Fred Strengthens Back to a Tropical Storm

Former Tropical Storm Fred strengthened back to a tropical storm over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located at latitude 26.1°N and longitude 84.9°W which put it about 335 miles (540 km) south-southeast of Pensacola, Florida. Fred was moving toward the north-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Wakulla/Jefferson County Line to Navarre, Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect from the portion of the coast from Navarre, Florida to the Alabama/Florida border.

Data from a reconnaissance plane on Sunday morning indicated that a low level center of circulation had redeveloped in Tropical Storm Fred. The circulation around Fred was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Fred and the strongest winds were occurring in those bands. Bands in the western half of Fred consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Fred generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Fred. The winds in the other parts of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Fred will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Fred will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move between an upper level low over the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico and an upper level ridge centered over Cuba. The upper low and the ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fred’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent Fred from intensifying. Tropical Storm Fred is likely to intensify gradually during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Fred will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fred toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Fred will approach the coast of Northwest Florida on Monday. Fred will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Northwest Florida. Tropical Storm Fred could also cause a storm surge of up to six feet (1.8 meters) along portions of the coast.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Grace was passing south of Puerto Rico. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located at latitude 17.2°N and longitude 66.0°W which put it about 85 miles (135 km) south of San Juan, Puerto Rico. Grace was moving toward the west-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (56 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Puerto Rico including Culebra and Vieques, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Samana, Dominican Republic to the southern border with Haiti. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the entire coast of Haiti and from Samana, Dominican Republic to the northern border with Haiti.