Tag Archives: Puerto Rico

Tropical Storm Laura Develops, Warnings for Puerto Rico and Leeward Islands

Tropical Storm Laura developed east of the northern Leeward Islands on Friday morning.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located at latitude 17.0°N and longitude 60.2°W which put it about 210 miles (335 km) east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands.  Laura was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, the British Virgin Islands, the U. S, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra.

Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the portion of the north coast of Hispaniola from Le Mole St. Nicholas, Haiti to Cabron, Dominican Republic and for the Turks and Caicos, the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, and the Ragged Islands.

A NOAA plane found winds to tropical storm force in former Tropical Depression Thirteen on Friday morning and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Laura.  Even though the plane found winds to tropical storm force, the circulation around Tropical Storm Laura was not well organized. There were several clusters of thunderstorms in the northern half of the circulation, but there were fewer thunderstorms in the southern half of Laura.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 150 miles (240 km) on the northern side of the tropical storm.  The winds in the southern half of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Laura will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Laura will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  The lack of organization of the circulation around Laura will limit how quickly the tropical storm can intensify.  Tropical Storm Laura is likely to get stronger during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Laura will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the North Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Laura toward the west-northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Laura will move across the northern Leeward Islands later today.  Laura could reach Puerto Rico by Saturday.  Tropical Storm Laura will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the islands when it passes over them.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Fourteen was getting more organized over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 84.1°W which put it about 325 miles (525 km) southeast of Cozumel, Mexico.  The depression was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Herrero to Cancun, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Bay Islands, Honduras and from Punta Herrero to Cancun, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cancun to Dzilam, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Isaias Drops Heavy Rain on Puerto Rico

Tropical Storm Isaias dropped heavy rain on Puerto Rico on Thursday.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 68.5°w which put it about 105 miles (165 km) east- southeast of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.  The center was about 80 miles (130 km) south of Cabo Engano.  Isaias was moving toward the northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, the U.S. Virgin Islands, the British Virgin Islands,  the entire coast of the Dominican Republic, Le Mole St. Nicholas, Haiti to the northern border with the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, the Ragged Islands, Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay and San Salvador.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Andros Island, New Providence, Eleuthera, the Abacos, the Berry Islands, Grand Bahama Island and Bimini.

Bands on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Isaias were dropping heavy rain over parts of Puerto Rico on Thursday morning.  Flash Flood Warnings were in effect for parts of the island.  Isaias was also causing winds to tropical storm force in parts in Puerto Rico.  A station at Yabucoa Tanque de Agua reported a sustained wind speed of 46 m.p.h. (74 km/h) and a wind gust to 56 m.p.h. (91 km/h).  A station at Las Mareas reported a sustained wind speed of 3 m.p.h. (69 km/h) and a wind gust of 54 m.p.h. (87 km/h).

The circulation around Tropical Storm Isaias exhibited much more organization on Thursday morning, although the mid-level center did appear to be displaced to the north of the low level center.  There was a center of circulation but the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical.  Most of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Isaias.  Storms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.  Bands in the western half of Isaias consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Northerly winds on that side of the circulation were sinking over the southern part  of Hispaniola and that could have been suppressing the development of thunderstorms in that region.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Isaias was very still very large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 415 miles (665 km) on the northern side of Isaias.

Tropical Storm Isaias could weaken when the low level center of circulation moves across the eastern part of the Dominican Republic.  The low level circulation will be disrupted by the terrain but it looks like Isaias will pass east of the tallest mountains on Hispaniola.  The mid-level center of Tropical Storm Isaias appears to be passing very close to the eastern end of Hispaniola.  The middle and upper portions of the circulation are likely to remain intact and a new low level circulation could form north of Hispaniola.  Tropical Storm Isaias will move through an environment favorable for intensification once it moves past Hispaniola.  Isaias will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Isaias is likely to intensify when it moves north of Hispaniola and it could intensify rapidly once a new low level center of circulation develops.

Tropical Storm Isaias will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the North Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Isaias toward the northwest during the next 48 hours.  it will turn the tropical storm more toward the north on the weekend when Isaias reaches the western end of the high pressure system.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Isaias will move across the eastern part of the Dominican Republic today.  Isaias will move over the Bahamas on Friday and it could approach southeast Florida on Saturday.  Tropical Storm Isaias will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and the Bahamas.  Flash floods could occur.

Tropical Storm Isaias Develops South of Puerto Rico

Tropical Storm Isaias developed south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located at latitude 15.8°N and longitude 67.0°W which put it about 155 miles (250 km) south of Ponce, Puerto Rico.  Isaias was moving toward the west-northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, the U.S. Virgin Islands, the British Virgin Islands, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, the entire coast of the Dominican Republic, Le Mole St. Nicholas, Haiti to the northern border with the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, the Ragged Islands, Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay and San Salvador.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Andros Island, New Providence, Eleuthera, the Abacos, the Berry Islands, Grand Bahama Island and Bimini.

Data from a scatterometer onboard a satellite and observations from a buoy south of Puerto Rico indicated that a distinct center of circulation formed within a large low pressure system over the northeastern Caribbean Sea and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Isaias.  The center of circulation formed about 150 miles (240 km) south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday night.  More thunderstorms were developing near the newly formed center.  Many of those thunderstorms were southeast of the center.  Storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were also located on the northern periphery  of the circulation and the strongest winds were occurring in those bands.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 300 miles (485 km) to the northeast of the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force also extended out 130 miles (215 km) to the northwest of the center.  The winds south of the center of Isaias were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Isaias will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Isaias will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Isaias will get better organized and strengthen during the first half of Thursday.  A portion of the circulation around Isaias will move over Hispaniola later on Thursday.  Mountains on that island will disrupt the circulation and Tropical Storm Isaias will weaken while the center moves over land.

Tropical Storm Isaias will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the North Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Isaias toward the west-northwest on Thursday.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Isaias will move across Hispaniola on Thursday.  Isaias will cause gusty winds and it will drop locally heavy rain when it moves over Hispaniola.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods.

Potential Tropical Storm Prompts Warnings for Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, Leeward Islands

A low pressure system that has the potential to organize into a tropical storm prompted the issuance of Tropical Storm Warnings for Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and many of the Leeward Islands on Tuesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 53.7°W which put it about 585 miles (940 km) east-southeast of the Leeward Islands.  It was moving toward the west at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were issued for Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Antigua, Barbuda, the British Virgin Islands, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Martin, Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten.

The circulation around Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine was very broad and it stretched from the southwest toward the northeast.  The stronger thunderstorms were occurring in the southwestern and northeastern ends of the circulation.  There were few thunderstorms or bands in the broad middle of the low pressure system.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) on the northern side of the circulation.  The winds in the southern half of the low pressure system were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next two days.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  The large broad circulation will contribute to a slow, gradual intensification.  If thunderstorms consolidate around a center of circulation and an inner core begins to form, then the system may be designated as a tropical storm.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the North Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer the potential tropical storm toward the west-northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine could approach the Leeward Islands on Wednesday morning.  It could approach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Wednesday night.  The large circulation means that Potential Tropical Nine will bring a prolonged period of gusty winds.  It could also drop heavy rain and cause flash floods on some islands.

Lorenzo Rapidly Strengthens Into a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Lorenzo rapidly strengthened into a major hurricane west of the Cabo Verde Islands on Thursday.  At 6:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located at latitude 15.2°N and longitude 39.3°W which put it about 995 miles (1600 km) west of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Lorenzo was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

Lorenzo was a large well organized a hurricane.  There was a circular eye at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Lorenzo.  Storms around the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 210 miles (335 km) from the center.

Hurricane Lorenzo will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next day or so.  Lorenzo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Lorenzo is likely to strengthen to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale during the next 24 hours.  Lorenzo will move over cooler water during the weekend, which will cause the hurricane to weaken.

Hurricane Lorenzo will move around the western end of a ridge of high pressure over North Africa and the eastern Atlantic Ocean.  The ridge will steer Lorenzo toward the north during the weekend.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Lorenzo could approach the Azores next week.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean Tropical Storm Karen moved farther away from Puerto Rico.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT in Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located at latitude 25.5°N and longitude 63.5°W which put it about 520 miles (835 km) north-northeast of San Juan Puerto Rico.  Karen was moving toward the north-northeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Storm Karen Drops Heavy Rain on Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands

Tropical Storm Karen dropped heavy rain on parts of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located at latitude 17.5°N and longitude 66.0°W which put it about 65 miles (105 km) south of San Juan Puerto Rico.  Karen was moving toward the north at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Puerto Rico including Vieques and Culebra, the U.S. Virgin Islands and the British Virgin Islands.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Karen exhibited more organization on Tuesday afternoon.  A new low level center of circulation formed a little farther to the west near a cluster of stronger thunderstorms.  The minimum surface pressure decreased by several millibars.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of circulation and in bands revolving around the center.  Storms near the newly reformed center of circulation were generating more upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass was what allowed the surface pressure to decrease.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Karen will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 48 hours.  Karen will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  Karen has moved under the middle of an upper level ridge over the eastern Caribbean Sea where the upper level winds are weaker.  There will be less vertical wind shear during the next day or two.  The environment around Tropical Storm Karen will support intensification.  However, the center of Karen will pass over Puerto Rico during the next 24 hours.  The mountains in Puerto Rico will disrupt the circulation in the lower levels and Tropical Storm Karen will weaken when it passes over those mountains.  Karen will likely strengthen again when it moves north of Puerto Rico.

Tropical Storm Karen will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Karen toward the north during the next day or two.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Karen will move across Puerto Rico during the next 24 hours.  Karen will drop heavy rain on parts of Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands and the British Virgin Islands.  Prolonged heavy rain will create a high risk for flash floods in those areas.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Jerry was moving slowly toward Bermuda and Tropical Storm Lorenzo was strengthening west of the Cabo Verde Islands.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located at latitude 30.9°N and longitude 69.1°W which put it about 270 miles (435 km) west-southwest of Bermuda.  Jerry was moving toward the north-northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Bermuda.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was located at latitude 12.4°N and longitude 29.3°W which put it about 270 miles (435 km) west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Lorenzo was moving toward the west-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb

Tropical Storm Karen Develops Near Windward Islands

Tropical Storm Karen developed near the Windward Islands on Sunday morning.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located at latitude 11.9°N and longitude 60.9°W which put it about 55 miles (90 km) east-southeast of Grenada.  Karen was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Trinidad and Tobago, Grenada, and for St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

A center of circulation developed in an area of thunderstorms east of the axis of a strong tropical wave near the Windward Islands on Sunday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Karen.  The strongest thunderstorms were forming in bands south and west of the center of circulation.  Bands north and west of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.   Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 125 miles (200 km) on the eastern side of the tropical storm.

An upper level trough northeast of the Lesser Antilles was producing strong westerly winds which were blowing across the northern side of Tropical Storm Karen.  An upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea was producing strong northeasterly winds which were blowing across the western part of Karen.  The upper level winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear which was inhibiting the development of thunderstorms in those parts of Tropical Storm Karen.  The center of circulation developed in a region between the stronger upper level westerly and northeasterly winds.  Most of the thunderstorms were forming in that area where the upper level winds were not as strong.

Tropical Storm Karen will move through an environment that will be only marginally favorable for intensification during the next day or two.  Karen will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature  is near 29°C.  However, the upper level trough and upper level ridge will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  If Tropical Storm Karen remains in the zone where the upper level winds are not as strong, it could strengthen.  However, if Karen moves under stronger upper level winds, it could weaken to a depression.  Tropical Storm Karen is forecast to move closer to the center of the upper level ridge in two or three days.  If that happens, then the upper level winds will be weaker and Karen could intensify.

Tropical Storm Karen will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Karen toward the west-northwest during the next 12 hours.  Karen will move more toward the north when reaches the end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Karen will move across the Windward Islands on Sunday.  Karen will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain.  Flash floods are likely.  Tropical Storm Karen could approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday.  Tropical Storm Watches are likely to be issued for those islands.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean Tropical Storm Jerry was spinning south of Bermuda.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located at latitude 25.0°N and longitude 66.9°W which put it about 520 miles (835 km) south-southwest of Bermuda.  Jerry was moving toward the north-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Strong Tropical Wave Brings Wind and Rain to Windward Islands

A strong tropical wave was bringing wind and rain to the Windward Islands.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of the tropical wave was located at latitude 11.9°N and longitude 59.5°W which put it about 75 miles (120 km) northeast of Tobago.  The wave was moving toward the west at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

The axis of the tropical wave stretched from near Barbados to just east of Trinidad and Tobago.  More thunderstorms developed near the axis of the wave on Saturday night and there were indications that a center of circulation could be forming northeast of Trinidad and Tobago.  There were winds to near tropical storm force.  The National Hurricane Center issued a special Tropical Weather Outlook on Saturday night and indicated that tropical storm watches and warnings might need to be issued on Sunday.  The wave is forecast to move over the Windward Islands and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Sunday.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Jerry was located north of Puerto Rico.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was location at latitude 24.1°N and longitude 66.3°W which put it about 575 miles (925 km) south of Bermuda.  Jerry was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Hurricane Jerry Passing North of Leeward Islands

Hurricane Jerry was passing north of the Leeward Islands on Friday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Jerry was located at latitude 19.6°N and longitude 62.0°W which put it about 120 miles (195 km) northeast of Anguilla.  Jerry was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for St. Maarten, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy.

Hurricane Jerry weakened during much of Friday, but it began to exhibited greater organization again late in the afternoon.  Thunderstorms weakened around the core of Jerry and in the rainbands on Friday morning.  The lack of stronger thunderstorms to transport stronger winds to the surface caused the circulation around the hurricane to weaken.  Northwesterly winds blowing around the eastern side of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea caused more vertical wind shear.  The circulation may have also draw some drier air into the western half of the circulation.  Stronger thunderstorms began to redevelop near the center of circulation late in the afternoon.  Thunderstorms also began to form in a band on the western side of Hurricane Jerry.  The circulation around Jerry was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 90 miles (145 km) from the center.

Hurricane Jerry will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the weekend.  Jerry will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move near the eastern side of an upper level ridge and the ridge will cause some vertical wind shear.  If the shear is greater, the Hurricane Jerry could weaken to a tropical storm.  If the shear is less then Hurricane Jerry could intensify.  It is possible that the wind speed in Hurricane Jerry will fluctuate during the weekend as the strength of the upper level wind changes.

Hurricane Jerry will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Jerry toward the west-northwest during the next 12 to 24 hours.  A portion of the high is forecast to weaken during the weekend and if that happens, then Hurricane Jerry could move northward.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Jerry will pass north of the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico.

Hurricane Dorian Strengthens North of Puerto Rico

Hurricane Dorian strengthened north of Puerto Rico on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Dorian was located at latitude 19.7°N and longitude 66.0°W which put it about 90 miles (145 km) north of San Juan, Puerto Rico.  Dorian was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 110 m.p.h. (170 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

The circulation around Hurricane Dorian strengthened steadily on Wednesday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 14 miles (22 km) formed at the center of circulation.  A closed ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in the northeastern part of that ring.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Dorian.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the north and northeast of the hurricane.  The circulation around Hurricane Dorian remained fairly small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 20 miles (30 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Dorian.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 70 miles from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Dorian will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Dorian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move into an area where the upper level winds are relatively weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Dorian is very likely to intensify during the next 48 hours and it could intensify rapidly at times.  Dorian is likely to strengthen into a major hurricane.

An upper level low near the Bahamas will pull Hurricane Dorian toward the northwest during the next 24 to 36 hours.  A strong ridge of high pressure will build north of Dorian on Friday.  The high will block Dorian from moving north and it will turn it toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Dorian could be near the northern Bahamas on Saturday night.  Dorian could approach the east coast of Florida by later on Sunday.  Dorian is likely to be a major hurricane when it approaches Florida.