Tag Archives: California

Eugene Becomes a Hurricane Southwest of Baja California

Tropical Storm Eugene strengthened rapidly into a hurricane on Saturday as it moved southwest of Baja California.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Eugene was located at latitude 14.4°N and longitude 113.5°W which put it about 630 miles (1020 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Eugene was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (155 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

A primary raindband wrapped around the center of Hurricane Eugene on Saturday and an eye formed at the center of circulation.  The eye had a diameter of 30 miles (50 km).  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Thunderstorms were generating well developed upper level divergence which was pumping mass away in all directions.  The circulation of Hurricane Eugene was symmetrical and well organized.

Hurricane Eugene was moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) was near 29°C.  Eugene was underneath the western end of an upper level ridge.  The ridge was producing southerly winds which were blowing toward the top of the hurricane, but the vertical wind shear was not very strong.  Eugene is likely to intensify on Sunday.  It will gradually move over cooler SSTs and Hurricane Eugene will move over water where the water is cooler than 26°C on Monday.  When Eugene reaches the cooler SSTs, it will begin a steady weakening trend.

Hurricane Eugene is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering it toward the northwest.  Eugene is expected to continue to move toward the northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Eugene will move parallel to the west coast of Baja California.

Tropical Storm Eugene Forms South of Baja California

A distinct center of circulation consolidated within a broader area of low pressure south of Baja California on Friday and the National Hurricane Center classified the system as Tropical Storm Eugene.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Eugene was located at latitude 11.9°N and longitude 111.2°W which put it about 765 miles (1230 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Eugene was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Eugene is large and there are numerous bands of showers and thunderstorms rotating around the center of circulation.  A primary rainband is wrapping around the southern and eastern sides of the center and the strongest winds are occurring northeast of the center of circulation.  The circulation is circular and symmetrical.  Thunderstorms around the core of Eugene are beginning to generate upper level divergence which is pumping out mass in all directions.

Tropical Storm Eugene will move through an environment that is favorable for intensification.  Eugene will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level winds over Tropical Storm Eugene are relatively weak and there is not a lot of vertical wind shear.  The circulation of Tropical Storm Eugene will continue to consolidate and it is likely to intensify during the weekend.  It is likely to become a hurricane and it could intensify rapidly if an eye forms.

Tropical Storm Eugene is moving near the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering it toward the northwest.  A generally northwesterly motion is expected to continue during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Eugene would move parallel to the west coast of Baja California and the center would remain west of the coast.

Seymour Strengthens Into a Cat. 4 Hurricane

Hurricane Seymour strengthened into a small but very powerful Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Seymour was located at latitude 16.1°N and longitude 117.7°W which put it about 690 miles (1110 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.   Seymour was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 943 mb.

The circulation of Hurricane Seymour is very small, but it is very well organized.  There is a circular eye with a diameter of 10 miles (12 km) which is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  Winds to hurricane force only extend out about 18 miles (29 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 80 miles (130 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) is 31.6, but the Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is only 7.1.  The Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index is 38.7.  Hurricane Seymour is not as strong as Hurricane Patricia was in 2015 and Seymour is smaller than Patricia was.  When Hurricane Patricia had maximum sustained winds of 200 m.p.h. (320 km) its HSI ranged between 11.3 and 13.8.

Hurricane Seymour will remain in a very favorable environment for another 6 to 12 hours.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 28°C.  The upper level winds will be light and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Later on Wednesday the upper level winds will increase and Hurricane Seymour will begin to move over cooler SSTs.  The increasingly unfavorable environment will cause Seymour to weaken.  Because of the small size of Seymour’s circulation, wind shear could cause the hurricane to weaken quickly.

Hurricane Seymour is moving around the western end of a ridge that is steering the hurricane toward the west-northwest.  When Seymour reaches the western end of the ridge, the hurricane will begin to move more toward the north.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Seymour will weaken well to the west of Baja California.  An upper level trough moving over the Northern Pacific Ocean could eventually transport some of the moisture from Hurricane Seymour over the western U.S.

Seymour Rapidly Intensifies into a Cat. 2 Hurricane

Tropical Storm Seymour rapidly intensified into a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Monday as it moved farther away from Mexico.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Seymour was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 112.6°W which put it about 540 miles (870 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Seymour was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

Hurricane Seymour intensified very rapidly on Monday.  The maximum sustained wind speed increased from 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) in a 24 hour period.  The circulation contracted and the primary rainband wrapped tightly around a small eye.  Seymour is a very small hurricane and hurricane force winds only extend out about 12 miles (19 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extend out about 70 miles (130 km) from the center.  Although Seymour is a small hurricane, the circulation is well organized.  The small eye is surrounded by an almost continuous ring of thunderstorms.  Several other spiral bands are rotating around the core of Hurricane Seymour.  Thunderstorms in the core are generating upper level divergence which is pumping out mass in all directions.

Hurricane Seymour will remain in a favorable environment on Tuesday.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are light and there is little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Seymour is likely to intensify on Tuesday and it could become a major hurricane.  When Seymour moves farther to the west, it will be nearer to an upper level trough which will produce southwesterly winds over the hurricane.  Increased vertical wind shear will begin to weaken Hurricane Seymour.

A ridge over Mexico is steering Hurricane Seymour toward the west and that general motion will occur for another 24 to 36 hours.  Hurricane Seymour will approach the western end of the ridge on Wednesday, and the hurricane will turn more toward the north when that happens.  On its anticipated track this turn will occur well to the west of Baja California.

Tropical Storm Seymour Develops Quickly West of Mexico

Tropical Storm Seymour developed quickly west of Mexico on Sunday and it brought to an end a stretch of three quiet weeks over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Seymour was located at latitude 14.4°N and longitude 107.1°W which put it about 370 miles (590 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Seymour was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

The circulation in a cluster of thunderstorms organized quickly on Sunday afternoon.  A primary rainband around the northern and western sides of the circulation wrapped almost entirely around the center and an eye appeared to be forming on microwave satellite images.  Additional bands of thunderstorms were developing.  Thunderstorms in the core of Seymour were beginning to generate upper level divergence.

Tropical Storm Seymour will be moving through a very favorable environment.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  The upper level winds are relatively weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Seymour will continue to intensify and it could intensify rapidly.  Seymour will become a hurricane and it could become a major hurricane.

A ridge over Mexico is steering Tropical Storm Seymour toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  When Seymour reaches the western end of the ridge, it will turn toward the north.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Seymour will make the northward turn well to the southwest of Baja California.

Hurricane Paine Prompts Warnings for Part of Baja California

Tropical Storm Paine intensified into a hurricane on Monday and the government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the west coast of Baja California.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Paine was located at latitude 23.4°N and longitude 116.5°W which put it about 315 miles (510 km) south-southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico.  Paine was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

There is a Tropical Storm Warning in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Quintin.

The circulation of Hurricane Paine is showing signs of weakening.  It had a well formed eye surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms a few hours ago.  The eye is no longer apparent on infrared satellite imagery.  There are still thunderstorms near the center of circulation.  The circulation appears to be pulling cooler, drier and more stable air around the southwestern quadrant of Hurricane Paine.  More thunderstorms are occurring in rainbands in the northwestern quadrant of the circulation.  There are few thunderstorms in the rainbands in the eastern half of Hurricane Paine.

Hurricane Paine will be moving into an environment that will be very unfavorable for a tropical cyclone.  The center is currently moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 24°C.  It will move over water where the SST will be less than 22°C on Tuesday.  Less energy in the upper ocean and cooler, more stable air will cause the circulation to weaken and it could weaken quickly.  An upper level low southwest of California will generate some vertical wind shear which could separate the upper part of Hurricane Paine from the lower level circulation as Paine weakens.

Hurricane Paine is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge over Mexico which is steering Paine toward the north.  On its anticipated track the center of Paine will pass west of Punta Eugenia on Tuesday.  The center or the upper part of the circulation could be near Cabo San Quintin on Wednesday morning.  It is expected to weaken to a tropical depression or a remnant low before it reaches Cabo San Quintin.  However, Paine could bring tropical storm force winds to a portion of the coast, which is why the Tropical Storm Warning was issued.

Tropical Storm Paine Intensifying Quickly Southwest of Baja California

The Eastern North Pacific Ocean continues to spin out tropical cyclones.  Tropical Storm Paine intensified quickly on Sunday as it moved southwest of Baja California.  In 24 hours Paine intensified from a tropical depression to near hurricane strength.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Paine was located at latitude 19.5°N and longitude 113.8°W which put it about 345 miles (555 km/h) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Paine was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Tropical Storm Paine moved through a very favorable environment on Sunday.  The Sea Surface Temperature (SST) was near 28°C.  The upper level winds were light and there was little vertical wind shear.  The favorable environmental conditions allowed a tight inner core to develop rapidly at the center of Tropical Storm Paine.  Infrared and microwave satellite imagery suggest that an eye could be forming at the center of Paine.  A nearly complete ring of strong thunderstorms surrounds the developing eye.  A primary rainband exists in the eastern part of the circulation.  Thunderstorms at the core of Tropical Storm Paine are generating upper level divergence which is pumping out mass in all directions.

Tropical Storm Paine will be in a favorable environment for another 12 to 18 hours.  It is likely to intensify into a hurricane on Monday.  After that time Paine will start to move over cooler SSTs and it should start to weaken.  The air over the cooler SSTs is also drier and more stable and Paine could weaken quickly on Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Paine is moving around the western end of a ridge over Mexico which is steering it toward the northwest.  When Paine reaches the western end of the ridge axis, it will move more toward the north.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Paine will pass to the west of the southern end of Baja California during the next several days.

Tropical Storm Orlene Develops Rapidly West of Mexico

Tropical Storm Orlene developed rapidly southwest of Baja California on Sunday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Orlene was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 118.3°W which put it about 700 miles (1125 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Orlene was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

Tropical Storm Orlene organized quickly on Sunday.  A primary rainband wrapped around the center of circulation and an eye appears to be forming.  Additional spiral bands are rotating around the core of Orlene.  Thunderstorms in the core of Tropical Storm Orlene are generating upper level divergence which is pumping out mass in all directions.  The circulation of Orlene is symmetrical and well formed.

Tropical Storm Orlene is moving through a very favorable environment.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Orlene will continue to intensify on Monday and it could intensify rapidly for another 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Orlene is moving northwest toward a weakness in the subtropical high and that general motion is expected to continue for another day or two.  Eventually, the subtropical ridge is expected to strengthen and turn Tropical Storm Orlene toward the west.

Hurricane Newton Brings Wind and Heavy Rain to Baja California

Hurricane Newton is bringing wind and heavy rain as it moves over southern Baja California.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Newton was located at latitude 24.7°N and longitude 111.4°W which put it about 75 miles (120 km) west-northwest of La Paz, Mexico.  Newton was moving toward the northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

There are Hurricane Warnings in effect for the portions of the coast from Cabo San Lazaro to Todos Santos, from Los Barriles to Mulege and from Guaymas to Bahia Kino.  Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the portions of the coast from Cabo San Lazaro to Punta Abreojos, from Mulege to Bahia San Juan Bautista, from Bahia Tempehuaya to Guaymas and from Bahia Kino to Puerto Libertad.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast form Bahia Kino to Puerto Libertad.

Hurricane Newton made landfall on the southern tip of Baja California on Tuesday morning.  It moved along the western coast of the peninsula and the center passed to the west of La Paz, Mexico.  Newton is now moving north across Baja California near Ciudad Constitucion.  Newton is generating winds to hurricane force.  Areas of heavier rain are occurring near La Paz and Mulege.  Very heavy rain is falling where the wind is pushing air up the slopes of mountains and there is a substantial risk of flash flooding in those areas.

The structure of Hurricane Newton is beginning to deteriorate as it interacts with the mountains on Baja California.  The circulation is starting to tilt toward the north as the low level circulation is partially blocked by west coast of Baja while the middle and upper portions of the circulation continue to move north.  The strongest thunderstorms are occurring south of the center of circulation.  Additional strong thunderstorms are occurring rain bands north of the center over the Gulf of California.

Hurricane Newton will weaken as long as the center of circulation is moving over the mountains in southern Baja California.  It is possible that the middle and upper parts of the circulation could temporarily become detached from the existing low level center.  A new low level center could form under the middle and upper parts of the circulation when they emerge over the Gulf of California.  The Sea Surface Temperature in the Gulf of California is 32°C, but Newton will only be over the water for a few hours.  So, the potential for significant re-intensification is slight.

Hurricane Newton is moving around the western end of a ridge of high pressure.  The ridge is steering Newton toward the north.  That general motion is expected to continue for the next few hours and then Hurricane Newton could turn more toward the north-northeast.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Newton will emerge over the Gulf of California near Loreto in about 12 hours.  Newton will make a landfall on the west coast of Mexico in about 18 hours.

Hurricane Newton will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain to the southern part of Baja California for the rest of Tuesday.  It will also produce heavy rain over portions of western Mexico on Wednesday.  Flash flooding will continue to be a risk in areas of steep terrain.  The remnants of Hurricane Newton could transport moist air over southeastern Arizona and western New Mexico.

Rapidly Intensifying Hurricane Newton Threatens Baja California

Hurricane Newton intensified rapidly from a tropical depression on Monday into a powerful hurricane that threatens Baja California.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Newton was located at latitude 21.3°N and longitude 109.0°W which put it about 125 miles (200 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Newton was moving toward the northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (150 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Lazaro to Mulege including Cabo San Lucas.  A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the portions of the coast from Cabo San Lazaro to Punta Abreojos, from Mulege to Bahia San Juan Bautista and from Mazatlan to Puerto Libertad.  A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the portion of the coast from Guaymas to Puerto Libertad.

The circulation of Hurricane Newton organized very rapidly on Monday.  A primary rainband wrapped most of the way around an eye.  Multiple bands of thunderstorms developed outside the eyewall.  Thunderstorms near the core of Hurricane Newton generated strong upper level divergence which pumped out mass and allowed the winds speeds to increased rapidly.  Newton intensified from a tropical depression into a hurricane in 24 hours.  The maximum sustained wind speed has increased from 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) 24 hours ago to 90 m.p.h. (150 km/h).

Hurricane Newton is in an environment that could allow it to strengthen until it reaches the southern tip of Baja California.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is 29°C.  The upper level winds are light and there is little vertical wind shear.  When Hurricane Newton reaches Baja California, it will weaken as it crossed over the mountains.  However, it could still be a hurricane when it reaches the warm water in the Gulf of California.

Hurricane Newton is moving around the western end of a mid-level ridge.  The ridge should steer it toward the north-northwest for another 12 hours.  When Newton reaches the end of the ridge, it will turn toward the north-northeast.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Newton will reach the southern portion of Baja California in less than 12 hours.  Newton could emerge over the Gulf of California in about 24 hours.  Newton could still be a hurricane when it reaches the western coast of Mexico near Guaymas on Wednesday.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Newton is 13.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 12.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index is 26.1.  Given that Hurricane Newton is likely to intensify until it makes landfall in Baja California, it has the potential to cause regional serious wind damage.  Heavy rain and flash flooding will pose an even greater threat in areas of steep terrain.  Newton has the potential to be a destructive hurricane.