Tropical Low Forms Near Western Australia

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A Tropical Low formed near the coast of Western Australia on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 19.0°S and longitude 120.0°E which put the center about 100 miles (160 km) northeast of Port Hedland, Australia.  The tropical low was moving toward the west-southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from De Grey to Dampier.  The Warning included Port Hedland and Karratha.

A Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Ningaloo to Dampier.  The Watch included Onslow and Exmouth.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean near the coast of Western Australia developed a well defined center of circulation and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as a Tropical Low.  A ring of thunderstorms was forming around the center of the Tropical Low.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical low.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation.

The Tropical Low will move through an environment favorable for the intensification of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  The Tropical Low will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge northwest of Australia.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  The only factor that will inhibit the intensification of the Tropical Low is the fact that the center of circulation is near the coast of Western Australia.  Much of the southern part of the Tropical Low is over land.  The Tropical Low is likely to intensify to a named tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.

The Tropical Low will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer the Tropical Low toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the Tropical Low will move parallel to the coast of Western Australia.  The center of the Tropical Low is forecast to remain over water.

The Tropical Low will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of Western Australia.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi Passes South of La Reunion

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Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi passed far to the south of La Reunion on Thursday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was located at latitude 32.3°S and longitude 50.3°E which put the center about 795 miles (1235 km) south-southwest of St. Denis, La Reunion.  Dikeledi was moving toward the east-southeast at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi began to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone on Thursday as it moved over the Southwest Indian Ocean far to the south of La Reunion.  An eye was no longer visible at the center of Dikeledi’s circulation.  Microwave satellite images still showed evidence of the former eyewall.  The strongest winds were occurring in the former eyewall.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southeastern part of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi.  Bands in the other parts of Dikeledi’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi increased on Thursday, when Dikeledi started the transition to an extratropical cyclone.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of Dikeledi.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dikeledi will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over southern Africa.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dikeledi’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will weaken during the next 24 hours.  Cooler Sea Surface Temperatures and moderate vertical wind shear will cause Dikeledi to continue to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough over southern Africa will steer Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dikeldi will pass far to the south of Mauritius on Friday.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi Passes Southwest of Madagascar

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Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi passed southwest of Madagascar on Wednesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was located at latitude 26.4°S and longitude 42.9°E which put the center about 150 miles (240 km) southwest of Beloha, Madagascar.  Dikeledi was moving toward the south-southeast at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi intensified on Wednesday as it moved southwest of Madagascar.  A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) formed at the center of Dikeledi’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi.  Storms near the core of Dikeledi generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi increased on Wednesday.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Dikeledi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the western side of Dikeledi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.8 and the Hurricane Wind intensity Size INdex (HWISI) was 28.3.  Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Idalia when Idalia hit Florida in 2023.

Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi were bring gusty winds and heavy rain to southern Madagascar.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dikeledi will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over southern Africa.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dikeledi’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will weaken when the wind shear increases.

The upper level trough over southern Africa will steer Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dikeldi will pass south of Madagascar.  Dikeledi will move southeast of Madagascar on Thursday.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi Moves Back Over the Mozambique Channel

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Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi moved back over the Mozambique Channel on Tuesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was located at latitude 19.6°S and longitude 40.0°E which put the center about 225 miles (365 km) southeast of Quelimane, Mozambique.  Dikeledi was moving toward the south at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi moved back over the Mozambique Channel on Tuesday.  Dikeledi began to strengthen again after the center of circulation moved back over water.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Dikeledi’s circulation.  More thunderstorms also formed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi.  Storms near the center of Dikeledi generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The distribution of winds speeds in Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi after its passage over northeastern Mozambique on Monday.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) in the eastern side of Dikeledi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the western side of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dikeledi will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over southern Africa and the Mozambique Channel.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will intensify back to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Dikeledi toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will approach Europa Island in 12 hours.  Dikeledi will be southwest of Madagascar in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi Hits Northern Mozambique

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Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi hit northern Mozambique on Monday morning.  At 7:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was located at latitude 15.1°S and longitude 40.6°E which put the center about 30 miles (50 km) south of Nacala, Mozambique.  Dikeledi was moving toward the west-southwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi hit the coast of northern Mozambique just to the south of Nacala on Monday morning.  Dikeledi was the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon at the time the center made landfall.  A small circular eye was present at the center of Dikeledi’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was relatively small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Dikeledi’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi is 11.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 8.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 20.0.  Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi is similar in size to Hurricane Isaias when Isaias hit North Carolina in 2020.  Dikeledi is not as strong as Isaias was.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Dikeledi toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will move along the coast of northern Mozambique during the next 24hours.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will be just inland along the coast of northern Mozambique south of Nacala during the next 24 hours.  Dikeledi will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the coast of Mozambique.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Dikeledi could cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the coast of northern Mozambique.  Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi could move back over the Mozambique Channel later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi Moves Over the Mozambique Channel

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Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi moved over the northern Mozambique Channel on Sunday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was located at latitude 14.6°S and longitude 43.4°E which put the center about 215 miles (345 km) east of Nacala, Mozambique.  Dikeledi was moving toward the west-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi weakened as it moved across northern Madagascar on Saturday night.  An eye was no longer at the center of Dikeledi’s circulation.  The inner end of a rainband was still wrapped around the northern side of center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Dikeledi’s circulation.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was relatively symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Dikeledi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi is 11.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 7.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 19.2  Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi is similar in size to Hurricane Isaias when Isaias hit North Carolina in 2020.  Dikeledi is not as strong as Isaias was.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dikeledi will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over southern Africa and the Mozambique Channel.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dikeledi’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will move around the northwestern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Dikeledi toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will approach northern Mozambique in 18 hours.  The steering winds will weaken on Monday and Dikeledi will move more slowly when it approaches northern Mozambique.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will be near the coast of northern Mozambique south of Nacala in 24 hours.  Dikeledi will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the coast of Mozambique.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Dikeledi could cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the coast of northern Mozambique.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi Brings Wind and Rain to Northern Madagascar

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Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi brought wind and rain to northern Madagascar on Saturday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was located at latitude 13.1°S and longitude 48.4°E which put the center about 60 miles (95 km) south of Antsiranana, Madagascar.  Dikeledi was moving toward the west-southwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon before it reached northern Madagascar on Saturday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Dikeledi’s circulation.  An eye appeared intermittently on microwave satellite images.  The intermittent eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core to Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Dikeledi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi is 12.7.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 9.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 22.2  Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Isaias when Isaias hit North Carolina in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will move across northern Madagascar during the next few hours.  Dikeledi is capable of causing localized minor wind damage.  Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will also drop heavy rain over parts of northern Madagascar.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Dikeledi toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will move across northern Madagascar during the next few hours.  The center of Dikeledi’s circulation will pass near Mayotte on Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will weaken while it moves across northern Madagascar.  Dikeledi will will move through an environment favorable for intensification when it reaches the northern Mozambique Channel on Sunday.  Dikeledi will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dikeledi’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi is likely to intensify on Sunday when it gets to the northern Mozambique Channel.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi Approaches Northern Madagascar

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Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was approaching northern Madagascar on Friday afternoon.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was located at latitude 13.1°S and longitude 53.5°E which put the center about 285 miles (460 km) east of Antsiranana, Madagascar.  Dikeledi was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi intensified on Friday as it approached northern Madagascar.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western and northern sides of the center of Dikeledi’s circulation.  An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Dikeledi’s circulation.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi became more symmetrical on Friday.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Dikeledi’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Dikeledi will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dikeledi’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will intensify during the next 12 hours.  Dikeledi could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer DIkeledi toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will reach northern Madagascar in 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to northern Madagascar.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Pita Forms West of Niue

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Tropical Cyclone Pita formed over the South Pacific Ocean west of Niue on Friday.  At 1:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Pita was located at latitude 18.5°S and longitude 172.2°W which put the center about 155 miles (250 km) west-northwest of Niue.  Pita was moving toward the east-southeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean west of Niue strengthened on Friday and the Fiji Meteorological Service designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Pita.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Pita organized quickly on Friday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern and southern sides of the center of Pita’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Pita.  Storms near the center of Pita generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Pita will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Pita will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Pita’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Pita is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Pita will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Pita toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Pita will reach Niue in less than 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone PIta will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Niue.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi Passes North of Mauritius

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Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was passing north of Mauritius on Thursday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thussday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was located at latitude 13.5°S and longitude 59.4°E which put the center about 485 miles (785 km) north-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Dikeledi was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi strengthened gradually as it moved over the South Indian Ocean north-northeast of Mauritius on Thursday.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Dikeledi’s circulation.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern and western sides of the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Dikeledi.  Storms near the center of Dikeledi generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the southern half of Dikeledi’s circulation.  The winds in the northern half of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dikeledi will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dikeledi’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Dikeledi could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon within 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer DIkeledi toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will approach northern Madagascar in 36 hours.