Tropical Storm Choi-wan brought rain to the central Philippines on Tuesday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Choi-wan was located at latitude 13.1°N and longitude 121.9°E which put it about 155 miles (250 km) southeast of Manila, Philippines. Choi-wan was moving toward the west-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.
The center of Tropical Storm Choi-wan made an initial landfall on the east coast of Samar and then it moved west-northwest across the central Philippines. Choi-wan moved across the Sibuyan Sea and it was centered southeast of Manila on Tuesday night. The circulation around Tropical Storm Choi-wan weakened when the center passed over Samar, but it was still producing a small area of tropical storm force winds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Choi-wan.
Tropical Storm Choi-wan dropped locally heavy rain over parts of Samar, Masbate, Panay and Mindoro on Tuesday. An upper level ridge centered over southern China was producing northeasterly winds which were blowing toward the top of Choi-wan. Those winds were producing moderate vertical wind shear and they causing the heavier rain to fall in bands in the southern half of Tropical Storm Choi-wan. Bands in the northern half of the tropical storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.
Tropical Storm Choi-wan will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Choi-wan toward the north-northwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Choi-wan could pass just south of Manila in 12 hours. Choi-wan could drop locally heavy rain on Mindoro and western Luzon. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.
Tropical Storm Choi-wan will move through an environment that is mostly unfavorable for intensification. Choi-wan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. However, the upper level ridge center over southern China will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will limit the potential for intensification. The eastern side of the circulation around Tropical Storm Choi-wan will be over Luzon during the next 24 hours, which will also be unfavorable for intensification.
Typhoon Kammuri brought wind and rain to southern Luzon and Mindoro on Tuesday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Kammuri was located at latitude 13.4°N and longitude 114.9°E which put it about 115 miles (185 km) south-southwest of Manila, Philippines. Kammuri was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.
Typhoon Kammuri made landfall on the coast of southeastern Luzon near Sorsogon and Legaspi on Nonday. After making landfall, the eye of Kammuri passed over San Pascual on the northern end of Burias Island. The center of Kammuri moved across the Sibuyan Sea and the core of the typhoon passed over Marinduque Island and northern Mindoro. Rainbands in the northern half of Typhoon Kammuri produced strong winds and dropped heavy rain over southern Luzon. There were reports of widespread power outages. There were also reports of several deaths associated with the passage of Kammuri.
Typhoon Kammuri weakened slowly as the circulation passed over land. Increased friction caused the wind speed to gradually decrease and mountains disrupted portions of the circulation. The eastern side of the eyewall weakened and the eye was no longer apparent on infrared satellite images. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands west and north of the center of circulation. Bands southeast of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400 km) from the center.
Conditions will improve over southern Luzon and Mindoro as Typhoon Kammuri moves farther away. Kammuri could maintain its intensity over even strengthen slightly during the next 24 hours as it moves over the warm water in the South China Sea. Typhoon Kammuri will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. Kammuri will reach the eastern end of a surface high pressure system over eastern Asia in about 24 hours. Strong northeasterly winds will blow around the eastern end of the high and those winds will create strong vertical wind shear as they blow under southwesterly winds in the upper levels. The strong wind shear is likely to cause Typhoon Kammuri to weaken quickly in about a day or so.
A ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean will steer Typhoon Kammuri toward the west for about another 24 hours. On its anticipated track Kammuri will move farther away from the Philippines. When Typhoon Kammuri reaches the area of more vertical wind shear and the typhoon weakens, it will be steered by winds closer to the surface. The strong northeasterly winds in that part of the atmosphere will steer Kammuri toward the south-southwest later this week.
Major Typhoon Kammuri made landfall on southeastern Luzon near Sorsogon and Legaspi on Monday. At noon EST on Monday the center of Typhoon Kammuri was located at latitude 13.2°N and longitude 123.6°E which put it about 10 miles (15 km) west of Legaspi, Philippines and about 230 miles (370 km) east-southeast of Manila. Kamuri was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 950 mb.
Typhoon Kammuri rapidly intensified into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the 12 hours prior to landfall on Monday. A large eye with a diameter to 50 miles (80 km) developed at the center of Kammuri. A thick ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the typhoon. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the typhoon in all directions. The removal of large amounts of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease more quickly.
Typhoon Kammuri also grew larger as it got stronger. Winds to typhoon force extended out about 50 miles (80 km) in most portions of Kammuri, but those strong winds extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the northwestern part of the circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) in most parts of the circulation, but they extended out 300 miles (480 km) to the northwest of the center of Kammuri. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Kammuri was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 25.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 50.5. Typhoon Kammuri was capable of causing widespread major damage to southern Luzon.
Typhoon Kammuri will move south of a ridge of high pressure over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will steer Kammuri toward the west-northwest during the next 36 to 48 hours. On its anticipated track Typhoon Kammuri will move across southeastern Luzon and over the Sibuyan Sea during the next few hours. The center of Kammuri is forecast to pass south of Manila in 18 to 24 hours.
Typhoon Kammuri will weaken slowly as it moves across southeastern Luzon. Kammuri will bring strong winds and heavy rain to southern Luzon. Typhoon Kammuri will also have a big impact on Burias, Marinduque Island and Mindoro. Kammuri could produce winds to near typhoon force around Manila. Typhoon Kammuri is likely to cause major damage around Legaspi. Locally heavy rain could produce flash floods in numerous locations. Kammuri could cause serious damage around Manila.