Monthly Archives: February 2023

Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Transitions to an Extratropical Cyclone

Former Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle made a transition to an extratropical cyclone northwest of New Zealand on Friday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of former Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle was located at latitude 27.2°S and longitude 165.3°E which put it about 670 miles (1080 km) northwest of Auckland, New Zealand. Gabrielle was moving toward the southeast at 29 m.p.h. (46 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Former Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle made a transition to an extratropical cyclone on Friday. Gabrielle moved over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24˚C. An upper level trough east of Australia produced northwesterly winds that blew toward the top of Gabrielle’s circulation. Those winds cause strong vertical wind shear. A combination of cooler water and strong vertical wind shear caused former Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle to make a transition to a strong extratropical cyclone. Strong thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southern half of the extratropical cyclone. Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The transition to an extratropical cyclone caused the size of the low pressure system to expand. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 330 miles (530 km) from the center of circulation.

The upper level trough east of Australia will steer the extratropical cyclone quickly toward the southeast. On its anticipated track, former Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle could affect northern New Zealand during the weekend. The extratropical cyclone will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to northern New Zealand. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Intensifies to Equivalent of a Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Coral Sea on Thursday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle was located at latitude 20.1°S and longitude 155.6°E which put it about 565 miles (910 km) north-northeast of Brisbane, Australia. Gabrielle was moving toward the southeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 971 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle intensified over the Coral Sea on Thursday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Gabrielle’s circulation. A small eye appeared to be forming at the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Gabrielle’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Gabrielle will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. An upper level trough near the east coast of Australia will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Gabrielle’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough near the east coast of Australia will steer Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle toward the southeast during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Gabrielle will move between Australia and New Caledonia. Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to New Caledonia. Gabrielle will move over cooler water during the weekend and the vertical wind shear will increase. Cooler water and more wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone. Gabrielle could affect northern New Zealand as a strong extratropical cyclone in a few days.

Tropical Cyclone Dingani Forms over South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Dingani formed over the South Indian Ocean south-southeast of Diego Garcia on Thursday morning. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dingani was located at latitude 16.9°S and longitude 88.6°E which put it about 1305 miles (2110 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia. Dingani was moving toward the west-southwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean strengthened on Thursday morning and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Dingani. The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Dingani was asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of Dingani’s circulation. Bands in the other parts of Dingani consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Tropical Cyclone Dingani was moving under the western end of an upper level ridge over the Southeast Indian Ocean. The upper level ridge was producing northeasterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Dingani’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear was contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Dingani.

Tropical Cyclone Dingani will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Dingani will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. However, the upper level ridge will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Dingani could strengthen gradually during the next 36 hours, if the upper level winds do not get any stronger. If the upper level winds get stronger, then Dingani will not intensify.

Tropical Cyclone Dingani will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Dingani toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dingani will pass far south of Diego Garcia.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Freddy moved farther away from Western Australia. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 109.3°E which put it about 560 miles (900 km) north-northwest of Learmonth, Australia. Freddy was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Moves Away from Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Freddy moved away from Western Australia on Wednesday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 16.1°S and longitude 112.7°E which put it about 440 miles (710 km) north of Learmonth, Australia. Freddy was moving toward the west-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy started to weaken as it moved away from Western Australia on Wednesday morning. Freddy was moving under the northwestern part of an upper level ridge over Australia. The upper level ridge was producing easterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear caused the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Freddy to become asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Freddy’s circulation. Bands in the eastern side of Freddy consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment that is unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. However, the upper level ridge over Australia will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear is likely to cause Tropical Cyclone Freddy to weaken during the next 24 hours. The wind shear could lessen when Freddy moves farther west on Friday. If the shear lessens, then Tropical Cyclone Freddy could start to intensify again.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle strengthened over the Coral Sea. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle was located at latitude 17.2°S and longitude 152.8°E which put it about 450 miles (725 km) east of Cairns, Australia. Gabrielle was moving toward the south-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb. Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle is forecast to move toward the southeast and to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Forms over the Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle formed over the Coral Sea on Tuesday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle was located at latitude 15.7°S and longitude 153.3°E which put it about 230 miles (370 km) east-northeast of Willis Island. Gabrielle was moving toward the south-southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A low pressure system over the Coral Sea strengthened on Tuesday night and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern and eastern side of the center of Gabrielle’s circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle.

Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Gabrielle will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the center of an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle will intensify during the next 24 hours. Gabrielle could intensify rapidly at times and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Southwest Pacific Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Gabrielle toward the south. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle will remain east of Australia. An upper level trough over Australia will steer Gabrielle toward the southeast later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Freddy rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean north of Western Australia on Monday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 14.1°S and longitude 117.2°E which put it about 400 miles (645 km) northwest of Broome, Australia. Freddy was moving toward the southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Monday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped completely around the center of Freddy’s circulation. A small circular eye formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Freddy’ circulation. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will intensify during the next 36 hours and it is likely to strengthen rapidly at times. Freddy could intensify to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Western Australia. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west-southwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Freddy will stay northwest of Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Develops Rapidly North of Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Freddy developed rapidly over the South Indian Ocean north of Western Australia on Monday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 12.8°S and longitude 118.4°E which put it about 440 miles (710 km) northwest of Broome, Australia. Freddy was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean north of Western Australia strengthened rapidly on Monday morning and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Freddy. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern and western sides of the center of Freddy’s circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Freddy was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Freddy.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will intensify during the next 36 hours and it could strengthen rapidly at times. Freddy is likely to intensify to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 36 hours. It could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Western Australia. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west-southwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Freddy will stay north of Western Australia.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, a Tropical Low (also designated as Invest 94S) was east of Cocos Islands. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 12.5°S and longitude 99.9°E which put it about 210 miles (335 km) east of Cocos Islands. The Tropical Low was moving toward the southeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb. The Tropical Low is forecast to turn toward the southwest and to strengthen to a tropical cyclone later this week.