Tag Archives: Coral Sea

Weaker Tropical Cyclone Ann Nears Northern Queensland

A weaker Tropical Cyclone Ann neared northern Queensland on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ann was located at latitude 14.4°S and longitude 148.4°E which put it about 230 miles (370 km) east-northeast of Cooktown, Australia.  Ann was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Tropical Cyclone Warning that extended from Lockhart River to Cooktown including Coen and Lizard Island.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Ann weakened on Monday because of a drier, more stable environment and more vertical wind shear.  Low level convergence pulled drier, more stable air closer to the center of Tropical Cyclone Ann.  The drier, more stable air caused many of the stronger thunderstorms to weaken.  Despite the drier, more stable environment stronger thunderstorms redeveloped south of the center of circulation late on Monday.  Tropical Cyclone Ann was moving near the northwestern portion of an upper level ridge.  The ridge produced easterly winds which caused moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear also contributed to the weakening of storms in the northern half of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Ann continued to have a distinct low level center of circulation despite the less favorable environment.  However, the wind field exhibited a more asymmetric structure.  The strongest winds were occurring in an area of thunderstorms south of the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center in the southern half of the circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out about 50 miles (80 km) from the center in the northern half of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Ann will continue to move through a less favorable environment during the next 24 hours.  Ann will move over water in the Coral Sea where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27.5°C.  It will continue to move through a region where there is drier, more stable air and the upper level ridge will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The drier, more stable air and moderate vertical wind shear will prevent significant intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Ann could maintain its intensity during the next 12 hours, but it may weaken when it approaches the coast of the Cape York Peninsula.

Tropical Cyclone Ann will move north of a ridge which will steer Ann toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Ann will make landfall on the Cape York Peninsula in northern Queensland in about 24 hours.  Ann will bring some gusty winds, but the greatest risk will be locally heavy rain.

Tropical Cyclone Ann Strengthens Over Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Ann strengthened over the Coral Sea on Sunday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ann was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 153.6°E which put it about 565 miles (910 km) east of Cairns, Australia.  Ann was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Ann exhibited greater organization on Sunday.  There were indications on satellite images that a cloud filled eye might be trying to form at the center of circulation.  A broken ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Ann.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Ann will be moving through an environment that contains factors favorable for intensification and a factor that will inhibit potential intensification.  Ann will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  So, there will be sufficient energy in the upper ocean to support intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Ann will move north of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Ann is surrounded by drier more stable air and the drier air is the factor that will inhibit intensification.  So far, the circulation around Ann has kept the drier air outside the tropical cyclone.  If the drier air remains outside the circulation, then Tropical Cyclone Ann would have a chance to strengthen.  However, if the drier air gets pulled into the circulation, then Ann will weaken.  The higher probability is that Tropical Cyclone Ann could maintain its intensity or weaken slowly during the next day or two depending on what happens to the drier air.

Tropical Cyclone Ann will move north of an area of high pressure, which will steer the tropical cyclone toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Ann will approach the Cape York Peninsula north of Coen in less than 48 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Ann could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to northern Queensland.

Tropical Cyclone Ann Forms Over Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Ann formed over the Coral Sea on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ann was located at latitude 16.3°S and longitude 158.7°E which put it about 875 miles (1410 km) east of Cairns, Australia.  Ann was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation became more evident in satellite images of a low pressure system over the eastern Coral Sea on Saturday and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone Ann.  A rainband wrapped around the southern and western sides of the center of circulation.  A microwave satellite image indicated that the band may have wrapped completely around the center in the middle levels of the circulation.  Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Ann was relatively small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 85 miles (135 km) from the center of circulation in the southern half of Ann.

Tropical Cyclone Ann will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next day or two.  Ann will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28.5°C.  It will move south of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will cause some vertical wind shear.  The shear will inhibit intensification, but it is not likely to be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Ann is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

The ridge will steer Tropical Cyclone Ann toward the west-northwest during the next two to three days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Ann will approach the Cape York Peninsula in northern Queensland in about 72 hours.  Ann could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain.

Elsewhere around the tropics in the southern hemisphere, Tropical Cyclone Lili was weakening near the coast of East Timor.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Lili was located at latitude 9.1°S and longitude 126.8°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) east-northeast of Suai, East Timor.  Lili was moving toward the west at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Rapidly Intensifying Tropical Cyclone Trevor Nears Cape York Peninsula

Rapidly intensifying Tropical Cyclone Trevor neared the Cape York Peninsula on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Trevor was located at latitude 13.0°S and longitude 144.3°E which put it about 80 miles (130 km) east of Lockhart River, Australia.  Trevor was moving toward the west-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued Tropical Cyclone Warnings for the portion of the east coast of the Cape York Peninsula from Orford Ness to Cape Flattery, from Mapoon to Pormpuraaw on the west coast of the peninsula and for inland locations between the two coasts.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor rapidly intensified into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Monday.  An eye with a diameter of 15 miles (24 km) developed at the center of circulation.  The eye was surround by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Trevor.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Trevor was relatively small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 30 miles (50 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 90 miles (145 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Trevor was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 28.8.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor will remain in an environment favorable for intensification for another 12 hours until it makes landfall.  Trevor will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor could intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane before it makes landfall.  It will take Trevor about 24 hours to cross the Cape York Peninsula.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor will weaken during that time.  Trevor will emerge over the Gulf of Carpentaria in about 36 hours and it will strengthen again after it gets back over water.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor will move around the northwestern portion of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge will steer Trevor toward the west-southwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Trevor will make landfall near or just to the south of Lockhart River in about 12 hours.    Trevor is forecast to move westward across the Cape York Peninsula.  it is likely to emerge over the Gulf of Carpentaria between Weipa and Aurukun in about 36 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor will be capable of causing major damage.  It will bring strong winds and a storm surge to the area around Lockhart River.  Trevor will drop locally heavy rain over parts of the Cape York Peninsula and flooding could occur in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor could threaten the Northern Territory of Australia later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor Develops Over Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Trevor developed over the Coral Sea on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Trevor was located at latitude 13.2°S and longitude 146.1°E which put it about 190 miles (305 km) east of Lockhart River, Australia.  Trevor was moving toward the south-southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the Coral Sea organized quickly on Sunday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Trevor.  An inner rainband wrapped around the center of circulation and there were indications that an eye could be starting to form.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing in all parts of the Tropical Cyclone Trevor and the circulation was symmetrical.  Storms near the center of Trevor were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Trevor will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Trevor will intensify during the next day or so and it could intensify rapidly.  It is likely to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor will move around the northwestern portion of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge will steer Trevor toward the west-southwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Trevor could reach the east coast of the Cape York peninsula in about 36 hours.  Trevor could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon by that time.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has issued a Tropical Cyclone Warning for the portion of the coast from Cape Grenville to Cape Flattery.  Tropical Cyclone Watches are in effect for the portions of the coast from Cape York to Cape Grenville and from Cape Flattery to Cape Tribulation.

Wutip Intensifies Into a Typhoon Southeast of Guam

Former Tropical Storm Wutip intensified into a typhoon southeast of Guam on Wednesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Wutip was located at latitude 6.5°N and longitude 150.0°E which put it about 640 miles (1035 km) southeast of Guam.  Wutip was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan.  A Typhoon Warning is in effect for Satawal and Puluwat.  A Tropical Storm Warning and a Typhoon Watch are in effect for Ulul and Faraulep.

Typhoon Wutip continued to exhibit better organization on Wednesday.  A cluster of thunderstorms remained near the center of circulation.  A band of storms wrapped around the southern side of the center, which could indicate the start of the formation of an eyewall.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Wutip.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 160 miles (260 km) from the center.

Typhoon Wutip will move through an environment favorable for intensification for several more days.  Wutip will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  Typhoon Wutip will move around the western end of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will create some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be great enough to prevent intensification.  Typhoon Wutip will continue to intensify and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane within 36 hours.

The ridge will steer Typhoon Wutip in a northwesterly direction during the next 48 hours.  Wutip is likely to turn more toward the north-northwest when it approaches the western end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Wutip could be south of Guam in 36 to 48 hours.  Wutip could be the equivalent of a major hurricane at that time.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Oma continued to spin over the Coral Sea between New Caledonia and Australia.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Oma was located at latitude 22.7°S and longitude159.8°E which put it about 560 miles (905 km) northeast of Brisbane, Australia.  Oma was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Oma Strengthens Northwest of New Caledonia

Tropical Cyclone Oma strengthened over the Coral Sea northwest of New Caledonia on Monday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Oma was located at latitude 19.9°S and longitude 162.1°E which put it about 295 miles (475 km) west-northwest of Noumea, New Caldonia.  Oma was moving toward the south-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 966 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Oma strengthened on Monday.  A broken ring of thunderstorms developed around a large eye at the center of circulation.  The eye had a diameter of approximately 60 miles (95 km).  The strongest winds were occurring in the parts of the ring with active thunderstorms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the large inner core of Tropical Cyclone Oma.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 200 miles (320 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Oma will be moving through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Oma will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28.5°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Oma is likely to intensify during the next day or so.

Tropical Cyclone Oma will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge over the South Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Oma in a southwesterly direction during the next several days.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Oma will pass west of New Caledonia.  However, rainbands on the eastern side of the circulation could drop locally heavy rain over New Caledonia.  Those rainbands could also produce winds to tropical storm force over northern New Caledonia.

Tropical Cyclone Oma Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Oma strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Coral Sea north of New Caledonia on Friday.  At 1:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Oma was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 164.2°E which put it about 300 miles (485 km) north of New Caledonia.  Oma was moving toward the west-southwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Oma continued to become better organized on Friday.  A ring of thunderstorms wrapped around much of the center of circulation and there were indications on satellite images that an eye could be forming.  The strongest thunderstorms were the northwestern part of the ring.  The ring was thinner east of the center and there were several breaks in that portion of the ring.  Storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from core of the tropical cyclone.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation.  The bands were stronger north and west of the center and the stronger winds were occurring in that part of Tropical Cyclone Oma.

Tropical Cyclone Oma will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next day or two.  Oma will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Oma is likely to strengthen more and there is a chance that it could intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Oma will move slowly around the western end of a strengthening subtropical ridge.  The ridge will steer Oma slowly toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Oma will move toward the southwest more rapidly in a day or so when the subtropical ridge is stronger.  On its anticipated track the core of Tropical Cyclone Oma could pass near the northernmost islands of New Caledonia in 24 to 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Oma Spins Northwest of Vanuatu

Tropical Cyclone Oma continued to spin over the Coral Sea northwest of Vanuatu on Thursday.  At 7:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Oma was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 165.1°E which put it about 260 miles (420 km) northwest of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  Oma was nearly stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Oma exhibited evidence of greater organization on Thursday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped more tightly around the center of circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms also exhibited greater organization.   Storms around the center of circulation generated more upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 200 miles (320 km) from the center of circulation.

Once Tropical Cyclone Oma starts to move, it will move through an area favorable for intensification.  Oma will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move into a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Oma will be likely to intensify and it will likely strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Oma has been in an area where the winds at the steering level were weak and it has moved little during the past several days.  An upper level ridge east of Oma is forecast to strengthen during the next few days.  When the ridge strengthens, it will start to steer Tropical Cyclone Oma toward the southwest.  On its anticipated track Oma will move slowly away from Vanuatu and it could be north of New Caledonia in a few days.

Tropical Cyclone Oma Forms Northwest of Vanuatu

Tropical Cyclone Oma formed over the Coral Sea northwest of Vanuatu on Tuesday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Oma was located at latitude 13.8°S and longitude 165.6°E which put it about 330 miles (535 km) northwest of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  Oma was moving toward the east at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation formed within a broader area of low pressure northwest of Vanuatu on Tuesday and the Fiji Meteorological Service designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Oma.  The distribution of thunderstorms around Oma was asymmetrical.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands northwest of the center of circulation.  Bands southeast of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The thunderstorms northwest of the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the northwest of the tropical cyclone.

An upper level ridge northeast of Vanuatu was producing southeasterly winds which were blowing toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Oma.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and they were inhibiting upper level divergence to the southeast of Oma.  The wind shear was the probable cause of the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Cyclone Oma will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next several days.  The upper level ridge will continue to cause vertical wind shear.  However, Oma will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  Tropical Cyclone Oma could slowly strengthen during the next day or two.

Tropical Cyclone Oma is currently embedded in a monsoon trough that is steering it toward the east.  A subtropical ridge is forecast to strengthen east of Vanuatu.  Oma will slow down while the ridge builds east of Vanuatu and it could linger northwest of Vanuatu for several days.  The ridge will eventually turn Tropical Cyclone Oma toward the south.  The timing and location of that turn will be important.  If Oma moves farther east before it turns southward, then it could approach northwest Vanuatu in 24 to 36 hours.  If Oma stalls and then turns southward, then the strongest part of the tropical cyclone could pass west of Vanuatu.  Tropical Cyclone Oma could eventually move near New Caledonia in a few days.