Tag Archives: Niue

Tropical Cyclone Victor Intensifies East of Niue

Tropical Cyclone Victor intensified on Monday and it is now the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone  Victor was located at latitude 20.2°S and longitude 166.3°W which put it about 175 miles (280 km) east-southeast of Niue.  Victor was moving toward the south-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Victor has an unusual structure.  It has a very large eye, which is about one degree of longitude across.  The eye is surrounded by a narrow eyewall of strong thunderstorms and a couple of thin, primary rainbands.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 200 miles (320 km) from the center of circulation.  The thunderstorms in the eyewall are generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping out mass.  The eye has appeared to contract a bit on recent satellite imagery, which could be a sign of further intensification.

Tropical Cyclone Victor is an environment that is favorable for intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 27°C.  An upper level ridge located northeast of Victor is producing some light northwesterly winds over the top of the tropical cyclone.  However, the vertical wind shear is minimal and it is not inhibiting intensification at this time.  Victor could continue to intensify on Tuesday.  Later this week Tropical Cyclone Victor will move into an environment with cooler SSTs and more wind shear.  Victor will start to weakening when it enters that environment.

The ridge northeast of Victor is getting stronger and it is forcing the tropical cyclone to move toward the west-southwest.  That general motion is expected to continue for the next several days.  On its anticipated track the core of Tropical Cyclone Victor with the strongest winds will pass south of Niue during the next 48 hours.  However, Tropical Cyclone Victor could bring a period of strong winds and rain to Niue as it moves south of the islands.  The large wind field around Victor could also generate significant waves and surges.  Tropical Cyclone Victor could be approaching Tonga later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Ula Becomes Equivalent of Cat. 2 Hurricane South of Samoa

Tropical Cyclone Ula intensified quickly Wednesday into the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ula was located at latitude 16.3°N and longitude 170.4°W which put it about 135 miles (220 km/h) south-southeast of Pago Pago, Samoa.  Ula was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Ula has a small, well organized inner core.  An eye has appeared intermittently on satellite imagery.  Thunderstorms near the core are generating upper level divergence which is pumping out mass and allowing the surface pressure to decrease.

Tropical Cyclone Ula is moving through an environment favorable for intensification.  It is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28.5°C.  The upper level winds are not very strong and there is not much vertical wind shear.  Ula could intensify a little more during the next 24 hours.

A subtropical ridge is steering Tropical Cyclone Ula toward the southwest and a general west-southwesterly motion is expected to continue during the next several days.  Ula is centered between Samoa, Niue and Tonga.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Ula will approach Tonga in about 24 hours.  It could be approaching Fiji in about three days.  Tropical Cyclone Ula is capable of bringing strong winds, high surf and heavy rain to the islands in its path.