24 hours and it reached Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) formed at the center of Genevieve.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Genevieve.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane in all directions.

The circulation around Hurricane Genevieve increased in size during the past 24 hours.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Genevieve was 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 36.0.

Hurricane Genevieve will move through an environment very favorable for strong hurricanes during the next 24 hours.  Genevieve will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Genevieve could strengthen further during the next 24 hours.  If a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could occur.  The eyewall replacement cycle would cause Hurricane Genevieve to weaken.

Hurricane Genevieve will move south of a ridge of high pressure over the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico.  The high will steer Genevieve toward the northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Genevieve will pass west of Baja California.  However, Genevieve could come close enough to the coast to bring tropical storm force winds and locally heavy rain to the southern portion of Baja California.  Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Genevieve Rapidly Intensifies into a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Genevieve rapidly intensified into a hurricane southwest of Mexico on Monday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Genevieve was located at latitude 14.3°N and longitude 103.0°W which put it about 250 miles (400 km) south-southwest of Zihuantanejo, Mexico.  Genevieve was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Genevieve rapidly intensified into a hurricane during the past 24 hours.  The inner end of a rainband was wrapping around the center of circulation and an eye was forming at the center of Genevieve.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Genevieve.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane in all directions.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center.

Hurricane Genevieve will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Genevieve will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Genevieve will continue to intensify rapidly and it could strengthen into a major hurricane during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Genevieve will move south of a ridge over high pressure over the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico.  The ridge will steer Genevieve toward the west-northwest during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Genevieve could be south of Baja California on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Genevieve Spins Up Quickly South of Mexico

Tropical Storm Genevieve spun up quickly south of Mexico on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Genevieve was located at latitude 12.2°N and longitude 99.2°W which put it about 410 miles (665 km) south-southeast of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.  Genevieve was moving toward the west-northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

The circulation around former Tropical Depression Twelve-E organized quickly on Sunday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Genevieve.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Genevieve.  Storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Genevieve will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Genevieve will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Genevieve will intensify rapidly.  Genevieve will strengthen into a hurricane within 24 hours and it could intensify into a major hurricane during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Storm Genevieve will move around the southern side of a ridge of high pressure over the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico.  The ridge will steer Genevieve toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Genevieve could pass south of the Baja California during the middle of the week.

Elida Strengthens to a Hurricane South of Baja California

Former Tropical Storm Elida strengthened to a hurricane south of Baja California on Monday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Elida was located at latitude 19.6°N and longitude 110.9°W which put it about 235 miles (380 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Elida was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

The circulation around Hurricane Elida exhibited better organization on Monday afternoon.  The inner end of a rainband was wrapping around the center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Elida.  The strongest thunderstorms were in bands in the southern and eastern parts of the hurricane.  Bands in the northwestern part of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the core of Elida were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) on the eastern side of the circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center.

Hurricane Elida will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Elida will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Elida will strengthen on Tuesday.  Elida will move over cooler water during the middle of the week, which will cause it to weaken.

Hurricane Elida will move around the southern part of an ridge of high pressure that extended from northern Mexico over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Elida toward the west-northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Elida will gradually move farther away from Baja California.

Tropical Storm Elida Forms Southwest of Mexico

Tropical Storm Elida formed southwest of Mexico on Sunday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Elida was located at latitude 16.4°N and longitude 105.4°W which put it about 195 miles (310 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo,, Mexico.  Elida was moving toward the west-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

The circulation around former Tropical Depression Nine-E exhibited much more organization on Sunday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Elida.  Microwave satellite imagery suggested than an eye could be forming at the center of Elida.  A band of thunderstorms wrapped around the eastern side of the center of circulation and the band could represent the beginning of an eyewall.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Elida.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 50 miles (80 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Elida will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Elida will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical storm Elida will continue to intensify and it could strengthen into a hurricane within 24 hours.  Elida could rapidly intensify if an eye and eyewall form and it could strengthen into a major hurricane within 48 to 72 hours.

Tropical Storm Elida will move south of a ridge that extends from northern Mexico over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Elida toward the west-northwest during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Elida will pass south of Baja California.

Two Tropical Depressions Form Over Eastern Pacific

Two tropical depressions formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Monday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Seven-E was located at latitude 18.7°N and longitude 130.3°E which put it about 1345 miles (2170 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  The depression was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Eight-E was located at latitude 13.7°N and longitude 119.8°W which put it about 905 miles (1460 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  The depression was moving toward the west-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Depression Seven-E was asymmetrical.  The strongest storms were occurring in bands southwest of the center of circulation.  Bands in other parts of the depression consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The depression was already to moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature was near 25°C.  It was moving under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge which was producing northeasterly winds.  Those winds were blowing toward the top of the depression and they were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  Cooler water and wind shear were contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Depression Seven-E is likely to weaken since it will continue to move over cooler water.  The depression will move south of a subtropical high pressure system.  The high will steer the depression toward the west while it weakens.  On its anticipated track the depression will weaken long before it could pose a threat to Hawaii.

The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Depression Eight-E is also asymmetrical.  Many of the strongest storms were occurring in bands in the western half of the circulation.  Some thunderstorms began to develop in bands in the eastern half of the depression on Monday morning.  Storms on the western side of the circulation began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the depression.

Tropical Depression Eight-E will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean will produce northeasterly winds which will blow toward the top of the depression.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will have less effect because the depression will be over warmer water.  Tropical Depression Eight-E will strengthen during the next 48 hours and it could intensify into a hurricane.

Tropical Depression Eight-E will move around the southern side of the subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer the depression toward the west during the next few days.  On its anticipated track the depression will move in the general direction of Hawaii.