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Typhoon Goni Passing West of Okinawa

The center of powerful Typhoon Goni is passing west of Okinawa.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Goni was located at latitude 26.9°N and longitude 126.3°E which put it about 125 miles (200 km) west of Okinawa.  Goni was moving northeast at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 937 mb.

An upper level trough northwest of Goni contributed to the development of an outflow channel which pumped out mass and allowed the typhoon to intensify on Sunday.  Goni is a strong well organized typhoon with an eye and a well formed eyewall.  Spiral bands of thunderstorms are rotating around the core of the circulation.  A weather station on Ishigaki Jima, Japan reported a wind gust to 97 m.p.h. (155 km/h) when Goni passed over the island.  Goni is moving over warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and it could maintain its intensity for another 24 hours.  After that time it will move over cooler SSTs and the upper level trough will generate more vertical wind shear.  Goni will finally start to spin down when it moves west of Kyushu.

The upper level trough will continue to pull Goni toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Goni will approach western Kyushu in about 24 hours.  It could bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of western Japan.

Typhoon Goni Heading Toward Western Japan

Typhoon Goni turned north-northeastward and began moving toward western Japan on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Goni was located at latitude 22.7°N and longitude 123.4°E which put it about 270 miles (435 km) southeast of Taipei, Taiwan and about 410 miles (660 km) southwest of Okinawa.  Goni was moving toward the north-northeast at 11 m.p.h. (18 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

The circulation of Typhoon Goni continues to be well organized.  It has a small eye with a fairly continuous eyewall surrounding it.  There are multiple spiral bands and the strongest band is about 60 miles east of the center of circulation.  There is upper level divergence pumping out mass.  Goni is moving over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and the upper level winds are relatively light.  The environment is favorable for intensification and modest intensification is possible during the next day or so.

Goni is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering it toward the north-northeast.  That steering pattern is expected to continue for another two or three days.  On its anticipated track Goni will be near Ishigaki Jima in about 12 hours.  It could be just west of Okinawa in about 30 hours and it could be approaching Kyushu in about 48 hours.  Goni will bring strong winds and heavy rains to any places in its path.

Typhoon Goni Turning North, May Threaten Okinawa

Typhoon Goni is slowly turning toward the north and moving away from northern Luzon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Goni was located at latitude 19.8°N and longitude 122.5°E which put it about 330 miles (530 km) south-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan and about 615 miles (990 km) southwest of Okinawa.  Goni was moving toward the north at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Typhoon Goni will still be moving over warm Sea Surface Temperatures for the next several days and it has a chance to intensify.  The upper level winds are relatively light over the typhoon and there is not much vertical wind shear along its immediate path.  There appears to be an upper level outflow channel to the northeast.  Given the favorable environment Goni could intensify on Saturday.

Goni is moving around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system and it should begin to move toward the northeast a little more quickly.  On its anticipated track Goni could be near Ishigaki Jima in about 36 hours and near Okinawa in about 48 hours.  It could still be a strong typhoon at that time.  Goni could still by a typhoon when it approaches southwestern Kyushu in about three days.

Typhoon Goni Moving Closer to Northern Luzon and Taiwan

Typhoon Goni moved steadily westward on Wednesday and it got closer to northern Luzon and Taiwan.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Goni was located at latitude 18.9°N and longitude 125.3°E which put it about 350 miles (565 km) southeast of Taipei, Taiwan.  Goni was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 937 mb.

Typhoon Goni intensified on Wednesday and it is a very well organized tropical cyclone.  It has a large well formed eye.  The circulation is symmetrical although there are more thunderstorms in the south half of the typhoon.  Upper level divergence is well developed and it is pumping out mass in all directions.  Goni remains over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and the upper level winds are relatively light.  Some further intensification is possible during the next day or so.  Goni could run into stronger upper level winds in two or three days which would create more vertical wind shear and start to weaken the typhoon.

A subtropical ridge has been steering Goni toward the west and it is expected to do so again on Thursday.  However, Goni is nearing the western end of the ridge and it is forecast to turn to the north on Friday.  Goni appears to have moved more slowly during the past few hours, which may be an indication that it is reaching the western end of the ridge.  An upper level trough northwest of Goni is expected to turn Goni toward the northeast during the weekend and then accelerate it toward western Japan.

On its anticipated track, the center of Goni is expected to pass northeast of Luzon.  However, the circulation is large enough that some of northern Luzon could experience strong winds and heavy rain.  The center of Goni is forecast to pass east of Taiwan, but it could also bring strong winds heavy rain to some locations there as well.  The core of Goni could pass very near Ishigaki Jima and bring very strong winds and heavy rain to the islands in that area.

Typhoon Atsani Reaches Equivalent of Cat. 5 Hurricane

Typhoon Atsani intensified over the past 24 hours and it is now the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Atsani was located at latitude 19.6°N and longitude 151.3°E which put it about 1340 miles (2160 km) southeast of Tokyo, Japan.  Atsani was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (300 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 918 mb.

Atsani is in an environment that is very favorable for tropical cyclones.  The Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 28°C.  The upper level winds are very light and there is almost no vertical wind shear.  Upper level divergence is pumping out mass in all directions and Atsani has a very circular appearance with a large eye evident on satellite imagery.  There are more rainbands and thunderstorms in the southern half of the circulation which is probably the result of warmer, moister air in area.

Atsani could maintain its current intensity for another 24 hours or so, although an eyewall replacement cycle will cause weakening if one occurs.  In another day or two the typhoon will start to move over cooler SSTs.  In addition as Atsani moves northward, it will start to be affected by the upper level westerlies in the middle latitudes.  Those winds will increase wind shear and weaken Atsani further.

Atsani is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering it toward the northwest.  That general motion is expected to continue for another couple of days.  When Atsani reaches the western end of the ridge it will start moving toward the north.  Eventually, the upper level westerly winds will accelerate Atsani off to the northeast.  On its anticipated track Atsani would pass north of the Marianas and northeast of Iwo To.  At the current time the center of Atsani is forecast to pass about 100 miles east of ChiChi Jima.  However, a slight deviation of the track toward the west could bring Atsani closer to Chichi JIma and Iwo To.

 

Typhoon Goni Heading West

Typhoon Goni moved steadily westward away from the Mariana Islands on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Goni was located at latitude 18.3°N and longitude 135.3°E which put it about 780 miles (1260 km) southeast of Okinawa.  Goni was moving toward the west at 19 m.p.h. (31 km/).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 944 mb.

Goni appeared to go through an eyewall replacement cycle on Monday which resulted in a reduction in the maximum wind speed.  As the tiny pinhole inner eye weakened, the stronger winds were located in the larger outer eyewall.  The reduction in wind speed could be temporary, if the outer eye begins to contract.  Goni remains in a favorable environment.  It is moving over warm Sea Surface Temperature and the vertical wind shear is very modest.  The circulation is producing upper level divergence in all directions.  Goni will remain in a favorable environment for another two or three days and it should remain strong during that time period.

A subtropical ridge is steering Goni toward the west-northwest and that steering pattern is expect to continue for another 48 to 72 hours.  Later this week an upper level trough could approach the typhoon from the northwest.  Southwesterly winds on the eastern side of the trough could turn Goni toward the north later this week. On its anticipated track Goni could be near Taiwan, the northern Philippines or Okinawa when it makes that turn.

Typhoon Atsani Getting Bigger and Stronger

Typhoon Atsani continued to grow bigger and stronger on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Atsani was located at latitude 16.3°N and longitude 155.8°E which put it about 1700 miles (2740 km) southeast of Tokyo, Japan.  Atsani was moving west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 937 mb.

Typhoon Atsani has a very well organized circulation.  It is very symmetrical with a well formed eye and eyewall and it has multiple rainbands spiraling around the center of circulation.  Upper level divergence is pumping out mass in all directions, which is allowing the surface pressure to decrease.  There is little vertical wind shear and Atsani is moving over warm Sea Surface Temperatures.  Further intensification is likely, although eyewall replacement cycles could cause fluctuations in intensity.

A subtropical ridge is steering Atsani toward the northwest and that general steering pattern is expected to continue for the next few days.  On its anticipated track Atsani will pass north of the Marianas and it could be east of Iwo To in three or four days.

Goni Intensifies Rapidly Into a Strong Typhoon

Goni intensified rapidly from a tropical storm into a strong typhoon on Sunday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Goni was located at latitude 16.7°N and longitude 141.1°E which put it about 265 miles (425 km) west of Anatahan.  Goni was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h) which made Goni the equivalent of a major hurricane.  There were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and the minimum surface pressure was 937 mb.

The circulation of Goni organized quickly on Sunday and it was able to intensify rapidly.  The primary rainband wrapped tightly around the center of circulation and a tiny pinhole eye formed in the center.  The band continued to wrap about the core of the circulation and it could be about to form a second, larger concentric eyewall.  The structure of Goni looks a lot like the circulation of Typhoon Soudelor did when it intensified rapidly.  Light easterly winds in the upper levels enhanced divergence to the west of Goni and pumped out mass allowing the pressure to fall rapidly.

Goni is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are warm.  The vertical wind shear is minimal and further intensification is possible.  If concentric eyewalls form, eyewall replacement cycles could produce fluctuations in intensity.

A subtropical ridge is steering Goni toward the west-northwest and that general steering pattern is expected to continue for another three or four days.  At that time Goni could be near the western end of the subtropical ridge.  An upper level trough in the mid-latitude westerlies could approach the typhoon from the northwest and turn it toward the north.

Typhoon Soudelor Becomes Equivalent of a Category 5 Hurricane

Typhoon Soudelor continued to intensify rapidly on Monday and it reached the equivalent of a Category 5 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Soudelor was located at latitude 18.0°N and longitude 140.1°E which put it about 1020 miles (1640 km) east-southeast of Okinawa.  Soudelor was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 215 m.p.h. (350 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 907 mb.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Soudelor was 40.4, the Hurricane Size Index was 13.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index was 54.0.  These indices mean that Soudelor is capable of producing regional catastrophic damage.

The upper level winds around Soudelor are very light and there is almost no vertical wind shear.  The typhoon has strong upper level divergence in all directions which is pumping out mass and causing the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.  It is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C and the circulation is extracting plenty of energy from the upper ocean.  The environment would support further intensification, but Soudelor is already a very powerful typhoon.  Soudelor rapidly completed an eyewall replacement cycle earlier today and future cycles could produce fluctuations in intensity.  Soudelor could remain a very intense typhoon for several more days.

A strong subtropical ridge is steering Typhoon Soudelor toward the west-northwest and that general steering pattern is expected to continue for the next few days.  On its anticipated track Soudelor could be near the southernmost islands of Japan in three days, near northern Taiwan in four days and near the coast of China in less than five days.  Although it is likely to weaken before it reaches any of those locations, it could still be a powerful typhoon at that time.

Typhoon Soudelor Intensifies Rapidly and Moves Over Saipan

Typhoon Soudelor intensified rapidly during the 12 hours before it moved directly over Saipan.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Soudelor was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 145.3°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) west-northwest of Saipan.  It was moving toward the west-northwest at 11 m.p.h. (18 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.  The airport on Saipan measured sustained wind to 54 m.p.h. (87 km/h) and wind gusts to 91 m.p.h. (147 km/h).  However, there were several observations when no wind speed was reported.  The minimum surface pressure reported was 958 mb.

Typhoon Soudelor organized quickly after the primary band wrapped completely around the center of circulation.  A tiny (4 mile wide) pinhole eye developed at the center of circulation and there are multiple bands of thunderstorms rotating around the center.   Soudelor is over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and there is little vertical wind shear.  Further intensification is likely and Soudelor could reach Super Typhoon status.

A subtropical ridge is steering Soudelor toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for the next few days.  On its anticipated track Soudelor could approach the southernmost islands of Japan or Taiwan in four or five days.