Hurricane Ida Crosses Western Cuba

Hurricane Ida moved across western Cuba on Friday evening. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Ida was located at latitude 23.0°N and longitude 84.0°W which put it about 105 miles (165 km) west of Havana, Cuba. Ida was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River. The Hurricane Warning included New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. Hurricane Watches were in effect for the portions of the coast from Cameron to Intracoastal City, Louisiana and from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border. Hurricane Warnings were also in effect for the Cuba provinces of the Isle of Youth, Pinar del Rio and Artemisa. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border.

The center of Hurricane Ida passed over western Cuba on Friday evening. Even though the center of Ida was over land for several hours, weather radars in Cuba and reports from a reconnaissance plane indicated that the core of Hurricane Ida remained intact. A circular eye with a diameter of 26 miles (42 km) was at the center of Ida. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Ida. Storms near the generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north of the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Ida. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Ida will move through an environment that will be very favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours.  Hurricane Ida will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30˚C.  It will move under an upper level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend.  The winds will be weak in the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Ida will strengthen now that the center is moving over the Gulf of Mexico. Ida is likely to undergo a period of rapid intensification during the weekend that will cause it to strengthen to a major hurricane.  Ida could reach Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Sunday.

Hurricane Ida will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that extends from the Atlantic Ocean to the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  The high will steer Ida toward the northwest during the next 36 hours.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Ida is likely to approach the coast of Louisiana as a major hurricane on Sunday.  Ida will be capable of causing major damage when it approaches the coast. It could cause a storm surge of up to 10 to 15 feet (3 to 4.5 meters). A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the coast from west of Vermillion Bay to the Mississippi/Alabama border. The Storm Surge Warning includes Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas. Hurricane Ida could start to move more slowly when it nears the coast on Sunday. That could prolong the duration of strong winds. Widespread power outages could occur in southeast Louisiana. Ida will also drop heavy rain over parts of eastern Louisiana and Mississippi. Flash floods could occur in that region. Mandatory and voluntary evacuations have been announced for parts of southeastern Louisiana. Ida probably will not be as strong or as large as Hurricane Laura was last year.  Ida could be a little bigger and a little stronger than Hurricane Delta was when it approached Louisiana in 2020. Ida is likely to be bigger and strong than Hurricane Zeta was when Zeta hit the same part of Louisiana in 2020.