Monthly Archives: October 2023

Philippe Prompts Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda

The potential effects of Tropical Storm Philippe prompted Bermuda to issue a Tropical Storm Warning. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located at latitude 22.6°N and longitude 65.9°W which put it about 675 miles (1085 km) south of Bermuda. Philippe was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Philippe weakened a little more on Wednesday. An upper level trough east of Florida produced strong southwesterly winds that blew across the top of Philippe’s circulation. Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear. The strong upper level winds also blew the tops off of many of the thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Philippe. A few thunderstorms were able to develop in the southeastern quadrant of Philippe’s circulation. However, most of the bands revolving around the center of Philippe’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) in the eastern side of Philippe’s circulation. The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Philippe were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move through a region that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Philippe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. However, the upper level trough east of Florida will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear will prevent Tropical Storm Philippe from intensifying during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Philippe toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Philippe will move closer to Bermuda. Philippe could reach Bermuda on Friday.

Typhoon Koinu Approaches Taiwan

Typhoon Koinu approached Taiwan from east on Tuesday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Koinu was located at latitude 22.1°N and longitude 123.3°E which put it about 175 miles (280 km) east of Hengchun, Taiwan. Koinu was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 953 mb.

Typhoon Koinu was the equivalent of a major hurricane as it approached Taiwan on Tuesday night. A circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) was at the center of Koinu’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Koinu. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the typhoon.

The size of the circulation around Typhoon Koinu increased on Tuesday. Winds to typhoon force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Koinu’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Koinu was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 29.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 49.8. Typhoon Koinu was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Frances when Frances hit southeast Florida in 2004.

Typhoon Koinu will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Koinu will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Koinu is likely to intensify during the next 12 hours.

Typhoon Koinu will move around the southern part of a high pressure system over eastern Asia and the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Koinu toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the center Typhoon Koinu will reach the coast of southeast Taiwan in less than 24 hours. Typhoon Koinu is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it approaches Taiwan. Koinu will bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Taiwan. Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations. Typhoon Koinu could also cause widespread outages of electricity.

Philippe Weakens North of the Virgin Islands

Tropical Storm Philippe weakened north of the Virgin Islands on Tuesday. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located at latitude 19.0°N and longitude 64.4°W which put it about 55 miles (90 km) northeast of St. Thomas. Philippe was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the British Virgin Islands.

Tropical Storm Philippe weakened north of the Virgin Islands on Tuesday. An upper level ridge over the eastern Caribbean Sea produced strong westerly winds that blew across the top of Philippe’s circulation. Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear. The strong upper level winds blew the tops off of most of the thunderstorms in the southeastern part of Tropical Storm Philippe. Most of the bands revolving around the center of Philippe’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 170 miles (275 km) in the eastern side of Philippe’s circulation. The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Philippe were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move through a region that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Philippe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. However, the upper level ridge over the eastern Caribbean Sea will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The wind shear will likely cause Tropical Storm Philippe to weaken more during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Philippe toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Philippe will move away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Bands in the southeastern part of Tropical Storm Philippe did drop heavy rain over the Northern Leeward Islands during Monday night and Tuesday morning. Heavy rain fell on parts of Guadeloupe, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla. There were reports of flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Lidia Forms Southwest of Mexico

Tropical Storm Lidia formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico on Tuesday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was located at latitude 11.°N and longitude 107.0°W which put it about 790 miles (1270 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Lidia was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico strengthened on Tuesday morning and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Lidia. The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Lidia was asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in a bands in the western part of Lidia’s circulation. Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Lidia consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms in the bands in the western part of Lidia started to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm. Wind to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the western side of Lidia’s circulation. The winds in the eastern part of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Lidia will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Lidia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move over the southern part of an upper level ridge that extends from Mexico to the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Lidia’s circulation. Those winds are contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms and they will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be enough to stop Lidia from strengthening. Tropical Storm Lidia could intensify gradually during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Lidia will move around the western part of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Lidia toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Lidia will move farther away from the west coast of Mexico.

Philippe Prompts Tropical Storm Warning for Barbuda

The proximity of Tropical Storm Philippe prompted the issuance of a Tropical Storm Warning for Barbuda. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Antigua. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located at latitude 17.1°N and longitude 60.7°W which put it about 80 miles (130 km) east-southeast of Barbuda. Philippe was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Barbuda. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Antigua.

The center of Tropical Storm Philippe moved closer to Barbuda on Monday morning. The circulation around Philippe did not change much since Sunday night. An upper level ridge over the eastern Caribbean Sea continued to produce northwesterly winds that blew toward the top of Philippe’s circulation. Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear . The vertical wind shear caused the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Philippe to be asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southeastern part of Philippe’s circulation. Bands near the center of Tropical Storm Philippe and in the other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The distribution of wind speeds was also asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 170 miles (275 km) in the eastern side of Philippe’s circulation. The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Philippe were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move through a region that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Philippe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. However, the upper level ridge over the eastern Caribbean Sea will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The wind shear is likely to prevent intensification of Tropical Storm Philippe during the next 12 hours. Philippe could move into a region where the upper level winds are weaker on Tuesday. If the vertical wind shear decreases, then Tropical Storm Philippe could start to intensify.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Philippe toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center Tropical Storm Philippe will pass near Barbuda during Monday night. The strongest winds in Philippe’s circulation are likely to pass east of Barbuda. Winds to tropical storm force could affect Barbuda, if the center moves close enough to the island. The winds in Barbuda and Antigua will blow from the south after Tropical Storm Philippe moves north of the islands. A band of heavier rain could pass over Barbuda and Antigua on Tuesday. Heavier rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Typhoon Koinu Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Typhoon Koinu rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the Western North Pacific Ocean east-southeast of Taiwan on Sunday night. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Koinu was located at latitude 19.9°N and longitude 126.4°E which put it about 405 miles (650 km) east-southeast of Hengchun, Taiwan. Koinu was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 953 mb.

Typhoon Koinu rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the past 24 hours. A circular eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) was at the center of Koinu’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Typhoon Koinu. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.

The size of the circulation around Typhoon Koinu increased when Koinu rapidly intensified. Winds to typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Koinu’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Koinu was 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 17.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 39.4.

Typhoon Koinu will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Koinu will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean and eastern Asia. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Koinu’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Typhoon Koinu is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Koinu will move around the southern part of a high pressure system over eastern Asia. The high pressure system will steer Koinu toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Typhoon Koinu will move closer to Taiwan. Koinu will approach southern Taiwan in 48 hours. Typhoon Koinu is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it approaches Taiwan. Koinu will bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Taiwan. Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Philippe Prompts Watches for Antigua and Barbuda

A potential risk caused by Tropical Storm Philippe prompted the issuance of Tropical Storm Watches for Antigua and Barbuda on Sunday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 59.1°W which put it about 155 miles (245 km) east of Guadeloupe. Philippe was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Antigua and Barbuda.

Tropical Storm Philippe did not move much on Sunday. The circulation around Philippe also did not change much on Sunday. An upper level ridge over the eastern Caribbean Sea continued to produce northwesterly winds that blew toward the top of Philippe’s circulation. Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear caused the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Philippe to be asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southeastern part of Philippe’s circulation. Bands near the center of Tropical Storm Philippe and in the other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The distribution of wind speeds was also asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 170 miles (275 km) in the eastern side of Philippe’s circulation. The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Philippe were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move through a region that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Philippe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. However, the upper level ridge over the eastern Caribbean Sea will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The wind shear is likely to prevent intensification of Tropical Storm Philippe on Monday.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Philippe toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Philippe could move a little closer to Antigua and Barbuda on Monday.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, former Tropical Storm Rina weakened to a tropical depression northeast of the Leeward Islands. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Rina was located at latitude 27.1°N and longitude 55.4°W which put it about 785 miles (1265 km) northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands. Rina was moving toward the north at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

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Koinu Strengthens to a Typhoon

Former Tropical Storm Koinu strengthened to a typhoon over the Western North Pacific Ocean east-southeast of Taiwan on Sunday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Koinu was located at latitude 18.6°N and longitude 128.5°E which put it about 570 miles (920 km) east-southeast of Hengchun, Taiwan. Koinu was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Koinu intensified rapidly during the past 24 hours. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Typhoon Koinu. A circular eye with a diameter off 17 miles (28 km) developed at the center of Koinu’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Typhoon Koinu, Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the typhoon. Winds to typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Koinu’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Koinu will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Koinu will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. ‘ It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level ridge centered west of Taiwan. The ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Koinu’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be strong enough to completely stop intensification. Typhoon Koinu will intensify during the next 24 hours. Koinu could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Storm Koinu will move around the southern part of a high pressure system over eastern Asia. The high pressure system will steer Koinu toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Koinu will move closer to Taiwan. Koinu could approach southern Taiwan in three days. Typhoon Koinu is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it approaches Taiwan.

Tropical Storm Philippe Drifts East of the Leeward Islands

Tropical Storm Philippe drifted over the Atlantic Ocean east of the Leeward Islands on Saturday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located at latitude 16.1°N and longitude 57.0°W which put it about 430 miles (690 km) east-southeast of the Northern Leeward Islands. Philippe was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Storm Philippe continued to drift slowly east of the Leeward Islands on Saturday. The circulation around Tropical Storm Philippe did not change much on Saturday. An upper level ridge over the eastern Caribbean Sea produced northwesterly winds that blew toward the top of Philippe’s circulation. Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear caused the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Philippe to be asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southeastern part of Philippe’s circulation. Bands near the center of Tropical Storm Philippe and in the other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The distribution of wind speeds was also asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) in the eastern side of Philippe’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the western side of Tropical Storm Philippe.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move through a region that will become marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Philippe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. However, the upper level ridge will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear during the first half of Sunday. The upper level winds could weaken later on Sunday. If the upper level winds weaken, then the strong wind shear will decrease and Tropical Storm Philippe could start to intensify.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Philippe toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Philippe could move a little closer to the Northern Leeward Islands on Sunday.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Rina weakened northeast of Tropical Storm Philippe. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Rina was located at latitude 23.5°N and longitude 52.8°W which put it about 760 miles (1220 km) east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands. Rina was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.