Tag Archives: Japan

Typhoon Noul Expected to Head Toward Okinawa

Typhoon Noul is expected to pass east of Taiwan and move toward Okinawa on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Noul was located at latitude 21.2°N and longitude 122.4°E which put it about 260 miles south-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan, about 240 miles south-southwest of Ishigaki and about 550 miles southwest of Naha, Okinawa.  Noul was moving toward the north at 11 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 150 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 944 mb.

Noul will be moving over increasingly cooler Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) as it moves northeastward on Monday.  In addition, it will move into an area where stronger westerly winds are blowing in the upper levels of the atmosphere.  Cooler SSTs and increasing vertical wind shear will cause Noul to weaken steadily.  However, it could still be a typhoon when it passes near Okinawa.

Noul is moving around the western end of the subtropical ridge that has been steering it.  As it moves farther to the north, it will be steered by the mid-latitude westerly winds and Noul will accelerate toward the northeast.  Noul is like to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone when it passes south of Japan.

Typhoon Noul Equivalent of Category 5 Hurricane

Typhoon Noul moved into an area with very little vertical wind shear and intensified into the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday Typhoon Noul was located at latitude 17.4°N and longitude 123.1°E which put it about 130 miles east of Tuguegarao and about 85 miles southeast of Escarpada Point on the northeastern tip of Luzon.  Noul was moving toward the north-northwest at 12 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 195 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 918 mb.

Noul is at the western end of the subtropical ridge that has been steering it toward the northwest.  It should gradually turn more toward the north on Sunday.  The anticipated track will take the center of Noul very close to the northeastern tip of Luzon in a few hours.  As it moves northward, it will start to be affected by westerly winds in a day or so.  Those winds will turn it more toward the northeast and it could affect some of the southern islands of Japan early next week.

As Noul moves toward the north it will move over cooler Sea Surface Temperatures  (SSTs).  In addition the upper level westerly winds will create more vertical wind shear over Noul.  The combination of cooler SSTs and more vertical wind shear will cause Noul to weaken throughout the next few days.  However, if could still be a typhoon when it passes by Okinawa in about 48 hours.

Noul could bring strong winds and heavy rain to the northeastern tip of Luzon on Sunday.  Mudslides could be a possibility in locations that receive heavy rain.

 

Typhoon Noul Approaching the Philippines

Typhoon Noul continued to move steadily toward the west-northwest on Friday and it is approaching the northeastern Philippines.  At 3:00 pm. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Noul was located near latitude 13.9°N and longitude 127.0°E which put it about 300 miles east of Labo and about 480 miles east-southeast of Tuguegarao in the Philippines.  Noul was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 150 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 944 mb.  Noul is the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Noul is being steered to the west-northwest by a subtropical ridge located northeast of it.  As Noul nears the western end of the ridge, it is expected to begin to move more toward the northwest.  As Noul approaches the northeastern coast of Luzon, an upper level trough to the west is expected to turn it more toward the north.  The timing of the turn is still uncertain which makes the track forecast more difficult.  On its projected track Noul would approach northeastern Luzon in about 30 hours.

Noul is over Sea Surface Temperatures near 29°C and there is not much vertical wind shear.  However, there are fewer thunderstorms in the northwestern portion of the circulation and the could be some drier air in that region.  The environment is favorable for intensification but large changes in Noul’s intensity are not expected.  Noul is expected to be a significant typhoon when it approaches Luzon and it could bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to that region.  The heavy rain could lead to mudslides in areas where the slopes are steeper.

Nuri Intensifies Into a Super Typhoon

Typhoon Nuri intensified rapidly and it has now reached Super Typhoon status.  At 1:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Nuri was located at latitude 17.9°N and longitude 132.3°E which put it about 650 miles south-southeast of Okinawa.  Nuri was moving toward the north-northwest at 8 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was estimated to be 175 m.p.h. which made Nuri the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Nuri is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge.   It is anticipated that the upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes will begin to turn Nuri more toward the northeast over the next few days.  The guidance from numerical models suggest that Nuri will pass southeast of Japan during the middle of next week.

Nuri has been over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and in an area where the upper level winds are light.  It has well developed outflow and the energy from the ocean has allowed it to strengthen rapidly.  It is possible that Nuri become a little stronger during the next few hours.  Once Nuri moves farther north, the upper level westerly winds will increase the wind shear and inhibit outflow on the western side of the circulation.  Those factors will put Nuri on a weakening trend that will continue until it makes a transformation into an extratropical cyclone as it passes south of Japan.

Vongfong Intensifies Rapidly, Now a Super Typhoon

Typhoon Vongfong has been in an environment of warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and light upper level winds, which is almost ideal for intensification of a tropical cyclone.  As  result it has intensified very rapidly and it has reached the intensity necessary to be classified as a Super Typhoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT the center of Typhoon Vongfong was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 133.2°E which put it about 700 miles southeast of Okinawa.  Vongfong was moving toward the west-northwest at 11 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 175 m.p.h., which made it the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, and there were gusts to 215 m.p.h.  Vongfong is both stronger and larger than Typhoon Phanfone was.

Vongfong is being steered west-northwest by a subtropical high pressure system.  An upper level trough in the westerly flow at higher latitudes will approach Vongfong from the west.  Southerly winds on the east side of the trough will cause Vongfong to make a sharp turn toward the north during the next 24-36 hours.  It appears that Vongfong will continue to move northward during the rest of the week and it could approach southwestern Japan in five or six days.

Vongfong will remain in a very favorable environment for the next 24-48 hours and some further intensification is possible.  Eventually, the winds in the upper level trough will increase the wind shear over Vongfong.  At the same time Vongfong will be moving over cooler SSTs as it gets farther north.  So, a weakening trend could begin in about 48 hours.  However, Vongfong could still be a large typhoon as it approaches Japan.

 

Typhoon Phanfone Turns Northwards

Strong Typhoon Phanfone has reached the western edge of a subtropical high pressure system and it is making the expected turn toward the north.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Phanfone was located at latitude 24.0°N and longitude 134.0°E which put it about 870 miles south-southwest of Tokyo, Japan.  Phanfone was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 150 m.p.h.

Phanfone went through an eyewall replacement cycle on Thursday in which the small inner eye dissipated and a much larger eye became apparent on satellite imagery.  The eyewall replacement cycle kept the intensity of Phanfone relatively constant.  Now that the inner eye is gone, the outer eye is likely to contract.  Phanfone remains over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and it is a favorable atmospheric environment.  So, some further intensification is possible during the next 24 hours.  In 24 to 36 hours Phanfone will be far enough north to begin to be influenced by upper level westerly winds.  The stronger upper level winds will increase wind shear over Phanfone and start a weakening process.  A combination of stronger wind shear and colder air to the north of Phanfone will initiate a process whereby it is transformed from a tropical cyclone to an extratropical cyclone.  It is difficult to determine the exact timing of the extratropical transition and Phanfone will be a powerful extratropical cyclone as it moves across the North Pacific.

Phanfone should gradually turn more toward the north during the next 24 hours as it moves around the western edge of the subtropical high pressure system.  It is likely to take a sharper turn to the northeast later in the weekend when it encounters the upper level westerlies.  Phanfone is likely to approach southern Japan in 36 to 48 hours.  Some models are indicating that it could cross parts of Central Japan, while other models keep the center south of Japan.  In either case Phanfone has the potential to brig locally heavy rain and gusty winds to portions of Japan.

 

Typhoon Phanfone Intensifying Rapidly

A very favorable environment of warm Sea Surface Temperatures and light upper level winds is allowing Typhoon Phanfone to intensify rapidly.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Phanfone was located at latitude 19.5°N and longitude 139.0°E which put it about 400 miles south-southwest of Iwo To.  Phanfone was moving toward the west-northwest at 17 m.p.h.  It had maximum sustained winds of 120 m.p.h. and gusts to 150 m.p.h.

Phanfone is moving around the western end of the subtropical high pressure system and its track should take a more northward turn.  When Phanfone gets to a higher latitude, it will encounter the upper level westerly flow which will turn it northeastward.  Guidance from numerical models suggest that Phanfone could be south of Japan in about 72 hours.

Phanfone will be in a favorable environment during the next 36 hours and further intensification is possible.  When Phanfone encounters the upper level westerly flow, wind shear will increase and it will start to weaken.  Phanfone will eventually make a transition to an extratropical cyclone as it moves northeastward over the North Pacific.