Hurricane Rafael Hits Western Cuba

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Hurricane Rafael hit western Cuba late on Wednesday afternoon.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Rafael was located at latitude 22.6°N and longitude 82.7°W which put the center about 45 miles (75 km) south-southwest of Havana, Cuba.   Rafael was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 950 mb.

A  Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, and Cienfuegos.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys from Key West to Channel 5 Bridge.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Dry Tortugas. 

Hurricane Rafael intensified to a major hurricane on Wednesday before it hit western Cuba.  Concentric eyewalls formed in the core of Rafael’s circulation.  An eyewall replacement cycle started, but the inner eyewall was still intact when Hurricane Rafael hit western Cuba.  Since the inner eyewall was still intact, Rafael did not weaken before it hit Cuba.

Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the concentric eyewalls.  Storms near the core of Rafael generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Rafael was small.  Wind to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Rafael’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the eastern side of Hurricane Rafael.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the western side of Rafael.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Rafael was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.4.  Hurricane Rafael was similar in intensity to Hurricane Delta when Delta hit Louisiana in 2020.  Rafael was not as big as Delta was.

Hurricane Rafael will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Rafael toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Rafael will move across western Cuba during the next few few hours.  Rafael will move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday.

Hurricane Rafael will bring strong winds and heavy rain to western Cuba.  Strong winds could cause widespread electricity outages in Cuba.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.  Rafael could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the south coast of western Cuba.  Hurricane Rafael will be capable of causing localized major damage.

Hurricane Rafael will weaken as it moves across western Cuba.  Rafael will move into an environment somewhat favorable for intensification after it moves north of Cuba.  Rafael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the eastern periphery of a large upper level trough that extends from the North Central U.S. to the Southwest U.S.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Rafael’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Hurricane Rafael will could intensify on Thursday after it moves north of Cuba.

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forms Southwest of Mexico

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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico on Wednesday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E was located at latitude 23.1°N and longitude 106.1°W which put the center about 490 miles (790 km) west-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.  The tropical depression was moving toward the northeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico strengthened on Wednesday morning and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Fourteen-E.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of the tropical depression.  More thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of the depression’s circulation.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough west of Baja California.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of the depression’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be enough to prevent some intensification.  Tropical Depression Fourteen-E could intensify to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Mexico.  The high pressure system will strengthen during the next 24 hours.  When the high pressure system strengthens it will push the tropical depression toward the southeast.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Fourteen-E will remain west of Mexico during the next several days.

Hurricane Rafael Approaches Western Cuba

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Hurricane Rafael was approaching western Cuba on Wednesday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Rafael was located at latitude 21.4°N and longitude 81.9°W which put the center about 130 miles (210 km) south-southeast of Havana, Cuba.  Rafael was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

A  Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritis, and Ciego de Avila.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Florida Keys from Key West to Channel 5 Bridge.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Dry Tortugas. 

Hurricane Rafael began to intensify more rapidly on Wednesday morning.  Two concentric eyewalls formed at the center of Rafael’s circulation.  A small inner eye was at the center of Hurricane Rafael.  The inner eye was surrounded by a tight ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the inner eye and eyewall and a larger, outer eyewall formed.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the concentric eyewalls.  Storms near the core of Rafael generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Rafael was small.  Wind to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Rafael’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the eastern side of Hurricane Rafael.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the western side of Rafael.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Rafael was 19.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 6.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 26.0.  Hurricane Rafael was similar in intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.  Rafael was not as big as Zeta was.

Hurricane Rafael will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours.  Rafael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Rafael will intensify during the next few hours.  Rafael is likely to strengthen to a major hurricane.

Hurricane Rafael will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Rafael toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Rafael will reach western Cuba in a few hours.

Hurricane Rafael will bring strong winds and heavy rain to western Cuba.  Strong winds could cause widespread electricity outages in Cuba.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.  Rafael could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the south coast of western Cuba.  Hurricane Rafael will be capable of causing localized major damage.

Typhoon Yinxing Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

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Typhoon Yinxing intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of northern Luzon on Wednesday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Yinxing was located at latitude 18.2°N and longitude 123.7°E which put the center about 135 miles (220 km) east of Aparri, Philippines.  Yinxing was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 958 mb.

Typhoon Yinxing intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane east of Luzon on Wednesday morning.  A circular eye was at the center of Yinxing’s circulation.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Yinxing.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Typhoon Yinxing was large.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 40 miles from the center of Yinxing’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 215 miles (345 km) from the center of Typhoon Yinxing.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Yinxing was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 34.2.  Typhoon Yinxing was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Delta when Delta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Typhoon Yinxing will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Yinxing will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under axis of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Yinxing will intensify during the next 12 hours.

Typhoon Yinxing will move around the southern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Yinxing toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Yinxing will reach northern Luzon in 18 hours.

Typhoon Yinxing will bring strong, gusty winds and heavy rain to northern Luzon.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods and mudslides.  Yinxing will cause widespread power outages.  Typhoon Yinxing could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast of northern Luzon.  Yinxing will be capable of causing regional major damage.

Rafael Intensifies to a Hurricane Near Cayman Islands

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Former Tropical Storm Rafael intensified to a hurricane near the Cayman Islands on Tuesday evening.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Rafael was located at latitude 19.7°N and longitude 80.4°W which put the center about 60 miles (95 km) east-northeast of Grand Cayman.  Rafael was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, and Cayman Brac.  A  Hurricane Warning was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritis, and Ciego de Avila.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Florida Keys from Key West to Channel 5 Bridge.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas.

Former Tropical Storm Rafael intensified to a hurricane on Tuesday evening.  A circular eye with a diameter of 15 miles (17 km) formed at the center of Rafael’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Rafael.  Storms near the core of Rafael generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Hurricane Rafael.  Wind to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the eastern side of Rafael’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the western side of Hurricane Rafael.

Hurricane Rafael will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rafael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Rafael will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Rafael could intensify rapidly at times.

Hurricane Rafael will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Rafael toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Rafael will move away from the Cayman Islands.  Rafael is likely to reach western Cuba by Wednesday afternoon.

Hurricane Rafael will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Cayman Islands for the next few hours.  Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations. Rafael could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) in the Cayman Islands.  Hurricane Rafael will bring strong winds and heavy rain to western Cuba.  Strong winds could cause widespread electricity outages in Cuba.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.  Rafael could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the south coast of western Cuba.

Tropical Storm Rafael Brings Wind and Rain to Jamaica

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Tropical Storm Rafael was bringing wind and rain to Jamaica on Tuesday morning.  The center of Rafael was just southwest of Jamaica.  At 7:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located at latitude 17.4°N and longitude 78.4°W which put the center about 80 miles (130 km) south-southwest of Montego Bay, Jamaica.  Rafael was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, and Cayman Brac.  A  Hurricane Warning was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Jamaica. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritis, and Ciego de Avila.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Florida Keys from Key West to Channel 5 Bridge.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas.

Tropical Storm Rafael was strengthening on Tuesday morning as it passed near Jamaica.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western and southern sides of the center of Rafael’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Rafael.  Storms near the center of Rafael generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Storm Rafael was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) in the eastern side of Rafael’s circulation.  The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Rafael were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Rafael will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rafael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Rafael will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Rafael could intensify rapidly at times.  Tropical Storm Rafael is likely to strengthen to a hurricane by Tuesday night.

Tropical Storm Rafael will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Rafael toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Rafael will reach the Cayman Islands by Tuesday night.  Rafael is likely to reach western Cuba by Wednesday afternoon.

Tropical Storm Rafael will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain Jamaica for the rest of Tuesday.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Rafael is likely to be a hurricane when it moves over the Cayman Islands.  Rafael will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Cayman Islands.  It could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) in the Cayman Islands.  Rafael will be a hurricane when it reaches western Cuba.  Strong winds could cause widespread electricity outages in Cuba.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Depression Strengthens to Tropical Storm Rafael

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Former Tropical Depression Eighteen strengthened to Tropical Storm Rafael south of Jamaica on Monday afternoon.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 76.7°W which put the center about 175 miles (280 km) south of Kingston, Jamaica.  Rafael was moving toward the north at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, and Cayman Brac,

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Jamaica.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Florida Keys from Key West to Channel 5 Bridge.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritis, Ciego de Avila, Camaguey and Las Tunas.

Former Tropical Depression Eighteen strengthened on Monday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Rafael.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Rafael was organizing rapidly.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Rafael’s circulation.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of circulation.  More thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Rafael.  Storms near the center of Rafael generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away fro the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Tropical Storm Rafael will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rafael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Rafael will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Rafael could intensify rapidly at times.  Tropical Storm Rafael is likely to strengthen to a hurricane on Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Rafael will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Rafael toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Rafael will pass near Jamaica on Monday night.  Rafael  will reach the Cayman Islands by Tuesday night.  Rafael is likely to reach western Cuba by Wednesday afternoon.

Tropical Storm Rafael will bring strong winds and heavy rain Jamaica. Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Rafael is likely to be a hurricane when it moves over the Cayman Islands.  Rafael will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Cayman Islands.  It could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) in the Cayman Islands.

Yinxing Strengthens to a Typhoon

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Former Tropical Storm Yinxing strengthened to a typhoon over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Typhoon Yinxing was located at latitude 14.8°N and longitude 129.5°W which put the center about 610 miles (980 km) east of Manila, Philippines.  Yinxing was moving toward the northwest at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Yinxing strengthened to a typhoon east of the Philippines on Monday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Yinxing’s circulation.  An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Typhoon Yinxing.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation.  Storms near the center of Yinxing generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.

Winds to typhoon force extended out 35 miles in the eastern side of Typhoon Yinxing.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 165 miles (265 km) from the center of Yinxing’s circulation.

Typhoon Yinxing will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Yinxing will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Yinxing’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Typhoon Yinxing will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Yinxing will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Yinxing toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Yinxing will move toward the northern Philippines.  Yinxing could approach northern Luzon in three days.

Tropical Storm Warning Issued for Jamaica, Hurricane Watch for Cayman Islands

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The threat posed by a low pressure system over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea prompted the issuance of a Tropical Storm Warning for Jamaica and a Hurricane Watch for the Cayman Islands on Sunday afternoon.  The low pressure system was designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen by the U.S. National Hurricane Center.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen was located at latitude 13.0°N and longitude 77.1°W which put the center about 345 miles (555 km) south of Kingston, Jamaica.  The low pressure system was moving toward the northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, and Cayman Brac.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Jamaica.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated a low pressure system over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea on Sunday afternoon.  The aircraft found that there was a distinct low low level center of circulation in the low pressure system.  More thunderstorms were forming near the center of the low pressure system.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were starting to revolve around the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen.  Storms near the center of the low pressure system began to generate upper level divergence.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea.  The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of the low pressure system.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen will intensify during the next 24 hours.  It is likely to become a tropical storm on Monday.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen will reach Jamaica on Monday night.  It could reach the Cayman Islands on Tuesday afternoon.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen will bring strong winds and heavy rain Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.

Elsewhere, Subtropical Storm Patty moved east of the Azores.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Subtropical Storm Patty was located at latitude 37.3°N and longitude 22.3°W which put the center about 280 miles (450 km) east-southeast of Lajes, Azores.  Patty was moving toward the east at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Storm Yinxing Forms East of the Philippines

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Tropical Storm Yinxing formed east of the Philippines on Sunday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Yinxing was located at latitude 11.5°N and longitude 134.0°W which put the center about 955 miles (1540 km) east-southeast of Manila, Philippines.  Yinxing was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A low pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines strengthened on Sunday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Yinxing.  The circulation around Yinxing was organizing rapidly.  More thunderstorms were forming near the center of Tropical Storm Yinxing.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Yinxing’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Yinxing generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Tropical Storm Yinxing will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Yinxing will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Yinxing will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Yingxing is likely to strengthen to a typhoon on Monday.

Tropical Storm Yinxing will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Yinxing toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Yinxing will move toward the northern Philippines.