Category Archives: Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic TCs

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Spins over the Central Atlantic

Tropical Storm Gabrielle was spinning over the Central Atlantic Ocean on Thursday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was located at latitude 20.8°N and longitude 52.7°W which put the center about 700 miles (1125 km) east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands.  Gabrielle was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

The appearance of Tropical Storm Gabrielle did not change much on Thursday.  Gabrielle consisted of bands of showers and low clouds revolving around the center of circulation for much of Thursday.  New thunderstorms began to develop late Thursday afternoon in bands northeast of the center of Gabrielle’s circulation.  The bands in the other parts of Tropical Storm Gabrielle still consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Gabrielle was very asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 290 miles (465 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Gabrielle’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) in the southeastern and northwestern quadrants of Gabrielle.  The winds in the southwestern quadrant of Tropical Storm Gabrielle were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle will move through an environment that will be only marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Gabrielle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  However, an upper level low that is northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands will produce strong southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Gabrielle’s circulation.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear will prevent significant intensification during the next 24 hours.  The wind shear is forecast to decrease during the weekend and Tropical Storm Gabrielle is likely to intensify when the shear decreases.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle will move around the southwestern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Gabrielle toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Gabrielle will pass northeast of the Leeward Islands on Friday night.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forms East of Leeward Islands

Tropical Storm Gabrielle formed over the Atlantic Ocean east of the Leeward Islands on Wednesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was located at latitude 17.5°N and longitude 46.6°W which put the center about 1085 miles (1745 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands.  Gabrielle was moving toward the north-northwest at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A low pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean east of the Northern Leeward Islands strengthened on Tuesday morning and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Gabrielle.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Gabrielle was poorly organized on Thursday morning.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands east of the center of Gabrielle’s circulation.  Bands in the western part of Tropical Storm Gabrielle consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  An upper level low northeast of the Leeward Islands was producing strong southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Gabrielle’s circulation.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear was causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Gabrielle.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Gabrielle was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) in the eastern side of Gabrielle’s circulation.  The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Gabrielle were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle will move through an environment that will be only marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Gabrielle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.   However, the upper level low that is northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear will prevent significant intensification during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle will move around the southwestern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Gabrielle toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Gabrielle will pass northeast of the Leeward Islands later this week.

 

Tropical Storm Fernand Moves East

Tropical Storm Fernand moved east over the North Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was located at latitude 39.3°N and longitude 47.4°W which put the center about 585 miles (945 km) south-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland.  Fernand was moving toward the east-northeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Many of the thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Fernand dissipated on Wednesday as Fernand moved over cooler water.  The circulation around Fernand consisted primarily of bands of showers and lower clouds.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Tropical Storm Fernand.

Tropical Storm Fernand will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification of a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.  Fernand will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 22°C.  An upper level wind trough east of Canada will produce southwesterly winds that will blow across the top of Fernand’s circulation.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear.  The combination of cool water and strong vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Fernand to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Fernand will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fernand toward the east-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Fernand will move southeast of Newfoundland on Thursday.

Tropical Storm Fernand Passes Far South of Newfoundland

Tropical Storm Fernand passed far to the south of Newfoundland on Tuesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was located at latitude 38.1°N and longitude 53.4°W which put the center about 595 miles (955 km) south of Cape Race, Newfoundland.  Fernand was moving toward the northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Tropical Storm Fernand weakened on Tuesday as it passed far to the south of Newfoundland.  Fernand continued to move under the southeastern side of an upper level ridge over the North Atlantic.  The upper level ridge produced northerly winds that blew across the top of Fernand’s circulation.  Those winds caused moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear caused the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Fernand to remain asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern part of Fernand’s circulation.  Bands in the northern part of Tropical Storm Fernand consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Storm Fernand was asymmetrical.   Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the eastern side of Fernand’s circulation.  The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Fernand were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Fernand will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification of a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.  Fernand will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25°C.  The upper level wind ridge over the North Atlantic will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The combination of cooler water and vertical wind shear will prevent Tropical Storm Fernand from intensifying during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Fernand will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fernand toward the east-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Fernand will remain far to the southeast of Newfoundland on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Fernand Starts to Weaken

Tropical Storm Fernand started to weaken on Monday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was located at latitude 36.1°N and longitude 56.3°W which put the center about 550 miles (890 km) east-northeast of Bermuda.  Fernand was moving toward the northeast at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. 1095 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Fernanda started to weaken on Monday evening as it moved over the Atlantic Ocean east-northeast of Bermuda.  Fernand moved under the southeastern part of an upper level ridge over the North Atlantic.  The upper level ridge produced northerly winds that blew across the top of Fernand’s circulation.  Those winds caused moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear caused the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Fernand to become asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southeastern part of Fernand’s circulation.  Bands in the other parts of Tropical Storm Fernand consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Fernand was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Fernand’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Fernand will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fernand will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  However, the upper level wind ridge over the North Atlantic will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Fernand to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Fernand will move around the northwestern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fernand toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Fernand will pass well to the south of Newfoundland on Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Fernand Passes East of Bermuda

Tropical Storm Fernand passed east of Bermuda on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was located at latitude 31.8°N and longitude 59.8°W which put the center about 295 miles (475 km) east of Bermuda.  Fernand was moving toward the north-northeast at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

Tropical Storm Fernand strengthened gradually on Sunday as it passed east of Bermuda.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of Fernand’s circulation.  More thunderstorms also formed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Fernand.  Storms near the center of Fernand generated upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the tropical storm.

The strongest winds were blowing in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Fernand.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the eastern side of Fernand’s circulation.  The winds in the western side of Fernand were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Fernand will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fernand will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough that is east of the U.S.  The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Fernand’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Fernand will intensify during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough that is east of the U.S. will steer Tropical Storm Fernand toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Fernand move farther away from Bermuda on Monday.

Tropical Storm Fernand Forms South-southeast of Bermuda

Tropical Storm Fernand formed over the Atlantic Ocean south-southeast of Bermuda on Saturday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was located at latitude 27.2°N and longitude 61.4°W which put the center about 405 miles (655 km) south-southeast of Bermuda.  Fernand was moving toward the north at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

A low pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean south-southeast of Bermuda exhibited more organization on Saturday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Fernand.

The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Fernand was asymmetrical.  A few thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Fernand’s circulation.  Bands in the other parts of Tropical Storm Fernand consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The distribution of winds speeds in Tropical Storm Fernand was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) in the southeastern quadrant of Fernand’s circulation.  The winds in the other parts of Tropical Storm Fernand were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Fernand will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fernand will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough off the east coast of the U.S.  The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Fernand’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  Fernand will move into a region of drier air.  The moderate vertical wind shear and the drier air will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Storm Fernand could intensify slowly on Sunday in spite of the moderate wind shear and drier air.

Tropical Storm Fernand will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system.  The high pressure system will steer Fernand toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Fernand will pass east of Bermuda on Sunday.

Erin Transitions to Powerful Extratropical Cyclone

Former Hurricane Erin made a transition to a powerful extratropical cyclone over the Atlantic Ocean south of Nova Scotia on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of former Hurricane Erin was located at latitude 40.0°N and longitude 59.7°W which put the center about 375 miles (605 km) south-southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia.  Erin was moving toward the east-northeast at 33 m.p.h. (54 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 957 mb.

Former Hurricane Erin made a transition to a large and powerful extratropical cyclone on Friday.  The structure of Erin’s circulation changed as part of its transition to an extratropical cyclone.  A warm front now extends east of the center of Erin’s circulation.  A cold front extends southwest of the center of former Hurricane Erin.

The size of the circulation around former Hurricane Erin increased as Erin made its transition to an extratropical cyclone.  Winds to hurricane force extend out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out 440 miles (705 km) from the center of former Hurricane Erin.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for former Hurricane Erin is 13.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 47.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 61.2.  Former Hurricane Erin is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Sandy when Sandy hit the east coast of the U.S. in 2012.

The westerly winds in the middle latitudes will steer former Hurricane Erin quickly toward the east-northeast during the next few days.  On its anticipated track the powerful extratropical cyclone will be south of Iceland by early next week.

Hurricane Erin Passes South of Cape Cod

Hurricane Erin passed south of Cape Cod on Thursday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Erin was located at latitude 36.4°N and longitude 69.1°W which put the center about 320 miles (520 km) south of Nantucket Island.   Erin was moving toward the northeast at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).   The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Duck, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda.

Hurricane Erin started to weaken slowly as it moved over the Atlantic Ocean between Cape Cod and Bermuda on Thursday.  No eye was visible at the center of Erin’s circulation on satellite images.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Erin.  Storms near the center of Erin were still generating upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper levels of the atmosphere almost matched the inflow of mass in the lower levels.  There was slightly more mass flowing into the center of Erin’s circulation.  So, the surface pressure was slowly increasing.

The circulation around Hurricane Erin was very large.  Winds to hurricane force extend out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Erin’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out 320 miles (520 km) from the center of Hurricane Erin.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Erin is 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 36.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 53.4.  Hurricane Erin is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Ike when Ike hit Texas in 2008.  Erin is not quite as strong as Ike was, but Hurricane Erin is bigger than Hurricane Ike was.

Hurricane Erin will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification of a hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Erin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over the Northeast U.S. and the Great Lakes.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Erin’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Erin will weaken slowly during the next 24 hours.  Erin is likely to make a transition to a strong extratropical cyclone during the weekend.

The upper level trough over the Northeast U.S. and the Great Lakes will steer Hurricane Erin toward the east-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Erin will pass south of Nova Scotia on Friday.

The large circulation around Hurricane Erin will continue to produce large waves that will move toward the east coast of the U.S.  Erin could continue to cause a storm surge of up to four feet (one meter) along the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Thursday night.  Mandatory evacuations are in effect for Hatteras Island and Ocracoke Island.  Water has already washed over parts of Hatteras Island.  The large waves are likely to cause significant beach erosion.  Conditions along the Outer Banks should start to improve on Friday when Hurricane Erin moves farther away.

The large circulation around Hurricane Erin could also produce tropical storm force winds in Bermuda.

Hurricane Erin Moves Southeast of Cape Hatteras

Hurricane Erin moved southeast of Cape Hatteras on Wednesday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Erin was located at latitude 32.8°N and longitude 73.1°W which put the center about 215 miles (345 km) southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  Erin was moving toward the north-northeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 942 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Bermuda.

Concentric eyewalls formed again in Hurricane Erin on Wednesday.  The inner eyewall had a radius of 17 miles (28 km).  The outer eyewall had a radius of 75 miles (120 km).  The strongest winds were occurring in the outer eyewall.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the concentric eyewalls.  Storms near the center of Erin generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large quantities of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease on Wednesday.

The circulation around Hurricane Erin was very large.  Winds to hurricane force extend out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Erin’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out 265 miles (425 km) from the center of Hurricane Erin.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Erin is 19.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 33.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 52.2.  Hurricane Erin is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Ike when Ike hit Texas in 2008.

Hurricane Erin will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Erin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over the Northeast U.S. and the Great Lakes.  The upper level trough will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Erin’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase on Thursday.  Hurricane Erin will start to weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.

The upper level trough over the Northeast U.S. and the Great Lakes will steer Hurricane Erin toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Erin will be move away from Cape Hatteras on Thursday.  Erin will pass far to the south of Long Island on Thursday.

The large circulation around Hurricane Erin will produce large waves that will move toward the east coast of the U.S.  Erin could cause a storm surge of up to four feet (one meter) along the Outer Banks of North Carolina.  Mandatory evacuations have been ordered for Hatteras Island and Ocracoke Island.  Water is already washing over parts of Hatteras Island.  The large waves are likely to cause significant beach erosion.  The large circulation around Hurricane Erin could also bring tropical storm force winds to the Outer Banks.  Conditions along the Outer Banks should start to improve on Friday when Hurricane Erin moves farther away.