Category Archives: Western North Pacific

Western Pacific Typhoons and Tropical Storms

Toraji Rapidly Intensifies to a Typhoon East of Luzon

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Former Tropical Storm Toraji rapidly intensified to a typhoon east of Luzon on Sunday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Typhoon Toraji was located at latitude 16.2°N and longitude 122.7°E which put the center about 85 miles (135 km) east-southeast of Echague, Philippines. Toraji was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 970 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Toraji rapidly intensified to a typhoon over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of Luzon on Sunday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Toraji’s circulation.  An eye formed at the center of Typhoon Toraji.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Toraji’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Toraji generated upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Typhoon Toraji was small.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Toraji’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Typhoon Toraji.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Toraji was 13.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 7.7. and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 21.6.  Typhoon Toraji was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Isaias when Isaias hit North Carolina in 2020.

Typhoon Toraji will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Toraji will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under axis of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Toraji will continue to intensify during the next few hours.

Typhoon Toraji will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Toraji toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center Typhoon Toraji will reach Luzon in a few hours.

Typhoon Toraji will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to northern Luzon.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods and mudslides.  Toraji will also cause a storm surge of up to 9 feet (2.7 meters) along the coast of northeastern Luzon.  Northern Luzon is trying to recover from the damage caused by two recent typhoons.  Typhoon Toraji will seriously disrupt those recovery activities.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, former Typhoon Yinxing weakened rapidly over the South China Sea and Tropical Storm Man-yi moved closer to the Marianas.

At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Yinxing was located at latitude 17.8°N and longitude 111.7°E which put the center about 290 miles (465 km) east-northeast of Da Nang, Vietnam.  Yinxing was moving toward the southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Man-yi was located at latitude 15.2°N and longitude 153.4°E which put the center about 540 miles (870 km) east of Saipan.  Man-yi was moving toward the southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Storm Toraji Rapidly Develops East of the Philippines

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Tropical Storm Toraji rapidly developed over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines on Saturday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Toraji was located at latitude 15.1°N and longitude 127.7°E which put the center about 495 miles (795 km) east of Manila, Philippines.  Toraji was moving toward the west at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

A low pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines strengthened rapidly on Saturday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Toraji.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Toraji organized quickly on Saturday.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Toraji’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Toraji generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Toraji was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Toraji’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Toraji will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Toraji will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under axis of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Toraji will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Toraji could intensify rapidly at times.  Tropical Storm Toraji is likely to strengthen to a typhoon on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Toraji will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Toraji toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Toraji will approach Luzon in a little over 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Toraji is likely to be a typhoon when it reaches northern Luzon.  Toraji will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to northern Luzon.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods and mudslides.  Northern Luzon is trying to recover from two recent typhoons.  Typhoon Toraji is likely to seriously disrupt those recovery activities.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Typhoon Yinxing passed south of Hong Kong and Tropical Storm Man-yi formed east of the Marianas.

At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Typhoon Yinxing was located at latitude 19.1°N and longitude 113.1°E which put the center about 220 miles (360 km) south-southwest of Hong Kong.  Yinxing was moving toward the west-northwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Man-yi was located at latitude 16.1°N and longitude 156.1°E which put the center about 720 miles (1160 km) east of Saipan.  Man-yi was moving toward the northwest at 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Typhoon Yinxing Spins Over the South China Sea

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Typhoon Yinxing was spinning over the South China Sea on Friday afternoon.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Typhoon Yinxing was located at latitude 18.7°N and longitude 115.4°E which put the center about 275 miles (445 km) south-southeast of Hong Kong.  Yinxing was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

Typhoon Yinxing was the equivalent of a major hurricane on Friday afternoon as it spun over the South China Sea.  A circular eye with a diameter of 22 miles (35 km) was that the center of Typhoon Yinxing.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Yinxing’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Yinxing generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.

The circulation around Typhoon Yinxing was a little smaller on Friday afternoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Yinxing’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of Typhoon Yinxing.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Yinxing was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 18.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 38.7.  Typhoon Yinxing was similar in intensity to Hurricane Delta when Delta hit Louisiana in 2020.  Yinxing is bigger than Delta was.

Typhoon Yinxing will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Yinxing will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under axis of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, a high pressure system over China will circulate drier air toward the northwestern part of Typhoon Yinxing.  The drier air will begin to be pulled into the northwestern part of Yinxing’s circulation.  The drier air will cause the thunderstorms in the part of Typhoon Yinxing.  The drier air is likely to cause Typhoon Yinxing to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Yinxing will move around the southern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Yinxing toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Yinxing will move pass south of Hong Kong during the next 24 hours.

Powerful Typhoon Yinxing Brings Wind and Rain to Northern Luzon

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Power Typhoon Yinxing was bringing wind and rain to northern Luzon on Thursday.  At 7:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Typhoon Yinxing was located at latitude 18.5°N and longitude 122.0°E which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) northeast of Aparri, Philippines.  Yinxing was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 937 mb.

The eye of powerful Typhoon Yinxing was just north of the coast of northern Luzon on Thursday morning.  The eye had a diameter of  23 miles (37 km).  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Yinxing.  Storms near the core of Yinxing generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large amounts of mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of large amounts of mass in the upper level slightly exceed the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere, which caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Typhoon Yinxing was large.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Yinxing’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (325 km) from the center of Typhoon Yinxing.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Yinxing was 29.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 19.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 49.6.  Typhoon Yinxing was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Laura when Laura hit southwest Louisiana in 2020.

Typhoon Yinxing will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Yinxing will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under axis of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Even though Typhoon Yinxing will move through an environment favorable for intensification, much of the southern half of Yingxing’s circulation, including the southern side of the eyewall, will move across northern Luzon.  Since almost half of Yinxing’s circulation will move over land Typhoon Yinxing will weaken during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Yinxing will move around the southern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean . The high pressure system will steer Yinxing toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Yinxing will move near the north coast of Luzon during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Yinxing will continue to bring strong, gusty winds and heavy rain to northern Luzon during the next 24 hours.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods and mudslides.  Yinxing will cause widespread power outages.  Typhoon Yinxing could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast of northern Luzon.  Yinxing will be capable of causing regional severe damage.

Typhoon Yinxing Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Typhoon Yinxing intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of northern Luzon on Wednesday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Yinxing was located at latitude 18.2°N and longitude 123.7°E which put the center about 135 miles (220 km) east of Aparri, Philippines.  Yinxing was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 958 mb.

Typhoon Yinxing intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane east of Luzon on Wednesday morning.  A circular eye was at the center of Yinxing’s circulation.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Yinxing.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Typhoon Yinxing was large.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 40 miles from the center of Yinxing’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 215 miles (345 km) from the center of Typhoon Yinxing.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Yinxing was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 34.2.  Typhoon Yinxing was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Delta when Delta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Typhoon Yinxing will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Yinxing will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under axis of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Yinxing will intensify during the next 12 hours.

Typhoon Yinxing will move around the southern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Yinxing toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Yinxing will reach northern Luzon in 18 hours.

Typhoon Yinxing will bring strong, gusty winds and heavy rain to northern Luzon.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods and mudslides.  Yinxing will cause widespread power outages.  Typhoon Yinxing could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast of northern Luzon.  Yinxing will be capable of causing regional major damage.

Yinxing Strengthens to a Typhoon

Former Tropical Storm Yinxing strengthened to a typhoon over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Typhoon Yinxing was located at latitude 14.8°N and longitude 129.5°W which put the center about 610 miles (980 km) east of Manila, Philippines.  Yinxing was moving toward the northwest at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Yinxing strengthened to a typhoon east of the Philippines on Monday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Yinxing’s circulation.  An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Typhoon Yinxing.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation.  Storms near the center of Yinxing generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.

Winds to typhoon force extended out 35 miles in the eastern side of Typhoon Yinxing.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 165 miles (265 km) from the center of Yinxing’s circulation.

Typhoon Yinxing will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Yinxing will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Yinxing’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Typhoon Yinxing will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Yinxing will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Yinxing toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Yinxing will move toward the northern Philippines.  Yinxing could approach northern Luzon in three days.

Tropical Storm Yinxing Forms East of the Philippines

Tropical Storm Yinxing formed east of the Philippines on Sunday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Yinxing was located at latitude 11.5°N and longitude 134.0°W which put the center about 955 miles (1540 km) east-southeast of Manila, Philippines.  Yinxing was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A low pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines strengthened on Sunday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Yinxing.  The circulation around Yinxing was organizing rapidly.  More thunderstorms were forming near the center of Tropical Storm Yinxing.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Yinxing’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Yinxing generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Tropical Storm Yinxing will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Yinxing will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Yinxing will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Yingxing is likely to strengthen to a typhoon on Monday.

Tropical Storm Yinxing will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Yinxing toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Yinxing will move toward the northern Philippines.

Tropical Storm Kong-rey Moves Over East China Sea

Tropical Storm Kong-rey moved over the East China Sea on Thursday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Kong-rey was located at latitude 27.3°N and longitude 121.2°E which put the center about 75 miles (120 km) southeast of Wenzhou, China.  Kong-rey was moving toward the north-northeast at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

Former Typhoon Kong-rey weakened to a tropical storm as it moved across Taiwan on Thursday.  The mountains in Taiwan significantly disrupted the circulation in the lower levels of Kong-rey.  The circulation in the middle and upper levels of Tropical Storm Kong-rey remained more intact.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were occurring in the eastern side of Kong-rey’s circulation.  Bands in the western side of Tropical Storm Kong-rey consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Kong-rey was still large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center Kong-rey.

Tropical Storm Kong-rey will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Kong-rey will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25°C.  An upper level trough over eastern China will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Kong-rey’s circulation.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear.  In addition, the western side of Tropical Storm Kong-rey will pull drier air over Asia into the tropical storm.  Cooler water, strong vertical wind shear, and drier air will cause Kong-rey to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.  The cooler water and strong wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Kong-rey to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone on Friday.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Storm Kong-rey toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Kong-rey will move near the coast of Zhejiang during the next 24 hours.  Tropical Storm Kong-rey could approach western Kyushu in 24 hours.

Bands in the western side of Tropical Storm Kong-rey will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to coastal parts of Zhejiang on Friday.  Kong-rey could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to western Japan on Saturday.

Typhoon Kong-rey Brings Wind and Rain to Taiwan

Typhoon Kong-rey brought strong winds and heavy rain to Taiwan on Thursday.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Kong-rey was located at latitude 23.6°N and longitude 121.1°E which put the center about 25 miles (40 km) south of Hualien, Taiwan.  Kong-rey was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

The center of Typhoon Kong-rey made landfall on the east coast of Taiwan south of Hualien early on Thursday.  Kong-rey was the equivalent of a major hurricane at the time of landfall.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Kong-rey’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 290 miles (465 km) from the center of Typhoon Kong-rey.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Kong-rey was 20.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 30.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 50.9.  Typhoon Kong-rey was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Ike when Ike hit Texas in 2008.

Typhoon Kong-rey was producing strong winds over much of Taiwan.  Those winds were capable of causing major damage.  Kong-rey was also dropping heavy rain over much of Taiwan.  The heavy rain in likely to cause flash floods in many locations.

Typhoon Kong-rey will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Kong-rey toward the north-northwest during the next 12 hours.  An upper level trough over eastern China will turn Kong-rey toward the north-northeast on Friday.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Kong-rey will move across Taiwan during the next few hours.  Kong-rey will move over the East China Sea and it will approach the east coast of China in 18 hours.

Typhoon Kong-rey will weaken today as it moves across Taiwan.  Kong-rey is unlikely to intensify when it moves over the East China Sea.  Kong-rey will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  However, the upper level trough over eastern China will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Kong-rey’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  More vertical wind shear will cause Kong-rey to continue to weaken after it moves over the East China Sea.

Bands on the western side of Typhoon Kong-rey will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the east coast of China.  Strong winds and locally heavy rain will affect coastal regions in Fujian and Zhejiang.

 

Typhoon Kong-rey Approaches Taiwan

Typhoon Kong-rey was approaching Taiwan on Wednesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Kong-rey was located at latitude 20.8°N and longitude 123.2°E which put the center about 350 miles (565 km) south-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan.  Kong-rey was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (2225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 934 mb.

Typhoon Kong-rey went through an eyewall replacement cycle during the past 18 hours.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the existing eye and eyewall.  Concentric eyewalls formed.  The inner eyewall had a diameter of 25 miles (40 km).  The outer eyewall had a diameter of 175 miles (285 km).  The inner eyewall started to weaken after the outer eyewall formed.  Typhoon Kong-rey weakened a little after the eyewall replacement cycle began

A large eye with a diameter of 175 miles (285 km) was at the center of Kong-rey’s circulation.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the large eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Kong-rey.  Storms near the core of Kong-rey’ circulation generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of large amounts of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the large quantities of mass flowing into the center of Typhoon Kong-rey in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  The near balance of upper level divergence and lower level convergence of mass caused the surface pressure to increase very gradually.

The eyewall replacement cycle caused the circulation around Typhoon Kong-rey to increase in size.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of Kong-rey’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 260 miles (420 km) from the center of Typhoon Kong-rey.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Kong-rey was 28.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 42.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 70.3.  Typhoon Kong-rey was bigger and stronger than Hurricane Ivan was when Ivan made landfall on the north coast of the Gulf of Mexico in 2004.

Typhoon Kong-rey will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Kong-rey will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Kong-rey could intensify during the next 12 hours if the large eye starts to contract.

Typhoon Kong-rey will move around the southern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Kong-rey toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Kong-rey will reach Taiwan in 18 hours.

Typhoon Kong-rey is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches Taiwan.  Kong-rey will bring strong, gusty winds and heavy rain to Taiwan.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods.  Typhoon Kong-rey could also cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meter)s along the east coast of Taiwan.  Typhoon Kong-rey will be capable of causing extensive major damage in Taiwan.