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Typhoon Kammuri Strengthens North of Yap

Typhoon Kammuri strengthened north of Yap on Wednesday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Kammuri was located at latitude 12.0°N and longitude 138.8°E which put it about 160 miles (260 km) north-northeast of Yap.  Kammuri was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

Typhoon Kammuri continued to get stronger on Wednesday night.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of circulation and an eye was clearing out at the center of Kammuri.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation.  The strongest rainbands were in the western half of Typhoon Kammuri.  Storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center.

Typhoon Kammuri will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few days.  Kammuri will move over where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through an environment where the upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Kammuri will continue to intensify and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane within 24 to 36 hours.  A period of rapid intensification could occur once an eye and eyewall are fully formed.

Typhoon Kammuri will move near the western end of a subtropical high pressure sytem over the Western North Pacific Ocean during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Kammuri could move more toward the northwest during that time period.  A second surface high pressure system will move eastward from Asia.  The second high will eventually block Typhoon Kammuri from moving northward and that high pressure system will steer Kammuri toward the west.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Kammuri could approach the Philippines in five or six days.  Kammuri could be a very strong typhoon when it approaches the Philippines.

Tropical Storm Kammuri Passes South of Guam

Tropical Storm Kammuri passed south of Guam on Tuesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Kammuri was located at latitude 11.8°N and longitude 141.8°E which put it about 225 miles (365 km) southwest of Guam.  Kammuri was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.  The Tropical Storm Warnings for Guam, Rota, Saipan and Tinian were discontinued.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Kammuri exhibited greater organization on Tuesday.  Rainbands around the center of circulation were more circular.  Storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the north and west of the tropical storm.  There were also more thunderstorms in bands north and west of the center of Kammuri.  Bands southeast of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The wind field around Tropical Storm Kammuri was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out farther in the northern half of the circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 240 miles (340 km) to the northeast of the center of Kammuri.  In contrast, tropical storm force winds only extended out 75 miles (120 km) to the southeast of the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Kammuri will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few days.  Kammuri will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The shear will slow the rate of intensification, but it will not be strong enough to prevent Tropical Storm Kammuri from getting stronger.  Kammuri is likely to intensify into a typhoon during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane later this week.

Tropical Storm Kammuri will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western Pacific Ocean during the next 48 to 72 hours.  The ridge will steer Kammuri toward the northwest.  A second high pressure system will move eastward from Asia in about three days.  The second high will block Tropical Storm Kammuri from moving any farther toward the north and the high will steer Kammuri toward the west during the weekend.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Kammuri will gradually move closer to the Philippines.

Elsewhere, over the South Pacific Ocean near Vanuatu vertical wind shear weakened Tropical Cyclone Rita.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Rita was located at latitude 15.3°S and longitude 169.0°E which put it about 180 miles (290 km) north of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  Rita was moving toward the south at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Storm Kammuri Forms, Warnings Issued for Marianas

Tropical Storm Kammuri formed on Monday and warnings were issued for the Marianas.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Kammuri was located at latitude 10.2°N and longitude 149.0°E which put it about 415 miles (665 km) southeast of Guam.  Kammuri was moving toward the west-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of a large low pressure system southeast of Guam on Monday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Kammuri.  The circulation around Kammuri was still organizing on Monday night.  Multiple bands of showers and thunderstorms were forming and the bands were starting to revolve around the center of circulation.  Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm in all directions.

Tropical Storm Kammuri will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few days.  Kammuri will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Kammuri will continue to intensify and it could strengthen into a typhoon within 36 hours.  Kammuri could eventually intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Storm Kammuri will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean during the next two days.  The high will steer Kammuri toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Kammuri will pass south of Guam in about 18 to 24 hours.  Kammuri could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain.  An upper level trough will approach Tropical Storm Kammuri from the northwest in about 48 hours.  The trough will weaken the upper level ridge and the steering currents will weaken.  Kammuri could meander after the steering currents weaken.

Elsewhere, over the South Pacific Ocean Tropical Cyclone Rita was weakening northeast of Vanuatu.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Rita was located at latitude 14.3°S and longitude 170.0°E which put it about 265 miles (430 km) north-northeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  Rita was moving toward the south-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Storm Tokage Develops Over the Central Philippines

A distinct center of circulation developed within a cluster of thunderstorms over the central Philippines on Thursday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Tokage.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Tokage was located at latitude 11.7°N and longitude 122.0°E which put it near the northwestern tip of Panay Island and about 235 miles (380 km) south-southeast of Manila, Philippines.  Tokage was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The core of the circulation of Tropical Storm Tokage is still organizing.  An inner band of thunderstorms wraps around the western and southern sides of the center of circulation.  An outer rainband wraps around the northern side of the circulation from the northeastern to the southwestern quadrants.  Thunderstorms near the core of Tokage are generating upper level divergence which is pumping mass away to the west and north of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Tokage will be moving through an environment that is favorable for intensification.  Tokage will be moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level ridge east of Tokage is producing southeasterly winds which are blowing against the tropical storm.  Although those winds are restricting upper level divergence on the southeast side of Tokage, the overall effect of the vertical wind shear is minor.  Tropical Storm Tokage is likely to intensify during the next day or two and it could reach typhoon intensity.

Tokage is moving around the southwestern portion of a subtropical ridge which is steering the tropical storm to the west-northwest.  That general motion is expected to continue for another 12 to 24 hours.   After that time Tropical Storm Tokage will reach the western end of the subtropical ridge and it will begin to move toward the north.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Tokage will pass near Mindoro Island and the Calamian Group during the next 12 hours.  It will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to those islands.  Tokage is likely to pass west of Luzon.