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Typhoon Bualoi Strengthens to Equivalent of Major Hurricane over Marianas

Typhoon Bualoi strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the Marianas on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Bualoi was located at latitude 16.7°N and longitude 145.5°E which put it about 660 miles (1060 km) south-southeast of Iwo To.  Bualoi was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

Typhoon Bualoi continued to intensify quickly on Monday.  There was a small eye at the center of Bualoi.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Bualoi.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon in all directions.

The circulation around Typhoon Bualoi was small.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Bualoi was 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.0 and the Hurricane Wind intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 35.1.  Typhoon Bualoi was capable of causing localized major damage.  The core of Bualoi where the strongest winds were occurring passed north of Saipan.

Typhoon Bualoi will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong typhoon for another 24 to 36 hours.  Bualoi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Bualoi could strengthen during the next 24 hours.  If an inner rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause the typhoon to start to weaken.

Typhoon Bualoi will move around the western end of high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Bualoi toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  The typhoon will move more toward the north when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Bualoi will move away from the Northern Marianas.  Conditions should improve when Bualoi gets farther away.  Typhoon Bualoi could be near Iwo To in about 60 hours.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Neoguri was moving south of Honshu.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Neoguri was located at latitude 32.4°N and longitude 137.6°E which put it about 285 miles (460 km) southwest of Tokyo, Japan.  Neoguri was moving toward the east-northeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.  The center of Tropical Storm Neoguri is likely to pass south of Tokyo during in about 12 hours.

Typhoon Bualoi Strengthens as it Approaches the Marianas

Typhoon Bualoi strengthened as it approached the Marianas on Sunday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Bualoi was located at latitude 14.5°N and longitude 147.8°E which put it about 175 miles (285 km) east-southeast of Saipan.  Bualoi was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

Typhoon Warnings were in effect for Tinian and Saipan.  A Typhoon Watch was in effect for Rota.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Alamagan, Pagan and Agrihan.

Typhoon Bualoi strengthened quickly on Sunday.  A small circular eye developed at the center of Bualoi.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the typhoon.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from Bualoi in all directions.

The circulation around Typhoon Bualoi was relatively small.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (215 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Bualoi was 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 26.3.  Bualoi was capable of causing localized serious damage.

Typhoon Bualoi will move through an environment favorable for intensification for another 36 to 48 hours.  Bualoi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Bualoi will continue to intensify and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 12 to 24 hours.

Typhoon Bualoi will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific.  The high will steer Bualoi toward the northwest during the next 48 hours.  The typhoon will move more toward the north when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Bualoi could pass near Saipan in about 12 hours.  If the center passes near or over Saipan, then there will be winds of typhoon force.  However, since the circulation around Bualoi is fairly small, if the typhoon passes north of Saipan, it will receive much weaker winds.  Typhoon Bualoi could be near Iwo To in less than three days.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Neoguri was moving toward Honshu.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Neoguri was located at latitude 29.5°N and longitude 133.6°E which put it about 600 miles (965 km) southwest of Tokyo, Japan.  Neoguri was moving toward the north-northeast at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.  Tropical Storm Neoguri could pass close to the coast of Honshu near Tokyo in about 24 hours.

Typhoon Hagibis Aims at Tokyo

Typhoon Hagibis was aimed at Tokyo on Friday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Hagibis was located at latitude 31.5°N and longitude 137.4°E which put it about 345 miles (555 km) south-southwest of Tokyo, Japan.  Hagibis was moving toward the north at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

Typhoon Hagibis was weakening slowly as it shifted onto a course toward Tokyo.  An eye was no longer visible on satellites images.  The ring of strong thunderstorms around the center of Hagibis was weaker in the southern half of the ring.  Most of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern half of Typhoon Hagibis.  Bands in the southern half of Hagibis consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  An upper level trough over eastern Asia was producing southwesterly winds which were causing moderate vertical wind shear.   In addition, Typhoon Hagibis appeared to be pulling drier air into the southern half of the circulation.  The combination of wind shear and drier seemed to have weakened the southern half of the typhoon.

Even though it had weakened, Typhoon Hagibis remained a dangerous typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 190 miles (305 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hagibis was 22.1  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 21.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 43.6.  Typhoon Hagibis was capable of causing major damage.

The upper level trough over eastern Asia will steer Typhoon Hagibis toward the northeast during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Hagibis could approach the coast of Honshu southeast of Tokyo in 12 to 18 hours.  Hagibis will continue to weaken as it moves toward Tokyo, but it will still be a typhoon when it reaches the region around Tokyo  Typhoon Hagibis will bring damaging winds to the Tokyo metropolitan area.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms on the northern side of Hagibis are already dropping rain over portions of Honshu southeast of Tokyo.  The rain will continue for another 12 to 24 hours in many locations.  Locally heavy rain will cause flash floods in some parts of Honshu.

Large Typhoon Hagibis Threatens Honshu

Large Typhoon Hagibis threatened Honshu on Thursday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Hagibis was located at latitude 27.9°N and longitude 137.8°E which put it about 555 miles (895 km) south-southwest of Tokyo, Japan.  Hagibis was moving toward the north-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 933 mb.

Powerful Typhoon Hagibis weakened slowly on Thursday.  There was still a circular eye at the center of Hagibis and the eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  The strongest winds were in the ring of thunderstorms, but the wind speed decreased slowly during Thursday.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Hagibis.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon.

Although the circulation around Typhoon Hagibis weakened slowly on Thursday, it remained a large typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 345 miles (545 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Hagibis was 28.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 28.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 56.9,  Hagibis was capable of causing widespread significant damage.

Typhoon Hagibis will continue to weaken slowly on Friday.  Hagibis will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  An upper level trough over eastern Asia will move toward Typhoon Hagibis.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Hagibis.  The wind shear caused by those winds will create increasing vertical wind shear.  Increased wind shear will cause Typhoon Hagibis to weaken a little more quickly in 12 to 24 hours.

Typhoon Hagibis will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean on Friday.  The high will steer Hagibis toward the north during the next 12 to 24 hours.  The upper level trough over eastern Asia will steer Typhoon Hagibis toward the northeast in about 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Hagibis could reach the coast of Honshu near Tokyo in less than 36 hours.  Hagibis will still be a typhoon when it reaches Tokyo.  It will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the part of Honshu around Tokyo.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Powerful Typhoon Hagibis Continues Toward Honshu

Powerful Typhoon Hagibis continue to move toward Honshu on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Hagibis was located at latitude 23.7°N and longitude 139.5°E which put it about 140 miles (225 km) west-southwest of Iwo To.  Hagibis was moving toward the north at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (315 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 918 mb.

Typhoon Hagibis continued to have a powerful, large circulation on Wednesday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) was at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Hagibis.  The rainbands in the northwestern quadrant of Hagibis were a little weaker than the bands in other parts of the typhoon.  Some drier air may have been being pulled into the the northwestern quadrant of the circulation.  Storms around the core of the typhoon continue to generate strong upper level divergence.

The strength of the winds around Typhoon Hagibis exhibited more asymmetry on Wednesday.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation in the northeastern part of Hagibis.  Winds to typhoon force were occurring within 100 miles (160 km) of the center in the other parts of Typhoon Hagibis.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 370 miles (565 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Hagibis was 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 39.9 and he Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 74.9.  Typhoon Hagibis was capable of causing extensive catastrophic damage.

Typhoon Habigis will continue to move through an environment capable of supporting strong  typhoons, but Hagibis is likely to start to weaken on Thursday.  Typhoon Hagibis will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C, but that is slightly cooler than the water Hagibis has been over.  Typhoon Hagibis will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak during the next 24 hours.  There will be little vertical wind shear on Thursday, and so Hagibis will likely weaken slowly.  Typhoon Hagibis will move closer to upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes on Friday.  When Hagibis gets closer to the stronger upper level winds, vertical wind shear will increase and the typhoon will weaken more quickly.  The large circulation around Typhoon Hagibis will slow the rate of weakening even when the wind shear increases.

Typhoon Hagibis will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean during the next 24 hours.  The high will steer Hagibis toward the north on Thursday.  Typhoon Hagibis will move toward the northeast on Friday when it reaches the upper level westerly winds.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Hagibis will move west of Iwo To during the next 24 hours.  Hagibis will bring winds to tropical storm force to Iwo To and there is a chance that the winds could reach typhoon force at times.  Rainbands on the eastern side of the typhoon will drop heavy rain on Iwo To.  Typhoon Hagibis could approach the coast of Honshu near Tokyo in a little over 48 hours.  Hagibis will still be a typhoon when it approaches Tokyo.  It will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of Honshu.  Typhoon Hagibis could also produce winds to tropical storm force on Shikoku.

Large Powerful Typhoon Hagibis Turns Toward Japan

Large powerful Typhoon Hagibis turned toward Japan on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Hagibis was located at latitude 20.2°N and longitude 140.1°E which put it about 350 miles (565 km) south of Iwo To.  Hagibis was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (315 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 915 mb.

Typhoon Hagibis appeared to complete an eyewall replacement cycle on Tuesday.  The original tiny pinhole eye was no longer visible on satellite imagery.  A larger circular eye with a diameter of 24 miles (39 km) was at the center of Hagibis.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Hagibis.  Storms around the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon in all directions.

Completion of the eyewall replacement cycle increased the size of the circulation around Typhoon Hagibis.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 350 miles (565 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Hagibis was 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 38.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 73.1.  Hagibis was capable of causing extensive catastrophic damage.

Typhoon Hagibis will move through an environment capable of supporting intense typhoons during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Hagibis will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Hagibis will move closer to the upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes in two or three days.  Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear and Hagibis will weaken when the shear increases.

Typhoon Hagibis will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Hagibis toward the north-northwest during the next 48 hours.  The upper level westerly winds will steer Typhoon Hagibis quickly toward the northeast later this week.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Hagibis could approach the coast of Honshu near Tokyo in 72 to 84 hours.  Hagibis could bring strong winds and heavy rain to Tokyo.  The large circulation around Typhoon Hagibis will mean that much of central Honshu could experience gusty winds and winds to tropical storm force could affect parts of Kyushu and Shikoku.

Typhoon Hagibis Strengthens to Equivalent of Cat. 5 Hurricane over Northern Marianas

Typhoon Hagibis strengthened to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the Northern Marianas on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon was located at latitude 16.8°N and longitude 144.8°E which put it about 195 miles (305 km) north-northwest of Guam.  Hagibis was moving toward the west-northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 915 mb.

Typhoon Hagibis rapidly intensified into the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on Monday.  A small, pinhole eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  The strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  A rainband appeared to be wrapping around the original eye and eyewall and an eyewall replacement cycle could be underway.  The start of an eyewall replacement cycle may have ended the period of rapid intensification.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Hagibis.  Storms around the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon.

The apparent beginning of an eyewall replacement cycle produced an increase in the size of the circulation around Typhoon Hagibis.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 250 miles (400 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Hagibis was 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 27.8 and the Hurricane Wind intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 62.8.  Hagibis was capable of causing catastrophic damage.

The center of Typhoon Hagibis passed north of Tinian and Saipan.  Hagibis would have produced very strong winds on some of the Northern Marianas.  The strongest winds would have occurred between Saipan and Alamagan.  Typhoon Hagibis also dropped heavy rain over Saipan, Tinian, Rota and Guam.

Typhoon Hagibis will remain in an environment very favorable for strong typhoons during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Hagibis will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Hagibis is likely to weaken, while the inner eyewall dissipates and the outer eyewall becomes the part of the typhoon with the strongest winds.  Hagibis could strengthen again if the outer eyewall begins to contract.  An eyewall replacement cycle would increase the size of the circulation.

Typhoon Hagibis will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Hagibis toward the northwest during the next several days.  Typhoon Hagibis will move toward the northeast after it moves around the western of the high pressure system.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Hagibis could approach the coast of Honshu near Tokyo by the end of this week.

Typhoon Hagibis Rapidly Intensifies Into Equivalent of Major Hurricane

Typhoon Hagibis rapidly intensified into the equivalent of a major hurricane east of the Marianas on Sunday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the cener of Typhoon Hagibis was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 148.8°E which put it about 320 miles (515 km) east-northeast of Guam.  Hagibis was moving toward the west-northwest at 19 m.p.h. (31 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 953 mb.

Typhoon Warnings were in effect for Tinian, Saipan, Alamagan and Pagan.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Rota and Agrihan.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Guam.

Typhoon Hagibis intensified very rapidly on Sunday night.  The maximum sustained wind speed increased from 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) in six hours.  A small circular eye formed at the center of Hagibis and a ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye.  The strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the typhoon.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away in all directions.  The removal of mass was allowing the minimum surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Typhoon Hagibis was increasing in size.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Hagibis was 20.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 18.1 and the Hurricane Wind intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 38,3,  Typhoon Hagibis was capable of causing major damage.

Typhoon Hagibis will continue to move through an environment very favorable for intensification for another 24 to 36 hours.  Hagibis will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Hagibis could continue to intensify rapidly and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale during the next 24 hours.  At some point a rainband is likely to wrap around the existing eye and eyewall and an eyewall replacement cycle will end the intensification of Typhoon Hagibis.

Typhoon Hagibis will move around the southwestern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Hagibis toward the west-northwest during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Hagibis will turn more toward the northwest in a day or so.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Hagibis will reach the Marianas in about 12 hours.  The center of Hagibis is likely to pass north of Saipan.  Typhoon Hagibis will bring strong winds and heavy rain.  It will be capable of causing major damage to the Northern Marianas.  Typhoon Hagibis could approach southwestern Japan in four or five days.

Hurricane Lorenzo Brings Wind and Rain to the Azores

Hurricane Lorenzo brought wind and rain to the Azores on Tuesday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located at latitude 39.1°N and longitude 32.7°W which put it about 85 miles (135 km) west-southwest of Flores Island, Azores.  Lorenzo was moving toward the northeast at 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for the western and central Azores including Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa and Terceira. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the eastern Azores including Sao Miguel and Santa Maria.

Although Hurricane Lorenzo moved into a more extratropical environment, it remained a large and powerful hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 390 miles (630 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Lorenzo was 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 50.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 66.7.  The radius of hurricane force winds was larger in Hurricane Lorenzo than it was in Hurricane Sandy in 2012.  The overall size of Hurricane Lorenzo was similar to the size of Hurricane Sandy.

Hurricane Lorenzo will move into an extratropical environment during the next several days.  Lorenzo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is colder than 24°C.  An upper level trough over the north Atlantic Ocean will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear.  The colder water and strong shear will cause Hurricane Lorenzo to weaken gradually.  The cooler, more strongly sheared environment will also cause Hurricane Lorenzo to make a transition into a strong extratropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

The upper level trough will steer Hurricane Lorenzo rapidly toward the northeast during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Lorenzo will turn more toward the east later on Thursday.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Lorenzo will bring strong winds, large waves and heavy rain to the Azores on Wednesday.  Lorenzo will be capable of causing extensive serious damage.  The extratropically transitioned Hurricane Lorenzo could approach Ireland and the United Kingdom on Thursday night and Friday.

Hurricane Lorenzo Prompts Watches for the Azores

The risk posed by Hurricane Lorenzo prompted the issuance of watches for the Azores.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located at latitude 27.6°N and longitude 43.5°W which put it about 1195 miles (1920 km) west-southwest of the Azores.  Lorenzo was moving toward the north-northeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

Hurricane Watches were issued for the western and central Azores including Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira.  Tropical Storm Watches were issued for the eastern Azores including Sao Miguel and Santa Maria.

Hurricane Lorenzo weakened on Sunday when it moved into a less favorable environment.  Lorenzo moved over water where the Sea Surface Temperature was a little cooler.  In addition, an upper level trough west of Hurricane Lorenzo was producing southwesterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those upper level winds were causing more vertical wind shear.  The combination of cooler water and more shear was responsible for weakening Hurricane Lorenzo.

Even though Hurricane Lorenzo weakened on Sunday it remained a large and powerful hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 250 miles (400 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Lorenzo was 19.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) 32.6 was and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 51.8.  Hurricane Lorenzo was capable of causing widespread serious damage.

Hurricane Lorenzo is likely to continue to weaken slowly during the next several days because of the less favorable environment consisting of cooler water and more vertical wind shear.  Since the circulation around Lorenzo is so large, the hurricane will weaken slowly.

The upper level trough will steer Hurricane Lorenzo toward the northeast during the next two or three days.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Lorenzo could reach the Azores by Tuesday night.  Lorenzo could be a large hurricane capable of causing widespread serious damage when it reaches the Azores.