Monthly Archives: May 2021

New Normals for Atlantic Hurricane Season

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) announced that new normals have been computed for the Atlantic Hurricane season. CPC will now use normals based on the averages for the thirty year period from 1991-2020. The new normal number of named storms for the Atlantic basin is 14. The new normal for hurricanes is 7 and the normal for major hurricanes is 3.

Climatologists routinely calculate new normals based on the most recent 30 year period at the end of each decade. The previous normals for the Atlantic basin were based on the period from 1981 to 2010. The previous normal for the number of named storms was 12. The previous normal for the number of hurricanes was 6 and the previous normal for the number of major hurricanes was 3. The increases in the number of named storms and hurricanes reflect a more active period that began in 1995.

Major Tropical Cyclone Tauktae Hits Gujarat

Major Tropical Cyclone Tauktae hit the Indian state of Gujarat on Monday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was located at latitude 21.2°N and longitude 71.4°E which put it about 25 miles (405 km) west of Mahuva, India. Tauktae was moving toward the north at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 946 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae made landfall on coast of Gujarat near Jafrabad, India on Monday. The core of Tauktae moved inland between Diu and Mahuva. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was the equivalent of a major hurricane, when it made landfall. A circular eye with a diameter of 23 miles (37 km) was evident on satellite imagery. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tauktae.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 39.9. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was capable of causing regional major damage.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will move inland toward the north-northeast over Gujarat during the next 24 hours. Tauktae will produce winds capable of causing major damage in the southern part of Gujarat. Strong southerly winds will push water into the Gulf of Khambhat. A storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) could occur at some places along the coast. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will also drop heavy rain over parts of Gujarat and flash floods could occur. Tauktae will start to move more toward the east later on Tuesday when it reaches the upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Tauktae Nears Gujarat

Severe Tropical Cyclone Tauktae neared the Indian state of Gujarat on Sunday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was located at latitude 18.9°N and longitude 71.5°E which put it about 90 miles (145 km) west-southwest of Mumbai, India. Tauktae was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (270 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 938 mb.

The core of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was passing just to the west of Mumbai, India on Sunday night. The core of Tauktae contracted on Sunday as the tropical cyclone continued to intensify. The diameter of the circular eye at the center of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae shrank to 14 miles (22 km). The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tauktae. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north and east of the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was very symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (75 km) from the center of Tauktae. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was 28.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 44.3. Tauktae was capable of causing regional severe damage.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will move through an environment favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 12 hours. Tauktae will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move the northwestern portion of an upper level ridge over India and the eastern Arabian Sea. The upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae is likely to maintain its intensity during the next 12 hours unless an eyewall replacement cycle begins. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Tauktae to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over India. The high will steer the Tauktae toward the north-northwest during the next 12 hours. Rainbands on the eastern side of the tropical cyclone could produce gusty winds, drop locally heavy rain and bring high waves to the west coast of India in Maharastra and Gujarat. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae could approach the coast of Gujarat near Diu in 12 hours. Tauktae is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when the center nears the coast. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will be capable of producing severe damage in Gujarat. Tauktae could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) on the coast of Gujarat. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae Intensifies to Equivalent of Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the Arabian Sea south of Mumbai, India on Sunday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was located at latitude 17.3°N and longitude 72.4°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) south-southwest of Mumbai, India. Tauktae was moving toward the north at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae continued to intensify on Sunday. A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) was at the center of Tauktae. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north and east of the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Tauktae increase in size on Sunday. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Tauktae. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 17.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 38.2. Tauktae was capable of causing regional major damage.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Tauktae will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move the northwestern portion of an upper level ridge over India and the eastern Arabian Sea. The upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae is likely to continue to intensify during the next 18 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over India. The high will steer the Tauktae toward the north-northwest during the next 18 hours. On its anticipated track the core of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will pass west of Mumbai, India. Rainbands on the eastern side of the tropical cyclone could produce gusty winds, drop locally heavy rain and bring high waves to the west coast of India in Maharastra and Gujarat. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae could approach the coast of Gujarat near Diu in 24 hours. Tauktae is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when the center nears the coast. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will be capable of producing major damage in Gujarat. Tauktae could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) on the coast of Gujarat. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Arabian Sea south of Mumbai on Saturday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was located at latitude 14.9°N and longitude 72.8°E which put it about 300 miles (485 km) south of Mumbai, India. Tauktae was moving toward the north-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae strengthened steadily on Saturday and it intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Tauktae and an eye was visible on the India Meteorological Department’s radar at Goa and on satellite imagery. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north and east of the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Tauktae. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Tauktae will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move the western portion of an upper level ridge over India and the eastern Arabian Sea. The upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will continue to intensify and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane within 36 hours. Since an inner core with an eye and an eyewall has developed, rapid intensification could occur.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will move around the western side of a high pressure system over India. The high will steer the tropical cyclone toward the north-northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track the core of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will pass west of Mumbai, India. Rainbands on the eastern side of the tropical cyclone could produce gusty winds, drop locally heavy rain and bring high waves to the west coast of India in Karnataka, Goa and Maharastra. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae could approach the coast of Gujarat near Diu in 36 hours. Tauktae could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when the center nears the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Forms over Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 01A formed over the southeastern Arabian Sea on Friday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone 01A was located at latitude 12.4°N and longitude 73.3°E which put it about 450 miles (725 km) south of Mumbai, India, Philippines. The tropical cyclone was moving toward the northeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

An area of low pressure strengthened into a tropical cyclone over the southeastern Arabian Sea on Friday. More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Cyclone 01A. Thunderstorms were also increasing in bands revolving around the center of the tropical cyclone. The strongest rainbands were in the western half of the circulation. Bands in the eastern side of the tropical cyclone were dropping locally heavy rain and producing high waves along the coasts of Kerala and Karnataka. Storms near the center of Tropical Cyclone 01A generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north and east of the system. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the southern half of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the northern half of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone 01A will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 31°C. It will move the western portion of an upper level ridge over India and the eastern Arabian Sea. The upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone 01A will intensify and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon within 24 hours. Once an inner core with an eye and an eyewall develops, rapid intensification could occur.

Tropical Cyclone 01A will move around the western side of a high pressure system over India. The high will steer the tropical cyclone toward the north-northwest during the next two days. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone 01A will stay west of India during the weekend. Rainbands on the eastern side of the tropical cyclone could produce gusty winds, drop locally heavy rain and bring high waves to the west coast of India. Tropical Cyclone 01A could move over the northern Arabian Sea by the end of the weekend.

Tropical Depression Drops Rain on Mindanao

Tropical Depression 03W dropped rain on Mindanao on Thursday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression 03W was located at latitude 7.7°N and longitude 124.7°E which put it about 45 miles (75 km) northwest of Davao, Philippines. The tropical depression was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Depression 03W made landfall on the east coast of Mindanao near Manay on Thursday. The depression generated showers and thunderstorms as it moved over Mindanao. Some of the rainbands revolving around the center of the tropical depression dropped heavy rain over parts of Mindanao. The circulation around Tropical Depression 03W weakened steadily after it moved over land. It is likely to continue to weaken as it moves west across the southern Philippines.

Tropical Depression Forms East of Mindanao

Tropical Depression 03W formed east of Mindanao on Wednesday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression 03W was located at latitude 7.1°N and longitude 129.6°E which put it about 275 miles (475 km) east of Davao, Philippines. The tropical depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of a small low pressure system east of Mindanao on Wednesday and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center designated the system as Tropical Depression 03W. More thunderstorms were also forming in bands that were revolving around center of the depression. Storms near the center of circulation were began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression 03W will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the middle of a small upper level ridge east of the Philippines. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Depression will intensify during the next 24 hours and it is likely to strengthen to a tropical storm.

Tropical Depression 03W will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the depression toward the west-northwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression 03W will approach the east coast of Mindanao in a little over 24 hours. It will likely be a tropical storm when it approaches the coast. The system will drop locally heavy rain over Mindanao and flash floods could occur.

Andres Weakens to a Tropical Depression

Former Tropical Storm Andres weakened to a tropical depression on Monday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Andres was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 109.8°W which put it about 475 miles (765 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California. Andres was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Strong vertical wind shear caused former Tropical Storm Andres to weaken to a tropical depression on Monday afternoon. An upper level trough northwest of Baja California was producing strong southwesterly winds which were blowing across the top of Tropical Depression Andres. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear and they were blowing the tops off of thunderstorms that tried to form. A few thunderstorms developed east of the center of Andres earlier on Monday, but the strong upper level winds blew the tops off of those storms. The circulation around Tropical Depression Andres consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds on Monday afternoon.

Tropical Depression Andres will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next several days. Andres will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 26°C. However, the upper level trough northwest of Baja California will continue to produce strong upper level winds over Tropical Depression Andres. The strong upper level winds will blow the tops off any thunderstorms that begin to form and the circulation around Andres will gradually weaken.

Since the circulation around Tropical Depression Andres exists primarily in the lower levels, it will be steered by the wind closer to the surface. A large surface high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean will steer Andres toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Andres will dissipate southwest of Baja California later this week.

TD 01E Strengthens to Tropical Storm Andres

Former Tropical Depression One-E strengthened to Tropical Storm Andres southwest of Mexico on Sunday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Andres was located at latitude 14.1°N and longitude 107.9°W which put it about 620 miles (1000 km) south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California. Andres was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

The circulation around former Tropical Depression One-E strengthened on Sunday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Andres. The circulation around Andres was exhibiting more organization. Storms near the center of the circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Andres. The strongest rainbands were in the eastern half of the circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Andres. The winds in the other parts of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Andres will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Andres will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 28°C. It will move under the center of an upper level ridge southwest of Mexico. The winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Andres could strengthen during the next 24 hours. An upper level trough over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean will approach Andres from the west on Monday. The trough will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical storm. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. More wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Andres to weaken early next week.

Tropical Storm Andres will move around the southwestern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico and Mexico. The high will steer Andres toward the northwest on Sunday. Tropical Storm Andres will move southeast of a large high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean during the early part of next week. That high pressure system will steer Andres toward the west. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Andres will remain south of Baja California.