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Tropical Storm Linfa Nearing Northern Luzon

Tropical Storm Linfa is moving steadily toward the coast of northern Luzon.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Linfa was located at latitude 16.1°N and longitude 123.9°E which put it about 230 miles (370 km) east-northeast of Manila, Philippines.  Linfa was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

Tropical Storm Linfa has a small circulation, but it appears to be intensifying quickly.  A circular area of strong thunderstorms has developed around the center of circulation and it is producing strong upper level outflow.  Linfa is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge northwest of the tropical storm is producing some vertical wind shear, but the shear does not seem to be enough to prevent intensification.  Linfa has about 18 hours to intensify before it reaches the coast of Luzon and it could attain typhoon intensity before it gets there.  Mountains in northern Luzon will disrupt the lowers levels of the circulation and Linfa will weaken after if makes landfall.

A subtropical ridge is steering Linfa toward the northwest and that steering pattern is expected to continue until the tropical storm makes landfall in northern Luzon.   Linfa will reach the western end of the subtropical ridge while it is over Luzon and if the circulation remains intact vertically, it will turn toward the north.  On its anticipated track Linfa will make landfall in northern Luzon in about 18 hours.  It is expected to eventually turn north toward Taiwan and the southern islands of Japan.  Linfa cold bring strong winds and locally heavy rainfall for parts of northern Luzon.  Heavy rainfall could contribute to flooding and mudslides in some locations.

Tropical Storm Linfa Forms East of the Philippines

A well defined low level circulation developed in an area of thunderstorms east of the Philippines on Thursday and the system was designated as Tropical Storm Linfa (10W).  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Linfa was located at latitude 16.3°N and longitude 127.6°E which put it about 470 miles (760 km) east-northeast of Manila, Philippines.  Linfa was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (70 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Linfa developed over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 30°C,  There is sufficient energy in the upper ocean to support intensification.  An upper level ridge centered northwest of Linfa is producing northeasterly winds over the top of the circulation and most of the thunderstorms are occurring west of the center.  The vertical wind shear is modest and some upper level divergence is present, especially over the western half of the circulation.  The vertical wind shear is expected to remain moderate and Linfa could intensify during the next several days.  If the upper level winds weaken, then a period of more rapid intensification is possible.

Linfa is being steered by a subtropical ridge located to the east of the tropical storm.  The ridge is expected to steer it toward the northwest in the short term.  As Linfa reaches the western end of the ridge it is expected to be steered more toward the north.  The timing of the turn toward the north will be important because it will determine if Linfa moves over the northern Philippines or moves northeast of that area.  The timing on the turn to the north will also determine the potential risk for Taiwan.  Another factor that could complicated the track forecast is a potential interaction with Typhoon Chan-hom which is abut 1500 miles (2400 km) east-southeast of Linfa.

Typhoon Noul Expected to Head Toward Okinawa

Typhoon Noul is expected to pass east of Taiwan and move toward Okinawa on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Noul was located at latitude 21.2°N and longitude 122.4°E which put it about 260 miles south-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan, about 240 miles south-southwest of Ishigaki and about 550 miles southwest of Naha, Okinawa.  Noul was moving toward the north at 11 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 150 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 944 mb.

Noul will be moving over increasingly cooler Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) as it moves northeastward on Monday.  In addition, it will move into an area where stronger westerly winds are blowing in the upper levels of the atmosphere.  Cooler SSTs and increasing vertical wind shear will cause Noul to weaken steadily.  However, it could still be a typhoon when it passes near Okinawa.

Noul is moving around the western end of the subtropical ridge that has been steering it.  As it moves farther to the north, it will be steered by the mid-latitude westerly winds and Noul will accelerate toward the northeast.  Noul is like to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone when it passes south of Japan.

Typhoon Noul Equivalent of Category 5 Hurricane

Typhoon Noul moved into an area with very little vertical wind shear and intensified into the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday Typhoon Noul was located at latitude 17.4°N and longitude 123.1°E which put it about 130 miles east of Tuguegarao and about 85 miles southeast of Escarpada Point on the northeastern tip of Luzon.  Noul was moving toward the north-northwest at 12 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 195 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 918 mb.

Noul is at the western end of the subtropical ridge that has been steering it toward the northwest.  It should gradually turn more toward the north on Sunday.  The anticipated track will take the center of Noul very close to the northeastern tip of Luzon in a few hours.  As it moves northward, it will start to be affected by westerly winds in a day or so.  Those winds will turn it more toward the northeast and it could affect some of the southern islands of Japan early next week.

As Noul moves toward the north it will move over cooler Sea Surface Temperatures  (SSTs).  In addition the upper level westerly winds will create more vertical wind shear over Noul.  The combination of cooler SSTs and more vertical wind shear will cause Noul to weaken throughout the next few days.  However, if could still be a typhoon when it passes by Okinawa in about 48 hours.

Noul could bring strong winds and heavy rain to the northeastern tip of Luzon on Sunday.  Mudslides could be a possibility in locations that receive heavy rain.

 

Typhoon Noul Approaching the Philippines

Typhoon Noul continued to move steadily toward the west-northwest on Friday and it is approaching the northeastern Philippines.  At 3:00 pm. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Noul was located near latitude 13.9°N and longitude 127.0°E which put it about 300 miles east of Labo and about 480 miles east-southeast of Tuguegarao in the Philippines.  Noul was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 150 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 944 mb.  Noul is the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Noul is being steered to the west-northwest by a subtropical ridge located northeast of it.  As Noul nears the western end of the ridge, it is expected to begin to move more toward the northwest.  As Noul approaches the northeastern coast of Luzon, an upper level trough to the west is expected to turn it more toward the north.  The timing of the turn is still uncertain which makes the track forecast more difficult.  On its projected track Noul would approach northeastern Luzon in about 30 hours.

Noul is over Sea Surface Temperatures near 29°C and there is not much vertical wind shear.  However, there are fewer thunderstorms in the northwestern portion of the circulation and the could be some drier air in that region.  The environment is favorable for intensification but large changes in Noul’s intensity are not expected.  Noul is expected to be a significant typhoon when it approaches Luzon and it could bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to that region.  The heavy rain could lead to mudslides in areas where the slopes are steeper.

Typhoon Noul Intensfying North of Palau

Typhoon Noul continued to intensify on Wednesday as it passed north of Palau.  At 10:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Noul was located at latitude 10.7°N and longitude 133.7°E which put it about 270 miles north of Palau and about 550 miles east of the Philippines.  Noul was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 125 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

Noul is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It is moving close to the axis of an upper level ridge and so the vertical wind shear is low.  The environment is favorable for further intensification and Noul could eventually reach the equivalent of a major hurricane.

A subtropical ridge north of Noul is steering it toward the west-northwest and that motion is expected to continue for several days.   On its projected track Noul could approach the Philippines in two days and it could be near Luzon in three days.  As Noul nears Luzon it is expected to turn more toward the north.  If the circulation is intact after it crosses Luzon, it could head toward Taiwan.

Tropical Storm Fung-Wong Near Taiwan

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Fung-Wong was located at latitude 21.5°N and longitude 120.0°W which put it about 250 miles south-southwest of Taipei Taiwan.  Fung-Wong was moving just slightly east of due north at 8 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 75 m.p.h.

Fung-Wong will likely move near or across Taiwan during the next few hours.  Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, especially in locations where the circulation around Fung-Wong pushes air up the slopes of mountains.  Flooding may be an issue in areas that experience heavy rainfall.  The heaviest rainfall will likely occur on the eastern slopes of mountains as Fung-Wong moves across southern Taiwan and brings easterly winds to those areas.  However, the potential for flooding along the western slopes of mountains, especially in northern Taiwan, may exist as the tropical storm moves north of the island and the wind shifts to a more westerly direction.

Fung-Wong will likely weaken as the circulation in the lower levels is disrupted by the mountains.  It could maintain tropical storm intensity and move toward eastern China once the center emerges back over the water.