Tag Archives: Queensland

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Debbie Makes Landfall in Queensland

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Debbie made landfall in Queensland on Monday night.  At 9:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Debbie was located at latitude 20.2°S and longitude 148.7°E which put it about 30 miles (50 km) east-southeast of Bowen, Australia.  Debbie was moving toward the southwest at 7 m.p.h. (12 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 943 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Debbie intensified rapidly on Monday into the equivalent of a major hurricane.  A symmetrical eye developed at the center of circulation and a ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye.  Bands of thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Debbie.  Winds to hurricane force extend out about 40 miles (65 km) from the center.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 140 miles (225 km) from the center.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Debbie was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 36.6.  These indices indicate that Tropical Cyclone Debbie was capable of causing regional major damage.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Debbie made landfall on the coast of Queensland between Bowen and Proserpine.  Debbie will bring strong gusty winds to the portions of Queensland in the path of the tropical cyclone.  Tropical Cyclone Debbie will cause a storm surge along the coast near and to the south of where the center makes landfall.  Debbie will also produce heavy rain as it moves inland and flooding could occur in some areas.

Tropical Cyclone Debbie will weaken after the center moves inland.  The core of Debbie will move across the Clarke Range and those mountains will speed the dissipation of the tropical cyclone.

Strengthening Tropical Cyclone Debbie Nears Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Debbie strengthened on Sunday as it moved nearer to the coast of Queensland.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Debbie was located at latitude 19.1°S and longitude 150.4°E which put it about 155 miles (250 km) east-northeast of Bowen, Australia.  Debbie was moving toward the south-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (7 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

The primary rainband finally wrapped entirely around the center of circulation of Tropical Cyclone Debbie on Sunday and an eye formed.  The eye has a diameter of 35 miles (55 km).  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounds the eye and the strongest winds are occurring in that eyewall.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the core of the circulation.  The circulation is symmetrical and well organized.  Thunderstorms around the core of the circulation are producing upper level divergence which is pumping out mass in all directions and the pressure is decreasing.

Tropical Cyclone Debbie will be moving through an environment favorable for intensification until it makes landfall in Australia.  Debbie will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The winds in the upper levels are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Debbie will intensify until it makes landfall.  Since an eye has formed, Tropical Cyclone Debbie could intensify rapidly on Monday.

Tropical Cyclone Debbie is moving around a ridge over Australia.  The ridge steered Debbie toward the south-southwest on Sunday.  Debbie is expected to start to moving more toward the west-southwest on Monday.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Debbie could reach the coast of Queensland within 24 hours.  The landfall will likely occur between Ayr and Mackay with the highest probability of a landfall near Bowen.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Debbie is 11.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 18.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 29.8.  Those indices will increase as Tropical Cyclone Debbie strengthens on Monday.  Tropical Cyclone Debbie will bring strong winds, storm surge and locally heavy rainfall to coastal regions of Queensland.

Tropical Cyclone Debbie Moves Toward Queensland and Strengthens

Tropical Cyclone Debbie moved toward Queensland and strengthened on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Debbie was located at latitude 18.2°S and longitude 151.2°E which put it about 295 miles (475 km) east-northeast of Townsville, Australia.  Debbie was moving toward the west-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (155 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Debbie continued to become better organized on Saturday.  A primary rainband wrapped around the southern and western sides of the center of circulation.  An eyewall appeared to be forming but there were breaks on the east side of the incipient eyewall.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  The thunderstorms were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass out in all directions.  The circulation is very symmetrical and winds to tropical storm force extend out about 190 miles (305 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Debbie will be moving through an environment that is very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Debbie will move moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Debbie will continue to intensify and it could intensify rapidly once a complete eyewall surrounds the center of circulation.  Tropical Cyclone Debbie will become the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Sunday and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane before it reaches the coast of Queensland.

Tropical Cyclone Debbie is moving around the eastern end of a ridge centered over northern Australia.  The ridge is steering Debbie toward the west-southwest and that general motion is expected to continue during the next several days.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Debbie could approach the coast of Queensland in 36 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Debbie could make landfall between Mackay and Rollingstone.  The greatest probability currently is for a landfall between Bowen and Townsville near Ayr.

Tropical Cyclone Debbie will bring destructive winds, storm surge and heavy rain to the coast of Queensland in about 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Debbie Develops East of Queensland

The low level circulation of a tropical low east of Queensland continued to organize on Friday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Debbie early on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Debbie was located at latitude 17.4°S and longitude 151.9°E which put it about 360 miles (580 km) east-northeast of Townsville, Australia.  Debbie was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (9 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

The low level circulation of Tropical Cyclone Debbie continued to consolidate around the center of circulation on Friday.  Numerous bands of thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation and an eye-like feature appeared on satellite imagery at various times.  The structure of the circulation was fairly symmetrical, although there were more bands of showers and thunderstorms in the eastern half of Debbie.  Thunderstorms near the core of the circulation were generating upper level divergence, which was pumping out mass in all directions.

Tropical Cyclone Debbie is moving through an environment that is very favorable for intensification.  Debbie is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are very weak and there is almost no vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Debbie should continue to intensify and it could intensify very rapidly once a well developed inner core forms around an eye.  Tropical Cyclone Debbie could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane in two or three days.

A subtropical ridge over northern Australia is steering Tropical Cyclone Debbie toward the southwest and a general southwesterly or west-southwesterly motion is expected to continue for the next two or three days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Debbie could approach the coast of Queensland near Townsville in about 72 hours.  Debbie could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it approaches the coast.

Tropical Low Forms Northeast of Queensland

A Tropical Low organized quickly northeast of Queensland over the Coral Sea on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 16.1°S and longitude 151.4°E which put it about 370 miles (600 km) northeast of Townsville, Australia.  The Tropical Low as moving toward the south at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

The low level circulation of the Tropical Low organized quickly on Thursday.  Numerous bands of showers and thunderstorms formed and they began to wrap around a center of circulation.  The distribution of showers and thunderstorms was relatively symmetrical, although there are a few more storms in the eastern half of the circulation.  Storms closer to the center started to generate upper level divergence.

The Tropical Low is in an environment that is very favorable for intensification.  The low is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are light and there is very little vertical wind shear.  The Tropical Low is likely to continue to organize quickly in the favorable environment and it will likely become a named tropical cyclone on Friday.  Once thunderstorms consolidate around the center of circulation, a period of rapid intensification may occur.

The Tropical Low is currently being steered to the south and that motion could continue for another 12 to 24 hours.  A strengthening subtropical ridge is forecast to turn the Tropical Low toward the west in about 24 hours.  On its anticipated track the Tropical Low could approach the coast of Queensland in about three days.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred Develops Over Southwest Gulf of Carpentaria

More thunderstorms developed around the center of a tropical low on Sunday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Alfred.  At 7:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 137.2°E which put it about 75 miles (120 km) northeast of Borroloola, Australia.  Alfred was moving toward the south-southeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

An area of low pressure organized over the southeastern Gulf of Carpentaria a few days ago.  The Tropical Low moved across the south coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria and then it moved westward over land.  The low turned north about 36 hours ago and it crossed into the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria on Sunday.  More thunderstorms developed closer to the center of circulation after the circulation moved over water.  Downdrafts in those storms transported stronger winds to the surface.  Upper level divergence pumped out mass and the surface pressure decreased.  When the low pressure system strengthened and acquired the necessary characteristics, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology classified it as Tropical Cyclone Alfred.

The low level circulation of Tropical Cyclone Alfred is well organized but the distribution of thunderstorms is very asymmetrical.  There is a well defined center of circulation that is over the extreme southwestern portion of the Gulf of Carpentaria.  However, most of the thunderstorms are developing southwest of the center of circulation.  Those thunderstorms are where the strongest winds are occurring.  There are few thunderstorms in the other portions of the core of the circulation.  There is one band of showers and thunderstorms farther away from the center on the eastern side of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will be moving through an environment that will be marginally favorable intensification.  It will be moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  So, there is plenty of energy to support intensification.  An upper level ridge east of Alfred is producing northerly winds which are blowing over the top of the tropical cyclone.  Those winds are generating moderate wind shear, which is partially responsible for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.  In addition, the center is close to the coast and some of the circulation is passing over land.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred could intensify a little more before it gets to coast, but a weakening trend may be more likely.

A subtropical ridge is steering Tropical Cyclone Alfred toward the south-southeast and that general motion is expected to continue for another 12 to 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Alfred could reach the coast near the border between the Northern Territory and Queensland in 12 to 18 hours.  Although Tropical Cyclone Alfred will bring some gusty winds, the greater hazard will be locally heavy rainfall.

Tropical Cyclone 16P Forms Over Gulf of Carpentaria

After a quiet period of several weeks in the tropics Tropical Cyclone 16P formed over the Gulf of Carpentaria on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 16P was located at latitude 16.4°S and longitude 140.3°E which put it about 75 miles (120 km) east-northeast of Mornington Island and about 115 miles (185 km) southwest of Kowanyama, Australia.  Tropical Cyclone 16P was moving toward the east-southeast at 12 m.p.h. (18 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

An upper level ridge persisted over the Gulf of Carpentaria during the past few days.  The upper level ridge generated upper level divergence which enhanced rising motion and supported the development of thunderstorms.  Eventually, the upper level divergence pumped out enough mass to allow the surface pressure to decrease and the thunderstorms began to consolidate around a low level center.  The system developed enough organization on Tuesday to be classified as a tropical cyclone.

The organization of Tropical Cyclone 16P improved on Tuesday.  Spiral bands of thunderstorms wrapped around a low level center.  Strong thunderstorms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence, especially to the east of the tropical cyclone.

The environment is favorable for intensification as long as the center of circulation remains over water.  The Sea Surface Temperatures are near 31°C in the southern Gulf of Carpentaria.  An upper level ridge to the east of the tropical cyclone is generating some vertical wind shear, but the ridge is also enhancing upper level divergence.  The primary inhibiting factor is the proximity of the center of circulation to land.  Tropical Cyclone 16P could intensify further during the next 12 hours before it makes landfall.

The upper level ridge is steering Tropical Cyclone 16P toward the southeast coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria.  On its anticipated track Tropical cyclone 16P is expected to make landfall in Queensland near the mouth of the Gilbert River in about 12 hours.  The potential track after landfall is much more uncertain.  Some guidance suggests that the tropical cyclone could move across the Cape York peninsula toward the Coral Sea.  Other guidance suggests that the tropical cyclone could turn back toward the northwest and move back out into the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Although Tropical Cyclone 16P is likely to cause minor wind damage, it could produce locally heavy rainfall and flooding when it moves over northeastern Queensland.

Tropical Low Forms Over Northern Australia

A distinct center of circulation consolidated within a broader area of low pressure near the northern coast of Australia.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as a Tropical Low.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 14.7°N and longitude 132.7°E which put it about 35 miles (55 km) east-southeast of Katherine, Australia and about 135 miles (220 km) west of Ngukurr.  The Tropical Low was moving toward the east at 3 m.p.h. (5 km).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (45 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

The atmospheric environment around the Tropical Low would be favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone.  The upper level winds are light and there is not much vertical wind shear.  An upper level anticyclone over the Tropical Low is providing a source of upper level divergence, which is pumping out mass.  However, the Tropical Low is over land which is preventing the development of a tropical cyclone.  As long as the Tropical Low remains over land, it will not develop into a tropical cyclone.  However, if the Tropical Low emerges over the Gulf of Carpentaria in a day or so, it could develop into a tropical cyclone.

A ridge in the middle levels of the atmosphere is steering the tropical low toward the east and that general motion is expected to continue for another 24 to 48 hours.  On its anticipated track the Tropical Low could emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria south of Port Roper in 24 to 36 hours.

Although the Tropical Low is moving over land, it will still draw in enough moisture to be capable of producing locally heavy rain.  Flooding may be possible in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Nathan Crossing Cape York Peninsula

Tropical Cyclone Nathan made landfall in Queensland and it is now crossing the Cape York Peninsula.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Nathan was located at latitude 14.4°N and longitude 142.2°E which put it about 75 miles west-southwest of Coen, about 80 miles north-northeast of Kowanyama and about 530 miles east-southeast of Alyangula, Australia.  Nathan was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 80 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Nathan has been weakening as it moves across the Cape York Peninsula in Northern Queensland.  However, it is approaching the Gulf of Carpentaria and the center of circulation will soon be back over water.  The circulation is still mostly intact and it has well developed upper level outflow.  The water at the surface of the Gulf of Carpentaria is very warm.  In addition, the upper level winds around Nathan are very light and there is very little vertical wind shear.  So, the environment around Nathan is quite favorable for intensification and it is possible that a period of rapid re-intensification could occur.

A subtropical ridge is expected to steer Nathan in a west-northwesterly direction during the next several days.  The projected track would have Nathan making another landfall in the Northern Territory between Port Roper and Nhulunbuy in 24 to 36 hours.  If Nathan does reintensify it could bring strong winds and a storm surge to the coast.  It will also be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and flooding in inland locations.

 

Tropical Cyclone Nathan Forms Over the Coral Sea

Another tropical cyclone formed in an elongated trough of low pressure over the southwestern Pacific Ocean.  At 10:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Nathan was located at latitude 13.8°S and longitude 146.8°E which put it about 150 miles northeast of Cooktown, Australia and about 250 miles south of Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea.  It was moving toward the west-southwest at 9 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

Nathan is over warm Sea Surface Temperatures, but it is being partly influenced by some of the upper level outflow from large Tropical Cyclone Pam which is located farther east.  The wind shear is reducing the rate of intensification, but the environment is favorable enough that continued intensification is likely during the next day or two.

The track forecast for Nathan has a high degree of uncertainty.  It is currently being steered to the west-southwest by a subtropical ridge that is north of the circulation center.  That ridge is predicted to weaken and westerly winds are expected to turn the tropical cyclone back toward the east.  However, the timing of that turn is important.  The center of Nathan could come very close to the coast of Queensland.  If the turn does not occur, Nathan could bring high winds and heavy rain to portions of northern Queensland.